Posted Friday, August 05, 2011 03:00 AMI've been asked why I don't cap "real" matches and by "real" matches they mean matches that have low odd favs or plus-money dogs.
It's because I don't like the winning percentages of these matches. They are all flips of a coin, regardless of the ending scores of the match.
So here we are sounding like fricken Baseball. The same monotonous crud time & time again. There are cappers who take their 0.5 - 5 units and stick it up the butts of coin-flip havens in Tennis or Baseball.
In a completely EVEN ODD game, where the good old sportsbook makes their 10% juice from the LOSER, we have two sides of -110 and -110. And when these systematic coin-flip cappers do this, they try to beat 52.5% to make a profit.
Good/lucky baseball cappers can go double-digits, MAYBE triple-digits for awhile. Batters of .500 can be up a few units this week and down a few units this week.
I came to the Tennis Betting World to GET AWAY FROM THAT CRAP. I don't care how "good" a baseball team is, you can't ride a good team forever, they get streaky, they get on lucky runs and unlucky slumps. That's baseball.
Look at their season records and tell me that baseball isn't a fricken Coin-Flip? They compare good teams to bad teams by which teams are ABOVE .500 and which teams are BELOW .500.
And when a team IS over .500, then their odds get TAXED to keep YOU as close to going NEGATIVE as the book can get you.
With that said,....here we are in Tennis and people want to Play Baseball here in the Tennis Betting World. Awesome.
Which Dogs have "VALUE", what slight Favs will kick the crap out of the slight Dog.
I don't bet Baseball anymore. And I don't bet Baseball-like Tennis.
Ok, I tried to get some numbers from people about what price they got on the futures prop bet of Miami Heat to win the Championship.
I looked back on a Covers.com article and it had the Heat pegged at +200. OK, let's go with that.
Who in their right mind would take the Miami Heat at +200 to win it all before the playoffs even started?!?!
Morans, that's who. Why? Because that is a HORRIBLE BET to make.
1. To take +200 BEFORE the playoffs means that you have crazy variables that COULD happen where the Heat wouldn't even make it INTO the playoffs in the first place. Yes, it may be VERY slim that they didn't AT LEAST make it to the playoffs, but none the less it definitely could have happened.
2. Sportsbooks make A SHIT TON OF MONEY ON futures bets with more than 3 options or picks. If there are, let's say 30 options on a futures bet, only won gets paid, and the rest goes to the sportsbooks, bookies, and "Vegas".
3. You can make MORE money in the SAME WAYS. Let's say you would have put down $100 to for the Heat to win the Championship at +200. So Risk $100 and Win $200.
INSTEAD, don't be a fool and put your money on the futures bet for them to win it all. Instead wait until they ACTUALLY make it to the playoffs and THEN do EXACTLY WHAT YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTING ON IN THE FIRST PLACE: They win it all.
By that I mean Put your $100 on the Heat Series prices to win all throughout the playoffs. If they were to win the Championship, they would have to win all 4 series to do so.
Let's see....I think the Series price for the Miami Heat to beat the 76ers was -1000. AND -200 on Boston, -190 on Chicago, and -170 on Dallas.
GET YOUR CALCULATOR OUT AND SEE IF YOU CAN EVEN WORK A CALCULATOR.
IF you are smart enough to even pick up a calculator, you should have comeup with $100 making you $299.98.
A BIT better than Risk $100 to Win $200 huh?
PLUS by waiting until the playoffs started, you can see the playoff bracket, whay teams are in it, who they may or may not play, there were no injuries since the beginning of the season and sooo much more.
And $299.98 is what you would have won on the Heat coming in at a #2 seed and a heavy fan favorite to win (bloated lines).
IMAGINE IF THE HEAT HADN'T DONE AS WELL TO COME IN AT A #2 SEED. If they came in at a lower seed, the series prices wouldn't have even been as high as they were being a #2 seed, hence MAKING YOU EVEN MORE MONEY THAN +200.
IMAGINE THIS: Miami's bus crashes before Game 1 of the finals. Lebron gets hurt.
Do you still want your money on the Miami Heat to win the finals?
Maybe, maybe not. You will definitely get better odds than the current series price off -170.
OR you could take your $151.84 that you made from the 76ers, Celts, and Bulls series AND RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's something you CAN'T do with a futures bet. You can't RUN!!! You are LOCKED IN you DumbA**!!!!!!!!
TexasD
Now the weird thing is that I usually don't bet futures. Matter of fact I could probably talk you out of placing those bets all together,...with the exception of plays that are rather "valuable" against any other way of betting on that team.
For instance: I didn't have an account on Covers.com when I saw the Green Bay Packers going to the Superbowl, but I've declared to many of my friends in the "real" world that, before the playoffs started I would take any bets from them that the Green Bay Packers would GO to the SuperBowl. (In other words, NFC Champions) Well, thankfully for them, they didn't bite on that, cuz I would've banked big.
My sportsbook was +400 on the Green Bay Packers being NFC Champions. I saw that BS and just laughed at it. I did some estimating in my head of wether the Pack would be Underdogs throughout the NFC playoffs or not. Sure, I could have put $25 down on the Pack being NFC Champs and banked $100,......
But that would've been stupid.
