Was going to reply this in Bibendii's thread, but some of this stuff is real good..

OK so we all know Murray's a good QB and put up nice #'s last year..

3000 yards, 60% completion %, 24 TDs, 8 INTs..

Well, OK, but how did he do against good pass competition (that Boise will be)

#'s by game...

• ULL- 90th vs Pass- Murray- 160 yards 3 TDs/1 INT
• South Carolina- 107th, 192, 0/0
• Arkansas- 16th-  253, 1/1
• Miss State- 89th, 274 1/0
• Colorado- 110th, 221, 3/1
• Tenn- 82nd, 266, 2/0
• Vandy- 78th, 287, 2/0
• Kentucky- 18th, 113, 0/0
• Florida- 13th, 313, 3/3
• Idaho State- ?, 228, 2/0
• Auburn- 105- 273, 3/0
• GT- 47th, 271, 3/0
• UCF- 45th, 198 0/2

So, on average, Murray faced the 67th toughest Pass D (not including Idaho State)..

And against the top 4 pass defenses faced: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Central Florida, Murray went:

• 63/114 or 55%,
• 877 passing yards or average of 219 yards/game,
• 4 TDs
• 6 INTs

I'd hardly call that quality...


Now, Boise has the 4th best pass D in the country LY, now yes, some of their stats are skewed, so against the top 2 pass offenses they faced:

#1 Pass Offense-    Hawaii- 21/35, 151 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
#37 Pass Offense- - Utah- 10/24, 93 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs


To summarize.. talent alone will not win the game for Murray.. he's going to have to do it with depth issues at OL, no real RB outside a true frosh and their leading returning WR that caught 27 passes in 2010..

Hard to think that will be enough..

Oh yea, and the UGA D gave up an average of 32ppg the last 5 games of the season...

Just looking ahead to week 4, FSU @ Clemson.. now Clemson should be a decent team, not great, but typically plays very well at home.. Noles haven't won in Death Valley since 98 I believe..  I'm tempted to call this a fade of FSU regardless of the OU outcome..

FSU wins- all their off-season work payed off, riding high, getting patted on ESPN and other outlets 'Noles Are Back!!'

or

FSU loses- all off-season prep for not, FSU had this game circled since end of LY, depressed head to play scrappy Clemson..


Still think either way Clemson is going to be dogged in this one, maybe as many as 7 if FSU beats OU and as low as 3 if FSU loses..

Any thoughts as in both scenarios I see Clemson winning this one..

Just about 6 weeks away.. I typically tread lightly in the first couple of weeks with me being more of a situational bettor, but below are some games below I'm keying in on for Week 1..

any others you guys like?


Baylor +7 or more vs. TCU... Bears at home, TCU loses lots of talent on both sides, new QB too.. I know Baylor's D is awful, but RGIII could have monster game.. would love a TD or more and it wouldn't surprise me to see Baylor win outright

Northwestern +6 or more @ BC- Will depend on how good Persa looks in August- if he's not 100%, this Northwestern team just isn't as good.. BC doesn't really blow out decent-good competition and anything more than a FG here might be worth a play..

Purdue -13.5 or less vs. Mid Tenn State- think Purdue will be very undervalued in the first few weeks.. lost so many starts to injury.. Marve is back under center, RB Bolden comes back too.. 9 starters return on D that should improve overall as a unit.. MTSU lost Dasher (good and bad), but only has 3 starters back on D, might be too much to handle

WMU +24 or more vs. UM- Highly doubt this line is more than 21, but just in case it is- UM changing schemes on both sides of the ball, will take some time to get into complete rhythm.  WMU returns 13 starters including solid QB and RB and entire DL. Just don't see UM putting up 40+ a game and WMU should be good for 17-21 pts in this one.

Boise PK or more vs. UGA- Not sure all the love for UGA- Murray should be solid, but they looked lost without AJ Green- true frosh Crowell starting at RB- now he could be a stud like Lattimore was, but it could also take some time for him to develop- UGA has depth issues at OL as well..Boise's Rush D real solid and returns all but 1 in the front 7 on D.. I've learned over time if you give Petersen more than 2 weeks to prepare, they aren't losing

OK, so mostly everyone I see on this board is on Bama.. some guys would lay up to 14 points.. no one thinks it's going to be close..

Exactly what has Bama proven this year that makes you think Arkansas isn't capable of beating them?

Is it the awesome Bama offense that threw up 62 on Duke? News flash- a piss poor WF team put up 54 on the Blue Devils the week before..

Is it the awesome Bama defense that shut-down Penn State?  PSU has a true frosh in his first road game- the same PSU team only scored 24 at home against Kent State..

Arkansas' win at UGA is more impressive than either of the 2 Bama wins listed above..

Now, I'm not saying the Hogs are going to win- but Bama is going to eventually lose.. it's a fact.. why not to a top 10 team with the SEC leader in Passing, its biggest rival on deck and being on the road with a green secondary?

The Bama bias in here is almost nauseating.. this line will stay in flux between 7 and 7.5.. those that think it will go to 10 are nuts..