Anyone who wants to know where I am....
I am under the Username Randizzle14 Only. I am currently only Posting at 2 locations.
1. www.therx.com
2. www.statfox.com
These are the only 2 places on the web that I can be found. All other websites with anyone named Randizzle posting is a "Fraud", "Scammer". Also, I am NOT sending out ANY e-mails with plays either. All my plays are currently FREE at the two reputable forums above. If you see someone else posting under my name call them out and inform them thay are the lowest form of life we have.
Dizz
Was tired of Physics.....sitting there taking a break, and a light bulb turned on
.....Realized a key component I could use to come up with what I believe to be "pretty accurate" Ranking System. Anyway ran a spread sheet, plugged in the formula and here is what is spit out. I'm not sure if this is useful at All or not. I feel there can be value here, haven't really broke it down. I was just taking a break and thought I would provide you guys with something else to help analyze games for the week.Wouldn't call these power rankings because there are added components to it that I do not include in powere rankings......Honestly not sure what you would call these. Take it for what it's worth...
|
1
|
Florida
|
71.85
|
|
2
|
USC
|
71.51
|
|
3
|
Missouri Tigers
|
67.86
|
|
4
|
Texas
|
65.83
|
|
5
|
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
65.10
|
|
6
|
Oklahoma Sooners
|
64.02
|
|
7
|
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
62.14
|
|
8
|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
61.39
|
|
9
|
Boise State Broncos
|
60.44
|
|
10
|
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
59.61
|
|
11
|
TCU
|
59.30
|
|
12
|
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
56.31
|
|
13
|
Georgia Bulldogs
|
55.13
|
|
14
|
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
54.77
|
|
15
|
Oregon Ducks
|
54.42
|
|
16
|
Arizona
|
54.07
|
|
17
|
Utah
|
53.13
|
|
18
|
BYU
|
52.71
|
|
19
|
Oregon State Beavers
|
52.69
|
|
20
|
California Golden Bears
|
51.72
|
|
21
|
Florida State Seminoles
|
51.32
|
|
22
|
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
49.88
|
|
23
|
N Carolina Tar Heels
|
48.55
|
|
24
|
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
47.64
|
|
25
|
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
47.40
|
|
26
|
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
47.22
|
|
27
|
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
|
47.02
|
|
28
|
Ole Mississippi Rebels
|
46.87
|
|
29
|
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
46.60
|
|
30
|
Miami Hurricanes
|
46.40
|
|
31
|
Ball State Cardinals
|
45.88
|
|
32
|
S Carolina Gamecocks
|
45.83
|
|
33
|
Clemson Tigers
|
45.34
|
|
34
|
Tennessee Volunteers
|
43.79
|
|
35
|
Michigan State Spartans
|
43.67
|
|
36
|
Air Force Falcons
|
43.63
|
|
37
|
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
43.42
|
|
38
|
Kansas State Wildcats
|
43.24
|
|
39
|
S Florida Bulls
|
43.06
|
|
40
|
Kansas Jayhawks
|
42.86
|
|
41
|
LSU State Fighting Tigers
|
42.74
|
|
42
|
N Illinois Huskies
|
42.62
|
|
43
|
Connecticut Huskies
|
42.51
|
|
44
|
W Virginia Mountaineers
|
42.36
|
|
45
|
Troy Trojans
|
42.28
|
|
46
|
Kentucky Wildcats
|
42.01
|
|
47
|
Baylor Bears
|
41.92
|
|
48
|
Northwestern Wildcats
|
41.76
|
|
49
|
Nevada Wolf Pack
|
41.33
|
|
50
|
Houston Cougars
|
40.86
|
|
51
|
Boston College Eagles
|
40.41
|
|
52
|
San Jose State Spartans
|
39.93
|
|
53
|
Stanford Cardinal
|
38.87
|
|
54
|
Louisville Cardinals
|
38.49
|
|
55
|
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
37.70
|
|
56
|
