Going with the Over again.
Here's the breakdown by BetExposure:
Dirk Nowitzki ignored the pain from his torn tendon in his left middle finger and used that hand to tie the series 1-1 in one of the most incredible come-from-behind wins in NBA finals history.
It was the second time in 4 playoff games that Dallas erased a 15 point deficit in the 4th quarter. Erasing that big a margin in the 4th has only happened 4 times in the last 10 NBA post-seasons, the other two were the Blazers against the Mavs in the 1st round this year and the Celtics vs. the Nets in 2002.
It was the 1st time this happened in the finals since the Bulls came back to beat the Blazers in 1992.
So what happened?
For starters, the first three quarters Miami was 17-for-26 from inside 15 feet, with Dwyane Wade going 10-for-11.
In the 4th they stopped going inside though, attempting only 4 of their 18 shots from inside 15 feet, with the only attempt in the final 6:19 a missed layup by LeBron James.
Another factor was that Dallas reversed the rebounding differential from -10 in game 1 to +11 in game 2.
Finally, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James denied that they celebrated in front of the Dallas Mavericks’ bench after the Heat went up 88-73 with 7:14 left in the game, but replays sure made it seem that way.
It left a lot of lingering questions, including why Chris Bosh was guarding Dirk instead of Udonis Haslem, who had done a good job throughout the game, and why they let Nowitzki execute the play while Miami had a foul to give.
But the most important question of course is what can we expect now?
After that other win where they erased a 15 point deficit on the road, the Mavs went home and took a 13-7 lead, then allowed the Thunder to come back and take the lead throughout most of the game up to the last minute, where they won the game but failed to cover. Of course that spread was -6.5 and a bit harder to cover than the -2.5 currently.
The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
But the Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win, 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Miami is only 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings overall, but 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas, with the road team going 20-8-1 in the last 29.
A bit more consistency can be found in the total.
The Over is 12-3 in the Mavs' last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 6-1-1 in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a S.U. win.
The Over is also 5-1 in the last 6 games following a S.U. loss by Miami, 15-7 in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Either way, expect both teams to leave it all on the floor.
Since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 format in 1985, with the series tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner has won the championship all 11 times.
I can't imagine both teams shooting this horrible two games in a row, have to go with the Over again.
Here's the breakdown by BetExposure:
Miami had a 46-36 rebounding edge, which made all the difference with all the clunkers both teams threw up there. The combined 33 points in the first quarter were the fewest in any NBA Finals game 1 ever.
Dallas shot just 37.3% for the game, had only had one 2-point basket in the game's first 15:49 and Dirk Nowitzki needed 7-18 shooting to get his 27 points.
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combined for 65 points. When the Big Three score at least 75 points, Miami is 31-3 including a perfect 4-0 this postseason.
If the Mavs are going to turn this around, they'll need more production from their bench, who contributed only 17 points (32.4 below their average in the playoffs) on 4-22 shooting. The Heat bench outscored their opponents' counterparts for just the 8th time in 98 games this season.
Miami is now 6-0 in the playoffs when trailing at the half, and outscored their opponent in the 4th quarter for the 5th straight game.
They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games, while Dallas is still 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20, as well as 4-0 ATS after a SU loss.
The Over is 9-4 in the last 13 games with the Mavericks as a road underdog and 12-6-1 in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.
The Over is also 7-1 in Miami’s last 8 playoff games as a favorite, and 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
Dirk Nowitzki wound up tearing a tendon in his left middle finger when Chris Bosh came barreling down the lane and Nowitzki thought he got a clean swipe at the ball. He did not leave the game. X-rays were negative and Nowitzki plans to wear a splint on the finger on his non-shooting hand for the duration of this series.
“I guess it will be all right,’’ Dirk said. “I have to wear a splint probably for the rest of the playoffs – for a couple of weeks – but I will be all right.
“It’s on my left hand, so I’ll be all right for Thursday.’’
Kidd said it; go out and run to contain the effectiveness of the Big Three. Over is the play here.
This is the relevant part of the breakdown by BetExposure:
For the second time in 6 years Miami and Dallas meet in the finals. The first time the Heat won after being down 2-0 and the Mavs have not forgotten; they are 10-0 against Miami since then. Both teams got here the same way, they were both up 3-1 in the series, trailing by a significant margin in the 4th, and won it in the last minute.
