The Cavs are done and at least Lebron shook hands this year.
Now, let's talk Eastern Conference Finals.. Who u got and why?
my thoughts, Magic in 6.
Damn gridiron wasn't very good to me last weekend going 2-3-1 w/ both wins coming on Vandy +4.5 & ML. Nevertheless, we are still ahead of the game hitting on a couple ML dogs.
18-14-1 on the year
South Carolina Pick or -1
Miss State +3(hook)
Explanations below... GL
1) South Carolina at Kentucky: Not really a lookahead b/c the Cocks have LSU on deck next week. The Cats gave the Tide all they wanted and more last week. I'm anticipating a dropoff from them this week as well as the fact that the Cats are 0-15 against Spurrier led squads, 0-8 against the Cocks. Take SC pick or -1.
2) Vandy at Miss St: Everyone has jumped onto the Vandy bandwagon. While it has been a good story, I think it will take a halt this week. Vandy has lost 5 straight in Starkville and w/ a trip to Georgia on deck and a big emotional win over Auburn last week, Miss St is the play. They've had 2 weeks to prep for this one also. Home dog barks. MIss St +3(hook)
3) Temple at Central Michigan: The Chippewas have a MAC showdown on deck w/ Western Mich as both are competing with Ball St for the MAC West top spot. Meanwhile, Temple has proven to be a solid investment throughout the course of the year going 5-1 ATS so far. As a road dog, the Owls are a respectable 23-18-1 since 2000. I think we can all agree theyre a better squad this year. Play Temple +8
Still on the fence:
Colorado at Kansas: Colorado has certainly shown that it was over-valued after beating WVU over 2 weeks ago. The Buffs getting nearly 2 TDs seems like a good number to jump on given that Kansas has a huge game at Oklahoma next week and could relax in the 4th if having a larger lead. A backdoor could be in order here.
Purdue at Ohio St: OSU backers have to be pretty upset as they're 1-4 ATS so far this season as they've been overpriced until last weekend at Wisconsin. Tressel isn't the type of coach to embarass opponents as he tends to lean on the run especially when he has a comfortable lead, hence the Minnesota cover 2 weeks ago. Add to that a pretty big game against a decent Mich St squad next weekend
GL this week. Thoughts are appreciated.
Here we go again. After several successful weeks, we finally hit a 2-3 day last weekend. All good though as we're still at 16-11 on the year. It's conference time baby and we have some nice opportunities that are presenting themselves. If we learned only one thing last weekend, its that some of our best value will come with the dogs playing the faves in the top 10. Bless those of you who had the nads to play Ole Miss & Oregon St on the ML. Of course the big boys are going to get upset. That way we can have BCS discussions and gripe about the current system, watch all the experts break it down, blah blah blah. Just like every year. It's all for our entertainment and for the colleges to keep getting fat checks from the bowls. But back to what matters. We should now begin to anticipate some emotional letdowns in our approach against the oddsmaker. Keep in mind, this is college football, we have to expect the unexpected:
1) Texas @ Colorado: Why oh why does this game stick out like a prostitute's thumb in the old days to me? Maybe its b/c everyone, including me, thought that the Buffs would beat FSU. Once again, on over-reaction to FSU's lost to Wake and the Buffs win over WVU. Now, we've seen the Horns demolishing their high school competitors in FAU, UTEP, Rice, & actually jr high Arkansas and we're supposed to lay 2TDs w/ them on the road in the same place where the Sooners were beat last year. Oh, and speaking on the Sooners, that's whose on deck for the Horns. Last season, being ranked #7 in the country, these same Horns lost by 20 to Kansas St as guess what, A 2 TD road fave. Has history taught us something? You better believe it. Play Colorado at +14 or more by gametime.
2) Florida at Arkansas: Florida has LSU on deck. So maybe Arkansas could, HA-HA, Hell no. Who cares about the deck, it doesn't matter in this case. NEVER put good money on the hogs. NO PLAY!!