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
37.41
|
|
57
|
Arkansas State Indians
|
37.30
|
|
58
|
Auburn Tigers
|
37.21
|
|
59
|
W Michigan Broncos
|
36.29
|
|
60
|
Maryland Terrapins
|
36.11
|
|
61
|
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
35.85
|
|
62
|
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
35.78
|
|
63
|
Wisconsin Badgers
|
35.53
|
|
64
|
New Mexico Lobos
|
35.38
|
|
65
|
Hawaii Warriors
|
35.33
|
|
66
|
Navy Midshipmen
|
35.00
|
|
67
|
Duke Blue Devils
|
33.74
|
|
68
|
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
|
32.24
|
|
69
|
Purdue Boilermakers
|
31.76
|
|
70
|
Rice Owls
|
31.17
|
|
71
|
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
31.06
|
|
72
|
UNLV Rebels
|
30.07
|
|
73
|
Texas A&M Aggies
|
29.08
|
|
74
|
E Carolina Pirates
|
28.21
|
|
75
|
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
|
28.20
|
|
76
|
Temple Owls
|
28.04
|
|
77
|
New Mexico State Aggies
|
27.79
|
|
78
|
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
27.78
|
|
79
|
Iowa State Cyclones
|
27.21
|
|
80
|
Virginia Cavaliers
|
26.83
|
|
81
|
Bowling Green Falcons
|
26.36
|
|
82
|
LA Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
|
26.17
|
|
83
|
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
25.84
|
|
84
|
Colorado Buffaloes
|
25.78
|
|
85
|
Fla Intl Golden Panthers
|
25.22
|
|
86
|
Indiana Fightin Hoosiers
|
24.90
|
|
87
|
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
24.90
|
|
88
|
UCLA Bruins
|
24.08
|
|
89
|
Buffalo Bulls
|
24.04
|
|
90
|
Akron Zips
|
23.86
|
|
91
|
C Michigan Chippewas
|
23.39
|
|
92
|
Ohio U Bobcats
|
23.23
|
|
93
|
Colorado State Rams
|
22.33
|
|
94
|
Michigan
|
22.15
|
|
95
|
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
|
22.09
|
|
96
|
UTEP
|
21.80
|
|
97
|
Marshall Thundering Herd
|
20.90
|
|
98
|
W Kentucky Hilltoppers
|
20.82
|
|
99
|
Utah State Aggies
|
20.73
|
|
100
|
Washington Huskies
|
19.83
|
|
101
|
NC State Wolfpack
|
19.26
|
|
102
|
Memphis Tigers
|
18.70
|
|
103
|
UAB Blazers
|
18.37
|
|
104
|
LA Monroe Indians
|
18.32
|
|
105
|
SMU
|
18.16
|
|
106
|
FlA Atlantic Owls
|
17.39
|
|
107
|
San Diego State Aztecs
|
17.26
|
|
108
|
Kent Golden Flashes
|
16.82
|
|
109
|
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
|
15.78
|
|
110
|
Syracuse Orangemen
|
15.18
|
|
111
|
Toledo Rockets
|
14.90
|
|
112
|
UCF Golden Knights
|
14.77
|
|
113
|
Washington State Cougars
|
13.28
|
|
114
|
Army Black Knights
|
12.65
|
|
115
|
Idaho Vandals
|
11.21
|
|
116
|
Wyoming Cowboys
|
9.28
|
|
117
|
E Michigan Hurons
|
8.42
|
|
118
|
Miami of Ohio Redskins
|
7.64
|
|
119
|
Tulane Green Wave
|
7.08
|
|
120
|
North Texas Eagles
|
0.00
|
If used correctly i'm sure you can find some value in these. Good Luck, I hope this helps in some way.Dizz
Alright broke down the numbers and am VERY EXCITED about what has come up. My plays are generally based off of Line value, and where I think they are off. Situations and trends and of course accounting for injuries. HAPPY to find that alot of my plays/leans are either at the top or atleast in top 40% of the plays this spit out. I believe that means my judgement of line value is fairly accurate. (That's what I want to believe...lol) Anyway, I broke down EVERY game so that I could accurately track this thing as a whole. Right now I believe the value to be at the top of this list, but possibly there will be trends where certain ranges fair better than others...that is why I will track. I will put these in order of Strongest to Weakest. Also, the line factors in to each of these Final results, so I used the WAL at this time.
