I have been away from the boards for a few months due to my new job, but I see a nice bet for tomorrow. I hope everybody on the board is doing well since I've last been here.
Robredo @ -110 risk $2200 - Kohly played out of his mind against Djoker, however in fairness Nole did not play at his highest level of tennis. As we have seen many times this season, Djokovic was unfocused and allowed his opponent to take control of the match. This is the difference that I see with Robredo, as he is extremely solild, especially on his favourite clay court. Looking back at his results this season, with the exception of the loss to Monaco at Monte Carlo it has taken a high level of opponent to defeat him. On the other hand, Kohly has been playing great to start the clay season but all of his losses have come at the hands of clay court specialists, a category that Tommy can be found in.
The H2H favours Tommy nicely, with a win in Rome earlier this year and a victory in K's home nation of Germany last season, both on clay. Add that to a victory on Kohly's favoured hard court surface in 2007 and it appears that Robrebo just has Kohly's number. These do have a rocky past, as an incident in Germany where Robredo caused a stir by refusing to continue until a point was replayed had Kohly heated.
Kohly may be riding an emotional high after a huge win, but against a solid player like Tommy he will have to maintain that high level again. With history on Tommy's side, I believe the Spaniard will make it 4 in a row and put himself in a position to challenge Del Potro/Tsonga.
yesterday down 3.56 units, WTD down .93, YTD up 31.56 units
Yesterday got off to a bad start and didn't get better at Indian Wells, thankfully the late night Kyoto bet saved me a little. Just one play for now and the Indian Wells bets tomorrow:
Recouderc @ - 115 for 1 unit - The Frenchman played very well against Marrero, taking a close 3 set match in which he put lots of pressure on Marrero's serve. Miranda has also playd well this week pulling off two 3 set victories over decent opponents, but I believe the difference here is that Recouderc is a class about him. Miranda typically plays the South American Challenger circuit where he plays the same S. American and USA mugs over again, while Recouderc tends to play the better Challengers and some ATP as well. Looking over Miranda's results from the past year he does not have any notable wins while Recouderc has beaten players like Chardy, Rochus, Gicquel and Hernych.
yesterday town 5.7 units, WTD down 3.7, YTD up 22 units
I'm just glad that yesterday is over, couldn't get a break. Heres the picks for today:
Ouanna over Ascione @ -115 for 2 units - Two players going in opposite directions, Ouanna is looking like the next Tsonga, a big and powerful player. Ascione has seen his best days behind him and I doubt he can keep up with the spped and strength of the younger layer. Ascione won their only meeting, but that was 2 years ago and on clay court, I expect Ouanna to take him out on the hard today.
Hrbaty x Djok x Murray @ +197 risk .5 units - Hrbaty returns to the Challengers in order to get some wins and confidence, can't see him losing to Kudryavtsev , who is nothing special. I think Djok and Cilic will be a good match, but Novak actually has something to play for in Dubai with the new points system and I think he will play at his top level today. Murray should beat Gasquet, it looks like that ankle injury isn't serious and Gasquet struggled against Bolelli yetsterday. Murray showed some great serves against Clement that I think will have Gasquet smashing his racquet because he can't get to them.