It's my opinion that units are severely misunderstood by the masses. When you take into account the very definition of a unit you realize that anyone that plays, let's say, 10 units on their P.O.Y. is either incredibly misinformed or simply ignorant to the intended use and meaning of what a unit is and does for, you, the bettor.
In short units are a percentage of ones bankroll.
This means units are dynamic - they change with your bankroll.
This is why I shake my head at bettors that throw around large unit plays because frankly it's just wrong.
Now I'm not telling you how to spend your money gambling (at least I
hope it's your money. lol) but what I'm saying is that making those
kinds of plays flies in the face of the very definition of a unit - a percentage of ones bankroll. Setting a unit to a fixed dollar
amount is not applying the unit to ones bankroll properly.
Why?
Because
utilizing a small percentage of ones bankroll protects the bettor from
going bankrupt when he/she hits the inevitable losing streak. For
example, if you have a bankroll of $500 it is suggested you play no more
than $10 (2%) to $25 (5%) per play. Now I know that immediately you're
thinking,"$10 to $25 bets with a $500 bankroll? How am I supposed to
make money that way?". The short answer is - it's a marathon not a
sprint. That's something I'll touch on shortly but for now lets go back
to percentages. Although the percentage a bettor uses varies the
standard or suggested percentage is 2% with a maximum of 5%. So let's
say you use 5% to define your unit. With a $500 bankroll you would have
to lose 20 plays in a row to go bankrupt. No matter how bad you may run
you minimize the possibility that you'll go bankrupt by adhering to unit
play as it's defined. If you used the suggested 2% you would have to
lose 50 in a row before you had to reach for your wallet. Understanding
that bad runs are inevitable I believe it's safe to say that no one has
ever lost 50 in a row (and if you have you may want to consider another
hobby) so what does that mean? It means never going bust. Never going
bankrupt. Never reaching for your wallet. It means a lot. This is why
you should dismiss any "pro" (tout) that suggests you tail his G.O.Y.
and bet 10 or any exorbitant amount of units on it. That bettor (tout)
isn't using units properly. He can't be. That is beyond horrible money
management to bet half your bank or even 1/4 of your bankroll on one
play. Those kind of moves will have you reaching for your wallet
regularly.
After you determine your bankroll and the percentage
of that bankroll you will use per unit you need to decide whether to
flat bet or rate your bets. Flat betting is placing one unit per play
and no more. Rating your bets is using a variance of 1 to (X) number of
units for a play based on the "strength" of that play. Ideally you want
to keep each play on the lower end of the scale and keep the higher end
of the scale plays for those plays in which the planets seem to have
aligned. Although the scale a bettor uses varies I use a scale of 1 to 3
units per play with the occasionally rare 4 unit play (that's because
using 2% of your bankroll for a unit means a 3 unit play is 6% of your
bankroll while a unit at 5% means that 3 unit play becomes 15% of your
bankroll.) I used to flat bet in my early years of gambling but have
since switched to rating my plays and have been happy with the results.
From what I've read most winning bettors flat bet. I don't disagree with
them but the reason I made that switch from flat betting is that I got
frustrated seeing that the plays I LOVED would win while my, let's say,
'regular' plays that lost would cancel them out. Just like the amount of
your bankroll and the percentage per unit you'll use, determining
whether to flat bet or rate your bets is up to what you're comfortable
with.
Remember the "marathon/sprint" comment I made? Well the
article below uses the "battle/war" analogy and delves into the concept
in further detail. This article is one of a few I copy/pasta'd to a text
file some years back when I was researching the subject of units and
money management and I believe it might be of some help.
Having said all that, regardless of your approach GL with all your gambling endeavors! See you in the forums
---------------------------
Money Management – The Amateur’s Downfall
By William D. Foote
Does
anyone know why so many people lose at sports betting? Most think it is
because of poor handicapping. While this can be true, it is not why
most people lose. We know hundreds and hundreds of folks that are
excellent handicappers or have access to winning picks that still lose
their shirts year in and year out.