Ok, just so I do not get a lot of questions on how to read this I will explain right here....So listen (or read) up. I have divided these teams into key numbers in order to track at an accurate level. Next to each teams name, ther will be a "+ and then a value" That value represents what the formula believes that particular team will cover by ATS. Hence, the higher the number the better. Next to that in parentheses will be the line ATS based off of WAL numbers at the time I calculated this.
Also, I will add at the bottom VALUE ML bets based on this system. I want to track that as well.
Favored ATS by 10+:Miami Hurricanes: +19.57, (+2.5)Air Force Falcons: +19.48, (-8.5)Kentucky Wildcats: +17.11, (+3)Notre Dame Fighting Irish: +14.14, (-4.5)LSU State Fighting Tigers: +13.66, (-25.5)BYU: +12.88, (-14.5)W Michigan Broncos: +12.87, (-18)TCU: +12.23, (-14)USC: +11.68, (-44)Tulsa +11.18, (-7)Troy Trojans: +10.96, (-10)
Oregon State Beavers: +10.63, (-14)
Purdue Boilermakers +10.61 (-2)
San Jose State Spartans: +10.22, (-16.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes: +10.2, (+2.5)
San Diego State Aztecs: +10, (+5)
Favored ATS by 7.0-9.9:Florida: +8.72, (-5.5)
Boise State Broncos: +8.65, (-20.5)
Kansas State Wildcats: +8.38, (+11)
Utah: +7.75, (-7)
W Kentucky Hilltoppers: +7.32, (-17)
Connecticut Huskies: +7.15, (+4)
Favored ATS by 3.0-6.99:Clemson Tigers: +6.93, (+4.5)Oklahoma State Cowboys: +6.68, (-30.5)Michigan State Spartans: +6.64, (-4.5)Louisville Cardinals: +6.31, (-14)Ole Mississippi Rebels: +6.16, (-6.5)Bowling Green Falcons: +6.04, (-6.5)Hawaii Warriors: +4.6, (-7)Rice Owls: +3.87, (-2.5)Fla Intl Golden Panthers: +3.55, (+7.5)Alabama Crimson Tide: +3.31, (-22.5)Favored ATS by .01-2.99:Navy Midshipmen: +2.96, (-7)South Florida +2.86, (-2.5)Texas Tech Red Raiders: +2.81, (+4)Texas A&M Aggies: +2.8, (-3.5)Baylor Bears: +2.78, (+20.5)Oregon Ducks: +2.7, (+3)Nebraska Cornhuskers: +2.62, (+22)Duke Blue Devils: +2.46, (+7.5)Minnesota Golden Gophers: +1.96, (-6)UAB Blazers: +1.78, (+8.5)Fresno State Bulldogs: +1.71, (-4.5)Indiana Fightin Hoosiers: +1.51, (-2.5)Washington State Cougars: +1.41, (+30)Tennessee Volunteers: +.96, (+6)Florida State Seminoles: +.94, (+2.5)Miami Hurricanes ML +115Kentucky Wildcats ML +135Iowa Hawkeyes ML +125San Diego State ML +175Kansas State Wildcats ML +340Connecticut Huskies ML +155Clemson Tigers ML +175Alright, will track this and see what we got. 
Game 1
------------
VIRGINIA (4 - 3) at GEORGIA TECH (6 - 1)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/25/2008 3:30 PM
Play Against - Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival.
