Welcome back....
No bets this week - just making regular picks to gauge my temperature for this year. Anyone recommend a good book? I am looking to drop BETUS. thanks
North Texas over Ball state
just a hunch pick. North Texas is on the rise. Solid QB play.
Boise over Oregon
Will fade Oregon all year, as will most other people after last night.
OK State -4 over Georgia
Back and forth on this one. I know what OK state brings to the table,
while Georgia is an unknown commodity at the moment. Would probably be
a better ML bet on OK than the cover.
OU -21 over BYU
OU could cover this with a backup QB playing. OU DL will demolish anything BYU try's.
Baylor +2 over Wake
back and forth on this one as well. Not on the Baylor
hype wagon this year, but still see them as a better all around team
than Wake. Wake loses all its defensive play makers, while Baylor keeps
all of their D. Look at the under here.
Auburn -13 over Louisiana Tech
AU still has national championship talent on this team. Lets see if they put it to use.
LSU -17 over Washington
LSU tends to play down to their competitions level, and the fact that
they will have to fly cross country for a fluff game scares me. Any
how, should cover this number late in the 3rd at least.
Florida Atlantic +23 over Nebraska
Don't understand the NU hype this year. They did make
some advancements last year, but they finished dead last in the Big 12
in most defensive stats. I feel they will take a hard fall this year without lasts years QB to bail them out.
FAU has a solid QB and a solid old school coach. Wouldn't be surprised
is they pull off the shocker here.
Cincinnati +5 over Rutgers
Odd line. Will take Cincy over Rutgers any day.
Miami +7 over FSU
The U. Even teams here. Take the points.
Good luck to everyone.
Shmo
Texas’s D has been playing with a fire under their ass since the AZ state game at the end of last year. The addition of Mushcamp has kept this D playing at its highest level since Derek Johnson way blowing people up, so I don’t think being “pissed off” (if they even are-this season has already far exceeded expectations for this squad) makes any difference in the outcome of this game from the defensive standpoint. Make no mistake; this is the best front 7 in the entire country. That being said, they are not best suited to stop mobile QB’s (watch the Baylor game). If Pryor is able to elude the rush, he will certainly have some breakdowns in the secondary to take advantage of. That’s not to say that this secondary is not good, but I think it is important to remember that both safeties are freshmen and have blown coverage on several occasions this year. On the other side, Colt is going to be throwing against the best secondary he has seen since he played Ohio state 2 years ago. I don’t see Cosby/Shipley having the quick route releases that kill most defenses UT has faced. This quick/short passing game is going to be even more important for UT because they will have zero running room against the Ohio st. front 7. Remember, this is still one of the most experienced defenses in the country with next level talent all over. And then there’s Beanie. Beanie is going to be playing for something much more inspiring than pride or school spirit this game. He will be playing for the right to join a tax bracket you and I only dream about. I look for him to wear down this Texas D in the 3rd and 4th and make a statement to potential NFL suitors. This is not going to be a cakewalk for Texas by any means, but I still feel that Texas wins with their 3rd down execution late in the game. If this line grows to 12+ by game time, I will be likely put a stake on OHIO. If it stays around 10, I will stay away. I think that the UNDER 55 is the strongest play for this game. With Texas’s punter/coverage (yes, they will have to punt a few times) OHIO will be facing long fields all day. On the flip side, Texas will get into the red zone often, but I think OHIO’s D has the ability to hold them to more field goals than were accustomed to seeing with Texas. These two teams are the 3rd and 4th best defenses in the country in my opinion.(1Florida/2USC)
As always, thanks for the insight.
Here are my weekend football plays.
NY jets -7 vs. Denver
DENVER s personnel and lack of depth problems catch up with them hear. Denver always better as an underdog, and on the road for some reason this year. If at -8, seems like a good bet. Don’t like to bet against Cutler, but here an up and comer superstar, meets an NFL all timer who isn’t facing a very imposing defense. Don’t know much about NYJETs D, but weather will probably give the advantage to the defense. Hear, again, could be low scoring if weather terrible, but Hard to imagine Farve not being comfortable in the elements.
San fran @ buff -6
again, weather could be a determining factor. Long trip for yound san fran team. San fran probably has better athletes in slopp game. Like BUFF @ -5, but be good teaser bet at 6.
No +4 @ TB
Another teaser NO +10. TB don’t score enough to put away by 11.
Carolina +4 at GB
+145 ml like the Carolina pass rush against Rogers. Look for another frustrating day from Rogers, with some cheese=head doubt to follow. CAR good road team. Again, solid QB against a relative rookie.
Atl +4 at SD
how is ATL on the road this year? Ryan vs. hobbled SD front 7. Whathisname RB returns to sd a dirty bird. Probably gives SD a defensive advantage due to familiarity. Is the D healthy? Rivers against quick comers - not really good. LT vs. weak front 7 could be a big day. Just don’t know.
PITT +1 at NE
Good road team with established qb vs. inexperienced rookie. Dick Lebue. Name is scary in itself. How will NE score in face of rush? Who’s on MOSS???GOOD safeties must.
College hypothetical ML/s 100 to win 315 BOLD= favorites
Maryland +220 @ BC 10 to win 22
KU +475 @ MISSOU 48
BAYLOR VS TEch+775 78
AUB +450 vs. ALABAMA 45
RICE +135 vs. HOUSTON 14
NFL ML HYPO
Rams +315 vs. dolphins 32 rams are terrible
BRONCOS +275 @ NY 28
Jags +145 vs. Houston 15
Bears +155 @ Vikings 16
Reds kings +170 vs. NY 17
Golden ST @ Washington UNDER 210
CLEVELAND @ NY UNDER 213
Both WASH AND NY undergoing major changes with coaches and personnel. Look for sloppy games.
Thanksgiving day games scare me, but i see a few match ups I like.
12
Tenn –12 @ Detroit
ml 5-1 ou44.5
Could be the big time letdown for Tenn. What can Detroit do? Tenn just doesn't look put up a lot of points. Fisher, like Tressel just doesn't care about spreads. Even without the ball control offensive style, this team isn't made to put up explosive points. That's not to say that if the Lions turn the ball over any, this game could be would not be over quickly. If the Lions can put up any early points, a first
half bet at +7.5 would make sense. ML
FH a possibility. UNDER 44 a strong
possibility depending on TENN pass rush. I look for TENN to run that ball at ease against this Detroit D, but just haven't seen Detroit enough this year to know what they can do. No bet yet.
4
Seattle +14 @ Dallas
ml 6-1 ou46.5
Again, what can Seattle do?
Looks like Vegas is begging us to bet Seattle, but 14 seems too
high. Is Seattle any worse than San
Fran who came in at +10? With
Hassledick at QB for Seattle, I don’t think so. Might look for another first half bet at +8. ML FH a strong possibility. Maybe not.
8
Arizona +2 @ Philly ml 1.15 ou 46.5
Tough one. AZ O
seems like a Philly O just with big time receivers. Philly holds a definite advantage with Westbrook in the Backfield
but he has looked a step slow, and not as mentally into the game as he has in
years past. I feel that Westbrook’s
spectacular career as an eagle is going down the same path as his coach and
qb. For a man who has carried the Philly
O for so many years, I hope I’m wrong here.
Either way, Philly’s blitz D worries me against Warner here. I look for some old school Warner fuck ups
here.no bet yet. Lean on AZ.
Need to look into team injuries and weather befre makeing a decision.
Thanks