Record 4-3

Profit: $199

 

1. Cleveland (+100) vs Texas: Carmona vs Padilla. In my opinion Carmona will be the key to the Indians pitching staff this year. As I stated earlier, I think it will be difficult for C. Lee to have the type of year he had last year, so Carmona will have to fill that void. Carmona struggled with his control last year walking 70 while striking out only 58. However, he looked very sharp in spring training going 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA, in 27 innings he allowed 24 hits, 8 ERs, 2 HRs, SO 13, and walking 8. If he can carry that ST stuff into Texas today, he should take advantage a free swinging Ranger's offense. Padilla was average at best in Spring Training, which should allow the Indians to get some good looks and better at bats than they were able to muster against Millwood.

 

2. Cubs vs. Astros (+120): Lilly vs Moehler. In Baseball, more than any other sport, trends are a vital element in handicapping baseball. As evident by many of the starters who have already thrown in games this year and also played in the WBC, they have struggled in their opening regular season starts. Oswalt was not his best in his first outting losing to the Cubs 4-2, giving up 2 HRs in the game. Peavy also struggled losing to the Dodgers in his home opener. Therefore, I have to go against Lilly in this match-up. Lilly isn't going to surprise anyone with his stuff and he definetly isn't going to dominate any lineup. So Lilly is a fade early this year. Moehler was real sharp in Spring Training, he didn't get much run support, but his pitching was real solid with a 1.44 ERA, in 25 innings he gave up 19 hits, only 4 ERs, while striking out 14 and walking 4. Look for him to be sharp in this match-up and he should get some run support this time out.

 

Good Luck

Tonights Action:

     I know a lot of you want some guidance or insight into the UTEP/OSU game tonight, but my opinion still hasn't changed, OSU is not a good basketball team and yet they have found a way to go on a nice winning  streak and are one win away from bringing home the hardware. UTEP should come out much more focused tonight, but the line is huge so again I say stay awy from this game and save your money for another day.

 

The Final Four:

 

Early Lean: So far after just a couple days of research I am leaning towards UNC in their match-up with Nova. On the other hand, the MSU/UConn game seems like it should really be a pretty close affair so I haven't begun to lean one way.

 

Tonight NBA:

 

New Orleans (-3.5) vs L.A. Clippers: Very good spot here for the Hornets for several reasons. First, the Hornets have won and covered the last 8 meetings between these two teams and nothing should be different tonight. Secondly, if you have followed my basketball picks this year you know I love to play against teams on their first home game after an extended road trip. The Clippers are finally home after a 6 game road trip where they went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. Expect the Clippers to come out flat tonight and Paul and the Hornets to take advantage early. Finally, the Clippers simply don't play defense and Paul will definetly take advantage by penetrating the middle and finding easy open looks for others. The Clippers have given up an average of 102 ppg at home, while the Hornets give up 96 ppg on the road. Look for the Hornets to exploit the weak defense of the Clippers and get an easy road win.

 

Good Luck