(29-7 since 1992.) (80.6%)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 15.1
The average score in these games was: Team 38.1, Opponent 15.9 (Average point differential = +22.2)*
My Math Model predicts them winning by 22.5 points.*
The situation's record this season is:(1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is:(6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Virginia is 4-16 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game
VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play
VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog
VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog
Overall effiency:
Effiency is very important in Football, offensively and defensively. My effiency ratings have the two teams ranked as the following.
Rating: Georgia Tech: 7th
Rating: Virginia: 90th
Also, I have calculated my own Power Ratings for these Teams. Here are the Rankings.
Georgia Tech: 9th
Virginia: 55th
Coaching Trends:
Groh is 3-14 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival as the coach of VIRGINIA.
Groh is 5-18 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of VIRGINIA.
Trends From Thu. Aug 31, 2006 To Sat. Oct 25, 2008
Virginia Cavaliers are 0-3-0 ATS As Away (10 -> 13.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 8-3-0 ATS After 1 Unders (All Lines)
Personally I Really like this game. If line gets to 10 I will make it a PREMIUM Pick.
I am Taking Georgia Tech -12 (2 Units)* 
Will probably upgrade at some point this week. Want too see the line movement in this game*
GL, Dizz
Game 2
--------
MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 5) at MISSISSIPPI ST (2 - 5)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/25/2008 7:00 PM
Both teams sitting at 2-5 will be looking for a win this week. Both have played a similiar SOS YTD, and yet this line is +11? I feel it is inflated because the common bettor will see the name "Middle Tennessee St" and be like who the F is that? On paper, MTSU has produced at a better rate this season.
My personal Power Ratings:
MTSU: 71stMiss St. 76th
Overall Effiency has MTSU ranked ahead of Mississippi St. as well.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST
Mississippi State Bulldogs are 6-14-0 ATS After 1 ATS Loss (10 -> 13.5)
Mississippi State Bulldogs are 1-8-0 ATS After 2 Unders (All Lines)
Croom is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of MISSISSIPPI ST.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse
Line is Dropping...I'm getting it now
I'm Taking MTSU +10.5 (3 Units)
Game 3--------RICE (4 - 3) at TULANE (2 - 4)Week 9 Saturday, 10/25/2008 3:00 PMNeither team is exactly the type of team you want to wager on, but when there is value, there is value. Plain and simple. Based on my numbers, Rice has a large statistical advantage in this game. Offensively, defensively, and those numbers are calculated based upon the SOS as well. Rice is 4-3 ATS this year and Tulane is 4-2 ATS this year. Rice also has the advantage in the T.O. department. Honestly I don't understand how Tulane could be favored over anyone other than Idaho and North Texas. Play Against - A home team (TULANE) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. (29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%)The situation's record this season is: (2-0).Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).Since 1992 the situation's record is: (31-8).My Personal Power Rankings:Rice- 88thTulane- 115thMy Efficiency based on SOS Rankings:Rice- 84thTulane-120thRICE is 15-5 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.TULANE is 1-12 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points Key Trends based upon the Line:Tulane Green Wave are 3-10-0 ATS After 1 Away (PK -> 2.5)Tulane Green Wave are 4-11-0 ATS After 2 Losses (PK -> 2.5)Tulane Green Wave are 7-15-0 ATS As Home (PK -> 2.5)INJURIES:Rice Owls:
Date
|
Time
|
Player Name
|
Pos
|
Status
|
Injury
|
Notes
|
10/21
|
7:01am
|
Brian Raines
|
LB
|
Questionable
|
Arm
|
Raines broke his forearm on the first defensive series against Southern Miss last weekend and will be out for the rest of the season. Raines recorded 17 tackles in four games played this season but is near the top of the Owls' career tackles list. Rice loses not only one of their best players but also the leader of their defense.
|
10/14
|
7:06am
|
Andrew Sendejo
|
S
|
Out
|
Ankle
|
The results of Sendejo's MRI are not good for the Owls. Their starting SS has a high ankle sprain and will miss 2-4 weeks. Sendejo leads Rice in tackles with 50 and has also intercepted a pass and forced a fumble this season. Redshirt freshman Travis Bradshaw will make his first career start this weekend and replace Sendejo while he's out.