3) UCF vs SMU: Question, should UCF be laying 2 TDs in this game even though SMU is still struggling? UCF is struggling as well. SMU had an impressive 2nd half against Tulane on the road to lose only by a TD. Well, UCF hasn't looked too good at all except in their revenge/rivalry game w/ USF where Groethe gave them bulletin board material. If not for South Carolina St, this team is still winless. I'm not saying SMU is great or even good for that matter, but certain teams shouldn't be favored by 2 TDs. This is in fact a close game in my eyes and I'll side w/ the points in this one. Miami is on deck for UCF and they love their intrastate games. Play SMU +14
4) Oklahoma at Baylor: Baylor is in a really, really, really good spot here. To cover, not win (although I said that about Oregon St, I need to grow some eh). Oklahoma wanted and got their 3-year, ice cold, not this time revenge against TCU and have the Red River shootout on deck. Mostly the same as the Texas explanation above w/ the difference being that Oklahoma is a buzzsaw right now, against GOOD competition from Cincy & TCU (unlike Texas) and even though a backdoor could be possible, don't put money down against this hot of a team. No PLAY!
5) Auburn at Vanderbilt: In only their 2nd road game of the season, we catch the Tigers in a pretty nice spot here. Auburn hasn't proven that they can actually play well on the road yet. I mentioned that they're a legit top ten team in last week's article. However, that may not be the case when away from Jordan-Hare. This offense continues to struggle putting points on the board. Meanwhile, Vandy has beaten a solid Gamecock squad at home and a tough Ole Miss team on the road. Let's nickname this game R-E-S-P-E-C-T and find out what it means to Vandy. This is the best shot they've had in years to finally take down the Tigers. They've had 2 weeks to prep and Auburn has had 3 consecutive knockdown dragout SEC games. Will the streak finally stop at 13? I can't say that but then again, I just grew some nads. Play Vandy +4.5 & a small play on Vandy ML.
Recommended play: Air Force -6 vs Navy: This game has been historically close w/ Navy winning 5 straight. This game fits all that you look for in a play; Home team coming off a bye, w/ HUGE revenge on its mind, lost their last game prior to by week, versus a team that is coming off a huge upset win heading into the 2nd of back to back road games. 2 units on Air Force -6.
Recommended 2nd play: Oregon St @ Utah: Remember how I said we were going to look for those teams that could have an emotional letdown. Well, here it is. The Beavers. My team from last week who pulled, no doubt, the upset of the year so far. Now, we expect them to come out and have a repeat performance against a consistently good Utah team. Keep in mind, this is college. Do you have any idea what these guys have been doing for the entire week and weekend? Let's just say, the school was abuzz, the natives were very appreciative of their efforts and um, probably, yeah, they were big pimpin all around Corvalis. Even the waterboy was getting action. Now, can that ego be deflated enough to rebuild an even higher level of emotion to take on Utah on the road? No. Believe this, Utah definitely won't be caught off guard by the Beavers even on a short rest week. Play on Utah -11 to get it done.
GL this weekend. Let's get it.
Well here we go again. A 3-4 minor setback last week but still a very nice job on the year as we've posted a 14-8 mark on the targeted teams. We're starting to get into conference play which will see our spreads begin to go a little tighter. This is a tough week to find lookaheads but a couple are out there. So no more delay, here's a look at week 5:
1) Colorado +6 vs FSU (in Jacksonville): FSU didn't look impressive in their first true test of the season against Wake. Now they go into a neutral site game against the Buffs. Keep in mind, they did beat Colorado 16-6 in Boulder last year so we have a small revenge play in here as well. I certainly believe that the Buffs can win this game outright w/ FSU having one of their hated rivals on deck next week at Miami. Play on Colorado +6.
2) Oregon St +25 vs USC: USC has looked every bit dominant in its first 2 games. However, it seems that this game against the Beavers is generally closer than the public thinks. In their last 2 trips to Corvalis, USC won 28-20 as an 18 point fave in '04 and lost 33-31 as a 10 point fave in '06. Both teams have had 2 weeks to prepare, but one has Oregon on deck and for the other, this is their game of the year. Play Oregon St +25 or higher by gametime Thursday.
3) Troy +17 at Ok State: Troy is a solid squad that just brought us a cover against Ohio St last week. This 17 seems to be a large # for a team like Ok St to be laying. They have looked impressive, however, they played the likes of Wash St, Houston, & Missouri St. Ok, we now know that Wazzou is the worst team in college football along w/ UVA & Houston was just upset by Colorado St (partially due to everything going on w/ Ike). Add to the mix that Ok St has Tx A&M on deck, a team that beat them 24-23 last year and you have a nice mix in place to play a strongly performing road dog. Play Troy +17.
