Hoping to pick it up where I left off before the break. Will be playing a light card on Tuesday as I think some teams will show serious rust after the break. History shows dogs have more value the day after the long layoff...then again, dogs have done dick this season. Will tread lightly and see who shows up before I dive back in fully.
Carolina/NYI under 5.5. Both teams have been superb on PK of late. 16/16 and 17/17. Cam Ward has been stellar, 2 goals or less in 9 straight. Nabokov 11 goals allowed in his last 7 games. Last meeting was a 2-1 OT affair despite 73 SOG.
Preds over Wild. Cant resist the Preds at this number. Hottest team before the break, 9-1 last 10. Lone loss at MSG with Lindback in. Rinne 2 goals or less allowed in all 9 wins. Wild second to only Kings in fewest goals scored per game at 2.24. Harding is confirmed for the Wild. Had a good outing against the Stars but 17 GAA in last 5 games doesnt bode well for a team that has a hard time scoring goals. I think the under also has some value here...but will definetely be on Nash once I see Rinne confirmed.
I'm going to dig deeper but so far those are my plays. Also looking at:
Bolts and the over. Garon is confirmed and has been good last 3. All wins and GAA of 2. Cap PK has been terrible of late. Bolts PP average but they maybe getting back Hedman, Pyatt, Shannon and Malone for this one. Caps still without OV and Backstrom. Bolts 2-1 on 3 or more days rest, while Caps 1-3. Over is combined 5-1 in those games. These teams havent stayed under 7 in last 4 meetings. Will likely have a play here either on the Bolts or the over.
SJ/CBJ under. Neither of these teams is scoring lately. Hard time keeping the puck out of their own net at times...but I think under 5.5 looks good here. I'd like to say the CBJ have some value with this huge line but:
Blue Jackets are 1-6 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Sharks are 11-1 in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Blue Jackets are 3-18 in the last 21 meetings in San Jose.
If anything I think SJ in regulation or PL would be my play if forced to call a side.
Devils. I wont fade Lundqvist, just gut feeling NJ may take this one. I usually get a strong read on Ranger games just prior to gametime and they are almost always spot on. I want to play the over here, but again, Henrik in net has been gold on the unders, even at 5. May make a late play. Will almost certainly be on the Blueshirts in Buffalo on Wednesday, unless Sabres look completely transformed in Montreal. Will reduce juice with reg or PL. Biron 3-1 against his former team since 2009. GAA well under 2. Rangers dominant on second of B2B, at 5-1-1. Sabres winless in last 6 in this spot.
Pens/Leafs over. Leafs have been under magnets of late or this would be a gimme. Neither PP has had it going of late either.
Over is 17-4-1 in the last 22 meetings.
Have not played a total under 5 in their last 10 matchups.
I think the Leafs have some value at that number but have struggled on the road a bit, and Pens hot hot hot. Winners of 7 straight.
Best of luck on all of your plays