|
09/17
|
5:37am
|
Brandon King
|
CB
|
Out For Year
|
Foot
|
King injured his foot 9/13 at Vanderbilt and is lost for the season. The senior had started 21 consecutive games at CB and had 12 tackles and 2 interceptions this season. Needless to say the Owls will miss his presence.
|
Tulane Green Wave:
Next game: Rice at Tulane on 10/25 |
Date
|
Time
|
Player Name
|
Pos
|
Status
|
Injury
|
Notes
|
10/20
|
8:09am
|
Tony Bryant
|
DT
|
Doubtful
|
Ankle
|
Bryant is dealing with an ankle injury and is unlikely to play this weekend against Rice. Bryant has made three tackles this season while playing in all six of Tulane's games. He is usually a starter, but the Green Wave have a deep defensive line rotation and Bryant does not see a lot of snaps.
|
10/20
|
8:08am
|
Evan Lee
|
LB
|
Doubtful
|
Shoulder
|
Lee has a separated shoulder and is doubtful to play this weekend against Rice. The linebacker has racked up 22 tackles and two sacks while starting all six of Tulane's games this season.
|
10/20
|
8:06am
|
Travis Burks
|
LB
|
Doubtful
|
Hamstring
|
Burks is doubtful to play this weekend against Rice. He has been held out of practice during the Green Wave's bye week and does not appear on Tulane's preliminary depth chart. The reserve linebacker has 10 tackles and a sack this season.
|
10/20
|
8:05am
|
Jordan Stephany
|
FB
|
Questionable
|
Foot
|
Stephany did not play in Tulane's last game against UTEP after spraining his foot the week before against Army. He is questionable to return this weekend against Rice. Stephany is statistically the most heavily relied upon Green Wave fullback and has carried twice for no gain this season while catching five passes for 81 yards this season. True freshman Casey Stelly is listed as the starter on the depth chart.
|
10/20
|
8:04am
|
Cody Blackwelder
|
FB
|
Questionable
|
Pinched Nerve
|
Blackwelder is questionable to play this weekend against Rice after missing Tulane's last game against UTEP. Blackwelder has one carry for no gain and three receptions for 22 yards this season in a reserve role.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/07
|
9:02am
|
Jeremy Williams
|
WR
|
Out
|
Hand
|
Williams broke his left hand on 10/4 against Army and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Williams is leading Green Wave receiver having hauled in 27 catches for 437 yards and 5 TDs through the season's first five games. Senior Michael Batiste and redshirt sophomore Casey Robottorn are expected to fill in for Williams.
|
*The line is currently at Rice +2, but I see this becoming a Pk by kickoff. Getting on this game now.I am Taking Rice +2 (3 Units)
Week 2:
Weekly Record:
Premium: 1-0-0 (+5 Units)
Regular Plays: 4-1-0 (+8.8 Units)
Week 3:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units)
Regular Plays: 4-1-1 (+7.8 Units)
Week 4:
Weekly Record:
Premium Plays: 2-0-0 (+10 Units)
Regular Plays: 3-0-0 (+9 Units)
Week 5:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Plays: 5-3-0 (+5.1 Units)
Opinions: 8-2-0
Week 6:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Play: 7-3-0 (+12.3 Units)
Opinions: 3-0-0
Week 7:
Weekly Records:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units)
Regular Plays: 3-3-0 (-1.8 Units)
Week 8
Premium Play: 0-1-0 (-5.5 Units)
Regular Plays : 5-4-0 (-2 Units)
OVERALL YTD:
--------------
Premium Plays: 5-1-0 (83%) (+19.5 Units)
Regular Plays: 31-15-1 (67%) (+39.2 Units)
Opinions: 11-2-0 (85%)
Season YTD= 47-18-1 (72.3%) (+58.5 Units) 
GL, Dizz