Prop Play - There will be MORE Total TDs in Super Bowl than Jameer Nelson Assists (vs Boston) (2 units)
Per the stats below of Jameer's last 10 vs the Celts, he averages 3.9 assists per game. I like my chances of the Pack/Steelers scoring at least 4 TDS in this game to beat Jameer's assists total.
Magic's Last 10 Games vs Celts - Jameer's A=assists (in order of most recent game to latest game)
1) 5 Assists
Lets all have a profitable day in this big gambling day.
The play is 1st Quarter Under 9.5 for 2 Units
The Superbowl gives each team a two week layoff. This is how the Pitt performed after a two week of more layoff.
2010-11 Steelers 1st Quarter results for games after a 2 week of more layoff
Week 1 (first game) - Falcons 0 - arm Pitt 3 UNDER
Week 6 (after bye week) - Browns 3 - arm Pitt 0 UNDER
Division Round of Playoffs - Ravens 14 - arm Pitt 7 OVER
Summary - Pitt went under 1st quarter 2 out of 3 times this season.
Teasers have been kind to me this year.
My 7 point teaser is Packers +4.5 and Over 39 for 2 units.
I think this is the best way to play the teaser. I am think the Steelers can score at least 17 and I think the Pack will take care of the rest to cover the over and score at least 23.
7 point teaser
Ravens +10.5 and Pack +8 (2 units)
Ravens and Steelers played 2x and the games were decided by a field goal. Ravens haven't lost all season by more than 5 points.
Packers lost by a field goal to the Falcons in the ATL. Packers haven't lost all season by more than 4 points.
This looks like it has great value and nice hedge opportunities ahead. I see the Ravens being the 5 seed and Jets as the 6 seed as wildcards. I believe hedge apportunities will come about since the Ravens should not be underdogs in any of their playoff games, by more than 3 points.
1st round playoffs - Ravens will likely face the Colts. Although you can never count out Manning, I think the Ravens will control this game from the beginning.
Then, in the 2nd round, I see the Ravens facing the Patriots. Everyone is on Brady to take the Pats to the Superbowl. However, from the last two matchups with the Ravens and Pats, Ravens won the 1st won and in the 2nd matchup were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter and then blew it. I like the Ravens chances here.
Finally, in the last game, here is where I would hedge my bet. I think the Ravens play the Steelers (again) and the winner (Ravens or Steelers )will win by 3 points.
Thanks for considering this opportunity.