I could tell already when their first game against the Philadelphia Eagles was a 3-pt underdog. It was like a +130 moneyline or something around there. Now if I were to just take that $25 and put in on the moneyline (moneyline cuz, saying the Pack were to be NFC Champions, is playing the Pack to win Straight Up over the course of 3 games) I would have won $32.5.
Next game was vs the Atlanta Falcons for +130 moneyline. Since I would have put $25 down on the futures bet, you add the $25 and your winnings of $32.5 and put that on the moneyline of the next game that they would have had to win straight up to be NFC Conference Champions. So risk $57.5 to win $74.75.
Alrighty, one more game to go; NFC Championship game against the Chicago Bears. The Pack ended up being the favorite here and they were -150 on the moneyline. OK, not a problem. So take your original $25 and the winnings from “pressing your bet up” and put it on the final moneyline to win it straight up. Risk $132.25 to win $88.17.
Bamm...you just won $195.42 by risking $25. That’s JUST under a +800 payou, double what the book was offering. Plus, you had the option of winning some money and deciding if they were even going to win another game on the way to the SuperBowl.
By betting on a future to be an NFC champion, there were two games along the way that could have been different teams. By betting “as-you-go”, you have options to get out while you are ahead. The Packers could have met the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship game and maybe you wouldn’t think that they would win that one, so take your winnings from the two previous games and run.
ONCE YOU PUT A FUTURE BET IN, YOU CAN’T BACK OUT, YOU ARE IN IT UNTIL YOU WIN OR LOSE.
And betting “as-you-go”, if you lose and the Packers were out, then you would have lost that $25 on the futures bet anyways.
The crazy thing about this: SPORTSBOOKS MAKE TONS OF MONEY OFF THESE FUTURES BETS.
For the ONE future that wins and gets paid out, there are multiple other bets that are losing their money. Futures are a totally different money-making machine for books.
Books make money off the juice that they charge on bets. Most ATS lines are -110 payout. Depending on the amount of money that is put into the Money Lines, there is ALOT more juice on them. If the favorite is pegged at -600 and the underdog is at +400, they are making a lot more than a “dime” on the bettors.
When there are 20 options for a future bet, there are 19 other bets that people are losing money, while that 1 bet gets paid.
Your sportsbook already makes good money off of you, don’t give them more.
I've been much a fan of gambling on sporting events, but this whole posting on forums and blogging things is new to me.
I originally started posting because I saw a line that was unbelievable, just rock solid, a good team vs a mediocre team,...a low line for the good team.
Then I saw a second line that looked pretty good also, so I posted.
Now I chased a flu bug article that got me to investigate deep into that game that I ended up losing.
Now I DO understand that gambling is such that you DO win and you DO lose. You can have all the greatest of research done, and all the greatest opinions of who will win, you can have all the greatest sportscasters tell you all the stuff that on why they will win, but teams will shoot good, and teams will shoot bad.
That IS what a bettor bets on. What actually happens in the future.
We ALL can look back on what has happened and say this or that,... why they won or why they lost,... but it's the PAST that makes us look like fools or geniuses.
I will let you know,...as a life lesson,...it's not whether you were right or wrong,...but it's the LESSON that you learned from a mistake and not the EGO that you got from being right.
If a line that you wanted to bet on is getting better, should you be concerned? If you've done your homework and it looks like a better deal than a 50/50 coin flip, why would a better line be of concern?
This is what I haven't understood about bettors.
I WISH EVERY LINE THAT I WANTED GOT BETTER AS THE DAY WENT ON.
Ask WHY the line is dropping. Cud it be that the "consensus" of bettors are jumping on Oklahoma? Did it leak out that a Texas player is going to point-shave tonight? Does it mean that the "sharp" bettors are putting BIG money on that side?
My favorite: Does it mean that NOT ONLY Vegas knows something and they want to put out a fishy line out to "lure" bettors into their trap? Not only that, but all those internet sportsbooks that are BUSINESSES making money by charging a 10% juice and keeping the sides even so that they ALWAYS make money, are following what the almighty VEGAS wants.
One fact: The amount of money on each side of the bet is what moves lines.
Second fact: Vegas does NOT gamble with their money, it's the bettors. They make money on juice.
The only time "Vegas" sportsbooks lose is if they can't move the line fast enough to keep the money on both sides within their "wiggle-room" window of making money off the juice, AND the team that doesn't have enough money on it's side to cover the wins of the big-money side.
(Man, I don't even know if that'll make any sense to people when they read it)
WHAT YOU SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT:
Has a significant player on one of the teams been RECENTLY deemed to NOT BE PLAYING tonight? If a big-contributing player is suddenly not going to play, the original line did not have that factored in, hence a line movement THAT YOU SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT.
Yes, there are a few actual other reasons that could affect the likelihood of a team winning or not.
WHEN PEOPLE SEE A LINE GOING THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, THEY FEEL LIKE THEY ARE NOT IN THE "MAJORITY". They start to doubt their homework, the stats, their decision to bet on a team.
But YES, do look into an injury or suspension.
But NO, "Vegas" does not "set traps" with all the other sportsbooks throwing their money in that direction too. They seldom lose money. The more money that bettors throw their way (Superbowl), the more even they want the money.
My Covers.com forum Avatar may have blue skin, but I don't mind being in the minority! PLEASE SEND FREE POINTS HERE!
TexasD