Yesterday: 0-4, -4.15 units
Season: 39-32, +8.30 units
Indians/Royals under 8.5 -115 (Intertops) -- I believe my first under play of the the year. You have two teams that combine to average barely 8 runs a game, and KC scores less on the road than they do at home, while Cleveland scores less at home than on the road. You have two pretty solid starting pitchers. And you have two solid bullpens.
White Sox +175 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- This line is just too high. Danks has pitched very well this year, and the Tigers aren't hitting lefties very hard so far. White Sox are outscoring the Tiger offense this year. Both bullpens are pretty bad, but Danks has averaged over 6 innings a start while Sanchez has averaged under 5 innings a start, so you would expect to see more of the bad Tiger bullpen in this game. I'm not saying the White Sox should be favored, but given the performance so far this year it's hard to believe they don't have more than a 37% chance to win this game, and that's all it takes to make this bet profitable longterm.
Yesterday: 1-3, -2.11 units
Season: 39-28, +12.51 units
Angels / Tigers over 9 -110 (Intertops) -- Angels averaging over 5 runs per game so far this year (and even higher on the road). Tigers averaging over 4 runs per game this year (and even higher at home). Neither of these starters is ace caliber or even #2 caliber. And both teams have bullpen ERAs over 5 so far this year.
Yesterday: 3-2, +1.24 units
Season: 38-25 +14.62 units
Blue Jays +109 vs Indians (Intertops) -- Indians only hitting .219 vs lefties this year and they are facing a pretty good one today. Jays could get a spark by the return from injury of Jose Reyes to be leadoff man.
Yesterday: 1-3, -2.45 units
Season: 35-23, +13.38 units
So much for the winning streak. I had not had a losing day since Sunday, April 7. 10 winning days, and one day when my only bet was refunded due to a suspended game (though the team I bet on DID win the game when it was completed the next day).
OK, let's see if I can start another streak...
Angels +106 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Weaver is an ace caliber pitcher. The early season ERA isn't what it should be but I try not to get worked up over a small sample size of data. 17 strikeouts in 18 innings tells me his stuff still seems to be there. The Angel offense is outperforming the Tiger offense so far this year, and Detroit has Smyly making his first start of the season. Can't pass up Weaver and the hard hitting angels at plus money.
Yankees -102 vs Rays (Intertops) -- Ray offense is putrid right now, one of the weakest in the majors, and they are facing a solid pitcher in Kuroda tonight. Meanwhile, Bedard wasn't good enough to make the Ray rotation out of spring training. Now I realize the Yankee lineup has soome holes too, but I have to think they stand a pretty good chance of winning with this matchup.
Orioles +120 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Chris TIllman is one of the top 6 or 7 pitchers in baseball dating back to July 2012, a span of over 50 starts. Yet he still does not get the line respect he deserves.
Marlins -121 vs Mariners (Intertops) -- Marlins have played very well at home this year (averaging well over 5 runs per game), and Eovaldi has pitched pretty well since the middle of last year. Mariners are starting Chris Young, who has barely pitched in the majors in the past three seasons due to injuries.
Dodgers -1.5 runs +120 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) -- Better offense, way better starting pitcher, way better bullpen, home field edge.
Yesterday: 5-1, +4.82 units
Season: 34-20, +14.83 units
Braves -137 vs Phillies (Intertops) -- I know early season returns show Phillies are hitting lefties well, but I don't believe it will last. Too many key middle of the order hitters bat left. Wood is a quality lefty. Burnett, meanwhile, is trying to pitch through a hernia that made him leave the last start early. And if this game is close late, the Brave bullpen ERA is a full THREE runs lower than Philadephia's.
Tigers -153 vs Indians (Intertops) -- Verlander appears to be back in career form after an off year last year.
Mariners +111 vs Rangers (Intertops) -- Just fading Scheppers.