First, I just want to wish everyone here a great holiday. I'm getting really excited with the playoffs around the corner but we still have a couple of weeks left to make some money.
Last week my leans were Detroit +14, Buffalo +7 and Pittsburgh -2. I made the Steelers my play and that's a loss I can live with. I feel my overall premise for taking the Steelers was on the mark, Green Bay just played their hearts out as well. Both teams did enough to win, I just wish the Packers could have failed on that 2-point conversion attempt. Anyway, that's gambling.
Now onto this week. I looked hard at the Titans but I don't go by just lines and public money, I use match-ups as well. I just can't give Tennessee a big enough edge on the field to play them Christmas night. However, that line stinks to high heaven.
Here are my early leans for Week 16:
Seattle +14
One thing that I find interesting here is that while close to 70 percent of the money is coming in on the Packers, 95 percent of the ML money is on Seattle. Whenever that happens, it peaks my interest. Also, GB is coming off a gut-wrenching loss and a very physical game against Pittsburgh.
Denver +7
The Broncos took care of both Dallas and the Giants at home and now they take on the Eagles in Philly. San Fran had a ton of chances to not only make that game closer last week if they could have turned some turnovers into points. I will be watching this line closely during the week.
Cincy -13.5
I always look closely whenever the public is backing a dog that stinks like KC. The Bengals have a huge advantage in this game. KC has arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL and the Bengals aggressive defensive front should eat them alive. Although, I may lay off since this is now the week after Chris Henry's death. I think the week after is when a death really effects the players on the field.
Cleveland -3
Any time 70 percent of the money is coming in on the Raiders, I am going to take a strong look at the other side. Both teams are playing better and each has quarterback issues coming into this game. I probably won't play this one but it's on my radar nonetheless.
Houston +3
A lot of money coming in on Miami but the line hasn't budged yet. The Texans are front runners. As soon as they are pretty much out of the playoff hunt, they turn it on and finish strong. Miami suffered a tough loss last week and Matt Schaub should feast on the Dolphins secondary. This game could turn into a shootout, which favors Houston. Right now this would probably be my top play.
I am not locked into any of these yet, they are just the games I picked out of the group that I like initially. I will post my top play on Sunday. Good luck to everyone this week. Let's end the regular season in style.
About Me
My capping style is I take the few plays on the board that I feel have "fishy" lines set by the books and where the public is backing the obvious side. I then go through the match-ups to see which one of those plays has the best chance of cashing. I don't care how fishy a Rams/Colts line, I will not back the Rams in that spot because I believe if those two teams met 10 times, the Colts would blow them out 8-9 of those times. The odds just aren't with you. In other words, I use opening lines, public money and match-ups to try and take out as much of the guess work as possible and come up with what I believe is the strongest play on the board.