Screw the long write up...
- TB is the better team...
- CAR has been playing so/so since their BYE
- Underdog is 8-3 ATS past 11 meetings
- Garcia will cause problems since he can scramble
- Vegas is down big this week and lost big on TNF & SNF (When that happens they will win MNF)
- 70% of the bets are on CAR
- The line has shifted towards CAR at the Mirage and Planet Hollywood
- Since 2003 the O/U splits each season (First game this year was UNDER)
Going with a big parlay here
4 units TB +3 and OVER 39
This TNF is awful...both teams suck right now and both teams need about TWO weeks and not 3 full days to prepare for this one...
FYI...I am a die hard RAIDERS fan so tail me at your own risk
To be honest with you...YES its hard to put money on the raiders but its even harder to put money on the chargers when they are laying chalk...
Raider O vs Charger D
1) Raiders have an above average rushing attack while the chargers have an average rushing Defense
2) Raiders have the worst passing offense in the NFL while the Chargers have the 2nd worst passing Defense
Charger O vs Raider D
1) Chargers have the 8th best passing Offense while the Raiders have the 8th best passing Defense
2) Chargers have the 7th worst rushing Offense while the Raiders have the 4th worst rushing Defense
Bottom Line
4 out of 6 Charger games in SD have been decided by 6 pts or less. They are 2-4 ATS in those 6 home games as well. The Chargers have been horrendous at home since their bye and I just see them going down hill. The Raiders have covered 4 out of their 6 road games while winning two of them outright. To be honest with you...as a Raider fan they seem to play smarter and more focused on the road. In this game I see them running the ball decent to set themselves up with managable 3rd downs where Russell has to complete a pass against the 2nd worst passing defense. The Raiders will have scoring opportunities in this game and I see them stalling in the Red Zone for only 3 pts most of the time. If they are able to get a few first downs for most of their possessions, they will give their D enough rest to keep Rivers outta the endzone multiple times. Tomilson has had a rough year, but has owned the Raiders throughout his career. San Diego will try to pound the ball more often than usual against the 4th worst rushing Defense.
I predict a close game in this low scoring affair.
Oakland Raiders +9.5
Under 42.5
Chargers win 20-17
GB is on an incredible streak ATS (5-0) with three of those games on the road. This week, they are in a bad spot after coming off a HUGE blowout win against their division rival and leader.
Both teams are 5-5 but this game is a do or die game for NO. They pretty much have no chance in their DIV and are 1.5 games back from the final wild card spot. Thier last 5 games of the season are against TB,CAR,ATL,CHI, and DET. This is a must win game for them and its at home on MNF,
On the other side, GB can still lose this game and be in a reasonable spot to still win their DIV. They hold the tie breaker with a 3-1 Div record splitting the season series with MIN. Their last 5 games are very favorable with JAC, DET, HOU, CHI, and CAR.
NO is a much better team at home and should be back to form with a 430 ypg avg at home while their D gives up 60 less ypg at home. Even without BUSH..Deuce should do just fine against a GB D that is 0.8 yards per run worse than the league avg on defense. I see NO winning this game in a shootout.
Looking at the game from a Money Angle...
This week is much like week 6 and week 10.
In week 6..all the lopsided money games went about 50/50..on SNF SD was favored by -6 and the public was jumping on them (The line moved from -5.5 to -6 and 57 percent of the bets were on SD) SD covered with a lopsided MNF game coming up after it. (the line moved -1 towards the gmen and 72% of bets were on them as well)
In week 10...all the lopsided games were won by the public 4-0. On SNF the GMEN were fav by -3 and 52 percent of the bets were on them as well. They covered and again..there was a lopsided MNF game following it. On MNF the CARDS were fav by -9.5 and the line moved to -10. 80% of the bets were on the CARDS.
This week, lopsided money games are 4-1 in favor of the public (NE, NYG, CHI, PIT). SNF...66% of all bets were on INDY with the line moving from +3 to +2.5...INDY covered and again we have a lopsided MNF game to follow (78% on GB with the line moving 0.5 towards GB)
There have only been 3 weeks where the public has been up BIG...with the SNF public pick covering..and a lopsided MNF game to follow. Week 6, Week 10, and this Week
Looking at this game from both angles...I'm rolling with the...
New Orleans Saints -2.5
BOL everyone!!!
Lets face it...The Pats are the Pats and the Jets are the Jets...The Pats have owned the Jets (NYJ 2-9-1 ATS the past 12 games against NE). Even with Favre and Cassel under the center, the Pats still have a huge psychological advantage over the Jets on the field and on the sidelines. If Favre was going to make a difference for the Jets..It would have happened in NY. I know it was his 2nd start of the year but lets be honest here too..It was Cassel's 1st start of his career. Losing at home in Week 2 with Favre under center was demoralizing for the Jets in their head to head match up with the Pats. Both QBs have come a long ways in learning the offense so both teams have improved dramatically since then.
In a short week, I think Belichick will have the Pats much more prepared for this game. Its going to take one hell of an effort for the Jets to pull this one out in Foxboro.
That being said and watching the spread go down to -3...
I'll take the New England Patriots -3
For the Over and Under, I like the over...
If the Jets are going to have any chance in this game they are going to have to make a statement at the start. I see Favre in a hurry up O to start the game which could be significant for the over. At the same time, if this game turns ugly in either direction; there will be no slowing down. These coaches have no respect and absolutely hate each other and they will try to make statements either way.
For the weather, it will be raining on and off with 10mph winds but I dont think that will automatically make this game go under. They will still be playing on turf so the field wont slow them down much. on their routes. If anything, they might even run less because of security with a slick ball.
I'll take the OVER 40.5 with a score of 24-20
BOL Everyone!! Feedback Welcomed..