4) UL Lafayette +21 at Kansas St: This is a generous # for ULL. KSU's success comes from the big play. If they are able to achieve this, then they could cover this number. However, they are very prone to giving up the big play as well as we saw in the Louisville game. ULL can put points on the board & has recently covered a 3 TD+ spread on the road at Illinois. With the beginning of Big 12 play and a visit from #10 Texas Tech on deck, I fully expect KSU to win this one in Manhattan, somewhere in the 14-17 point range. Play ULL +21
Game of the week: Auburn -6.5 vs Tennessee: It's very strange that I'd go to the SEC to look for a game of the week. I generally like to avoid this conference as the games are historically close battles. However, this year, what I've seen is that Auburn is a legit top 10 program even after losing that classic last week to LSU. Tennessee on the other hand is a program on the downturn. I don't see the Vols being able to get their offense going against that stingy Auburn D, especially if it's the one from the first half of the game last week. What I did like was Auburn's O moving the ball unlike in the previous week against Miss St. The Vols keep it close in the beginning, but Auburn wears them down and covers this one 27-17. Play Auburn -6.5
GL this week!!
Let's Get It
Here we go again fellas. So far we've had some moderate success in this thread, going 5-3 in week 2 w/ an outright chalk loser in Maryland and 3-1 (6-1 with add ons) in week 3 w/ outright losses by Zona at UNM & ASU vs UNLV.
As we enter week 4, we see many teams beginning conference play, so the focus should be getting a little better. Also, the lines are getting a little tighter as conf games generally stay closer and the oddsmakers are really beginning to understand these teams by this point. This makes the job of finding these "niche" style plays a little harder, but we're up for it, so let's get into it.
1) Penn St -28 vs Temple: Penn St has looked most impressive in their first 2 games (not counting the scrimmage against Coastal Carolina). I think we all can agree that this Temple team is better than most previous years. They are both perfect ATS so far. On deck for Penn St is the home Big 10 opener against #22 Illinois, a team that beat them last yr 27-20 mostly due to captializing on turnovers. Given the fact that Penn St has beaten Temple by a combined 78-0 in the last 2 years, don't think that Temple doesn't have it on their mind w/ all their starters returning.
2) Alabama -10 at Arkansas: The Tide are hitting the road to open SEC play at Arkansas. Although the Hogs are not high on anyone's totem pole this year, if we've learned anything from the SEC, it's that no matter how good or bad the matchup may look on paper, laying DDs on the road is a non profitable play. (i.e. Auburn -10 at Miss St LW, win 3-2). Keep in mind that the Hogs have now had over a week to prep for the Tide given that their game w/ Texas LW was cxld due to Hurricane Ike.
3) Maryland -21.5 vs Eastern Michigan: This is a classic letdown spot for the Terps after coming out LW and smacking Cal when everyone thought they would get flattened like a pancake. The public lost HUGE on Cal LW and so now everyone is thinking maybe Maryland is ok. Wait a minute. Don't fall into that trap. If they would've lost LW, this line would be less than 2 TDs. Not to mention that they have #23 and pre-season ACC fave Clemson on deck.
4) Ohio St -21 vs Troy: This is not a lookahead as we won 2 weeks ago w/ OSU looking past Ohio. This is a look behind situation. Ohio St left their NC dreams in SoCal LW and the question is, can they bounce back from the embarassment. Next week they begin Big 10 play and then can focus on the goal of getting to the Rose Bowl. Not to mention Troy is a very solid squad that could keep it closer than this 3 TD spread especially w/o Beanie Wells.
5) TCU -24 at SMU: TCU has looked great so far this year. One of the best teams in the MWC this year. SMU is struggling under 1st year coach Jones and new QB to implement the new offense. Being home will help them a great deal. This 24 looks like an easy cover for TCU, but they do have Oklahoma on deck and that could weigh on the minds of the Frogs especially if the game is in hand in the 2nd half.
6) USF -28 at FIU: Another look behind situation for USF similar to Ohio St. USF had a HUGE emotional comeback win over Kansas LW at home and faces a big dropoff heading to face one of the deadbeats of the Sun Belt. FIU has had 2 weeks to prep for this game so holding it to under 4 TDs is possible.
Game of the Week that I love: Play Tulsa -10.5 (buy the hook) vs New Mx: I'm all over this game and it doesn't qualify as a lookahead but I wanted to add that I love Tulsa in this spot catching UNM in: 1) their first road game of the year, 2) coming off a huge upset win against Zona, & 3) having the annual showdown w/ NM St on deck in Las Cruces. If that's not enough, Tulsa has had 2 weeks to prepare for UNM.
GL & as always, feedback is appreciated.
Let's get it!!!