Quite simply, the vast
majority of all gamblers maintain poor money management skills. That
simple reason above all others is why they lose money. There are those
that manage money poorly because they are uninformed and there are those
that manage poorly because they are undisciplined. Unfortunately most
often times, gamblers are uniformed and undisciplined.
We could
write an entire twelve Volume Encyclopedia length case study on this
subject. Given our space and time, we are going to summarize and
hopefully you will get the gist. We want to talk about betting
discipline and bet size. They actually go hand in hand.
If you
are serious about success, it is imperative that you make a plan and
remain disciplined. Your plan must entail proper bet size per unit or
per game. You should never risk more than 5% of your bankroll on any one
play with an average play being roughly 2% to 3% of your bankroll. We
would guess that 99.9% of gamblers are wagering too much on each game
and we strongly urge you to not fall into the same trap.
Most
people will wonder, 2% of bankroll? How the hell am I going to make any
real money that way? Our answer is very simple. Exert a little patience
and a little discipline over a period of time. If you do this, 2% of a
growing bankroll can earn you a full time living no matter how small
your bankroll is to start. Not too long ago, we wrote an article showing
how a $2,000 bankroll could turn into $7,000,000 in twenty years
playing 4% on each game and picking only 55%.
It is imperative to
bet a low percentage of bankroll to achieve success. Over the course of
any season, and especially in the daily sports, you will encounter
winning as well as losing streaks. If you are betting too high of
bankroll percentage, one losing streak could eat up your entire bankroll
and put you out of business. We cannot stress enough how important this
concept is to your success.
A typical example would be a player
that has a bankroll of $1000 and bets $100 on each game. One of two
things will happen to this player. He will either hit a cold streak and
be out of the game before he knows it, or he will hit a hot streak, up
his bets to $200 or $300 per game and then hit a losing streak and be
forced out of the game. Quite simply, there is no way to win if you are
betting 10% of your bankroll on each game. Losing streaks will happen,
as simple mathematics dictates this fact.
The next area we need
to focus on is discipline. This is where most folks fail miserably. We
have been betting full time for nearly many years. In the beginning, we
were unsuccessful because we lacked discipline. We always could pick
winners, but sticking to a very strict plan was the problem. If there is
any one piece of advice we could lend amateur sports bettors it is
this; you are not going to win every day or even every week. Do not
concern yourselves with the battles and focus on the war.
Do you
know how often we get emails from clients that sound like this, “I was
wondering about the free service I am entitled to because of the losing
week we had”. We will read this, scratch our heads for a moment and
reply back. “Losing week? You should have gone 7-3 and picked up 9
units. We went 1-0 on Thursday, 1-0 on Friday, 4-0 on Saturday and 1-3
on Sunday. How did you lose money going 7-3?” To which the client
replies.
“Well, I was betting $100 per game Thursday, Friday and
Saturday and made $600. On Sunday I decided to up my bets to $300 a
piece in the morning and went 1-2 and lost $360. Since I was down over
$300 dollars for Sunday, I bet $700 on the Sunday Night Game. This way I
could win back the $360 lost earlier in the day and still show a Sunday
profit. Well, the Sunday Night Game lost and now I am in the hole $530
for the week and you all said of I did not show a profit I would get
free service.”
Basically, this person had turned a 7-3 weekend
into a lose money proposition. In other words, the picks he bet went 70%
and he lost money. Day in and day out we receive similar emails with
similar type circumstances.
The difference between professional
gamblers and amateur gamblers is 20% the quality of picks they are
playing and 80% the way they manage money. In the case we had described
above, the individual failed to accept that Sunday was not going to
produce a net profit for him (the battle). Instead of realizing that
Thursday through Sunday was a great success that netted a significant
profit (the war), they chose to lose site of the overall plan.
We
wish we had more time and more space to help you all understand these
concepts, as they are extremely valuable. It pains us to see folks lose
over and over because they do not understand money management and the
concept of long term profit as opposed to near term foolishness. Make a
plan, establish a bankroll, stick to the plan and you will make money.
Don’t do those things and you will not. [superiordaily.com]