Let's look at some numbers:
3 Hous 14 13 20 2 28 17
Jax 32 23 29 23 31 3
Hous opens up as a 3 pt fav. Houst is better in Off. rushing, passing, def. rushing, passing, sagarn rank, while Jax is only better in Sagarin sched. strength. When you have this type of situation - what I call a 5/ 1 F situation historically the home team not only covers the spread but win's su. I'm taking Jax on the spread and a smaller wager on the mone line. Good luck all.
Happy Thanksgiving all. Let's look at the first game:
GB 5 5 19 20 19 30
4 Det 22 3 4 28 16 26
GB is better in 2 categories - Off. rushing and Def passing. While Det is better in Off. Passing, def. rushing, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength. Det. opens up as a 4 pt fav - currently around 6.5. This scenario is what I call a 2 AD/4 situation. Last week when Detroit played TB - identical situation but different opening line (which you must consider) and we saw TB win. Eventhough the line is different - historically in these situations the away team can keep it close and occasionally pull out a su win. I'm going with GB on the spread.
I recognize we have Flynn making his first start and the numbers reflect rogers and others numbers; however, because Flynn played a majority of the game last week - this change would be reflected in the opening line.
In the other games - I like Dallas and Baltimore. Good luck all.
Happy Thanksgiving all. Let's look at some numbers:
TT 9 81 44 53
5.5 Texas 46 56 36 32
Texas is better in tot def. rank, Sagarin rank, and sagarin sched. strength. While TT is only better in Total off. at 9. The line opened up at 5.5 and is currently around 4.5 or 5. I wish it was as simple as - texas is better in 3 categories that's who i'm going with - unfortunately sports betting doesn't work like that very often. Historically when you have an opening line between 5.5 and 6.5 with this type of scenario - what I call a 1 A / 3 situation - take the away team - they often win straight up. Thus i'm taking TT.
The other game - i'd be really careful on,however, for action sake - i'm going with Miss. st. Once again happy thanks giving and good luck all.
We hit NE lastnight - let's see if we can get it tonite, let's look at some numbers:
4 SF 5 32 12 10 6 20
Wash 1 11 19 26 23 5
SF opens up as a 4 pt fav currently around 5.5. SF is better in def. rushing and passing and sagarin rank. While wash is better in Rushing, passing and sagarin sched. strength. What I call a 3 CDE/ 3 ABF situation. Not a lot of historical data on this type of scenario but there was some and it indicates the home team often gets the straight up win. Be careful on this game but i'm taking Wash and a small play on the money line as well. I'm on Wash - I think it's going to be closer than what many believe. Good luck all.
This is definitely a be careful game, however, I do believe NE gets the win or will keep it close and cover - not that the margin of error is very big but 2 points is 2 points. Let's look at some numbers:
3 Denver 20 1 4 28 1 29
NE 9 16 27 12 5 26
Denver opens up as a 3 point fav.currently around 2. Denver, is better in passing, Def. rushing, and sagarin rank. While Ne is better in rushing rank, Def. passing and sagarin sched. rank. Historically when you have this situation with a 3 point line - the home team can keep it close and very often gets the win su. Denver faced Indy with this scenario earlier this season - the major difference was the line - I think it was 5.5 vice 3 - Indy won. I'm going with NE. Good luck all.