Record stands at 12-4 this includes sf m/line play as well as sf - 1.5 in the last game played against stlouis. We have had a good run - let's see if we can keep it going. Let's look at some numbers:
105 SF Bumgarner 11
KC Sheilds 30
Sf opens up as a 105 favorite currently around 107 - 110 (depending on who your book is) - see donbest.com. Bum. has a numerical rating of 11 and shields 30 (lower the better) - the numbers come from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give each starting pitcher a numerical rating.
Based on my numerical ratings - on paper Bum is clearly a better pitcher. However, as we have witnessed this season as well has during the playoffs you can't always bet according to who the better starting pitcher is on paper and expect to win every time. Unfortunately it doesn't work that way. This is why you have to look at the opening line of 105 and try to find games where the starting pitchers had numerical ratings of 11 and 30 respectively.
Based on history - when you have an opening line of 105 and the numerical ratings above (or very close) - the home team often takes home the victory. I wouldn't go crazy but I think KC wins game 1. Good luck all enjoy the series.
Record stands at 8-3, unfortunately the O's didn't do it for us on Friday. No plays yesterday. Let's look at some numbers:
SF Peavy 48
118 Stl Lynn 22
Stl. opens up as a 118 fav - (donbest.com), currently around 130.
Whenever you have lines that open up that do not end in 0 or 5 - meaning 120, 145, etc.....you gotta b/careful - imo . This was the case yesterday with both O's game (-122) and the Stl. game (-134).
This game is another b/c game due to the opening line being 118 for stlouis. However, I do keep track of games with these odd opening lines, the data indicates with these lines along with the numerical ratings above that more often than not the away team picks up the win. Once again - b/c but i'm going with the Giants.
Good luck all.
Let's look at some numbers on the Balt/TB game:
3 Balt 12 13 8 27 11 16
TB 24 29 18 30 28 13
Balt. opens up as a 3 pt fav. Currently around 3.5. Balt is better in off. rushing rank, off. passing rank, def. rush, def. pass, sagarin rank. TB is only better in sagarin sched. rank at 13.
You would think Baltimore dominating like this - they should crush, unfortunately it's not that easy. History has shown - when you have this situation and the opening line is 3 points - the home team not only covers but wins out right - I'm going with TB.
Other picks on the side of history: clev, Jax, gb, cincy, under in the dallas/sea game, philly, sd
Good luck all.
8-2 after the Giants won Tuesday night. Hopefully we can keep it rolling into the next round. Let's look at some numbers:
KC Sheilds 30
125 Balt. Tillman 25
Balt. opens up as a 125 fav. (donbest.com), currently around 130. Sheilds has a numerical rating of 30, while Tillman has a rating of 25 (lower the better). The numbers for each pitcher are from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give each sp a numerical rating.
In order to determine who is going to win, I look at games previously played by teams with numerical ratings exactly/close to the game being evaluated. You also must consider the opening line in any type of handicapping effort because at the end of the day - they have the resources and time to put a number on a game for a reason, the exact reason, you nor I know exactly. Yes, we can speculate, left vs right, day of the week, hitters, bullpen, better coaching, etc.
The reason I only look at sp numbers - I read a book about a sportsbook manager who said 95% of the opening line of a game was based on the starting pitcher, one year they dropped it down to 90% and got killed. To me that means it's all about the tarting pitchers and the tone they set.
Based on history (includes previous playoff games played and games played prior to the trade deadline since 2009), teams with the numerical ratings above and an opening line of 125, shows overwhelmingly that the home team usually comes out on top.
I'm going with the O's - good luck all.
7-2 thus far. We hit wash yesterday let's see if we can keep it rolling. Let's look at some numbers:
120 Wash Gio 49
Sf Vogel. 47
Wash opens up as a 120 fav. currently around 125-130 in some places. Gio has a numerical rating of 49 while vogel. has a rating of 47 (lower the better). Based on paper it is a tight matchup. Looking at history where each pitcher has similar numerical ratings along with a line of 120 - the data overwhelmingly indicates the home tam gets the win. Thus i'm on Sf. Being from the dc area I wouldn't mind seeing wash do it however, looking at it from from an investment standpoint - gotta go with the giants.
good luck all.