Huge swings throughout the games will be very likely throughout this series also, as both teams can lock down an opponent pretty with stiffling defense, and both teams haver the guns to overcome any defense:
The Mavs and Heat have each held opponents under 90 points in the playoffs 7 times so far
For Miami LeBron James is averaging 26.0 points per game, Dwyane Wade 23.7 and Chris Bosh 18.6 in the playoffs.
For Dallas Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 28.4 ppg, Jason Terry 17.3 and Shawn Marion 11.2 in the playoffs, with Tyson Chandler adding 9.3 rebounds and Jason Kidd 7.7 assists per game.
Of the 92.9 points the Heat has averaged in the playoffs so far, James, Wade and Bosh have combined for an average 68.3 of those.
While Miami's big three are definitely younger and more athletic than anything Dallas can come up with, Nowitzki's supporting cast of Terry, Marion, Kidd, Chandler, J.J. Barea, DeShawn Stevenson and Peja Stojakovic is clearly deeper though.
Dallas enters the finals on a 16-2-1 ATS tear in their last 19 games, Miami is 13-5 ATS in their last 18.
The Mavericks are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami, the road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 games between the two.
All four meetings the last 2 seasons have gone Over, as have 8 of the last 11 meetings between the two in Miami.
The Over is 9-3 in the last 12 games with the Mavericks as a road underdog and 12-5-1 in their last 18 games following a ATS loss.
The Over is also 7-0 in Miami's last 7 playoff games as a favorite, and 6-0 in their last 6 home games.
Jason Kidd said one of the keys is to make that sure James and Wade don't freelance on defense. That's when they're at their best, creating havoc, making steals and flying to the rim with some amazing dunks.
"You've got to keep the tempo," Kidd said.
"We want to get out and run. I know they're going to be on the floor a lot, but we've got to make them play both ends. We've got to make them play defense. You've got to make them play on the other end and hopefully at some point -- they're younger -- that they'll get tired."
You can read the rest of the article (including a status update on Wade) here.
The Bulls will be a lot like OKC last night, up most of the game until fatigue and superior athletic and scoring advantage makes Miami win it in the end. Heat ML
Here's the breakdown by BetExposure:
While the teams seemed pretty well matched in the beginning, here are a few reasons why Miami is up 3-1 in the series:
The Heat are out-shooting Chicago 46.8 percent to 39.9 in the series, with the Bulls going 24 of 77 from downtown. Over the last 3 games Derrick Rose is shooting just over 33% from the field and 13% from the arc.
LeBron James held Derrick Rose to 0-5 shooting and 0 points while defending him in the closing minutes of Game 4. Then again, the poor shooting could have something to do with the fatigue of Rose averaging over 42 minutes a game in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Chicago has been out-scored by Miami in the 4th quarter of each of the last 3 games while shooting 25.0%, 38.9% and 30.4% in those.
Bulls reserve C Omer Asik logged two minutes on Tuesday, limping noticeably after tweaking an ankle in Game 3.
The Heat are now 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, but only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.
The Bulls are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a S.U. loss.
The Under is 37-17 in Chicago's last 54 games playing on 1 days rest.
The Under is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago between the two, 16-5 in their last 21 after the Heat score 100 points or more in their previous game, but the Over is 15-6 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 9-4 in Heat last 13 games as a road underdog.
I want this series to continue after tonight, but I don't see that happening. Not sure about the points though. The total is a different matter however, Over 198
Here's the relevant part of the breakdown by BetExposure, you can find the rest here:
Oklahoma City has shown great resilience in bouncing back from losses, after one of those they are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS this post season and 44-22-1 ATS in their last 67 games.
But this one is probably harder to get over than any of the previous ones for the young Thunder.
Things derailed when James Harden fouled out. Oklahoma City was up by 15 with 5 minutes to go at that point but the Mavs tied the game with a 17-2 run to close out regulation.
The Thunder ran 25 pick-and-roll plays before Harden fouled out, just two afterward, and now they are down 1-3 in the series.
It was the first playoff game in 15 seasons where a team won that trailed by 15 with 5 minutes to go.
The game also featured the largest rebounding advantage in 15 years by a losing team in a playoff game: 55-33
The Over is 12-2 in the last 14 home games for the Mavericks against a team with a winning road record, 16-7 in Mavericks last 23 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 16-5 in their last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Over is 34-16 in Thunder last 50 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 (10-4 in their last 14 playoff games in that situation), and 6-0 following their last 6 losses.
The Over is also 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Dallas between the two.