Let's look at some numbers:
-1 Fres 11.7 9.5 98 100 44.6%
Siena 14.4 12.9 151 142 39.8%
What we have here is - Fres. opens up as a 1 pt favorite (donbest.com). Both Fres and Siena have +/- assist to turnover ratios. Sagarin has fres. ranked at 98 and their schedule strength at 100. Siena on the other hand has a rank of 151 and a schedule strength of 142. Fres allows their opp. to shoot a 44.6% while on the road and siena allows 39.8% while at home.
Based on previous history when you have this scenario.....the home team gets the straight up victory. Thus i'm taking Siena. Good luck all.
I picked the Dodgers in their second game (Aus.) - thus i'm 0-1.
Until the pitchers have a game under their belt all we can go on is preseason data along with last years numbers and patterns. Here are the picks for tomorrow - i'll provide my rationale for one selection below:
1. NYM 2. Milw. 3. Cincy 4. AZ 5. Bos. 6. Tex 7. TB 8. Clev.
Let's look at the Stl/Cincy game:
115 Stl Wainw. 1.59 10 (lower the better)
Cinn Cueto 4.61 28
Stl. opened up as a 115 favorite currently around 113. Wainw. had a 1.59 era for the spring and ended last year with a numerical rating of 10 based on a formula I use from sagarin ratings. While Cueto had a spring era of 4.61 and a numerical rating of 28. On paper Stl would be the team to go with, however when you look at the opening line of 115 for the away team and when pitchers have a numerical ratings of 10-28 history has shown the home team often gets the victory. Therefore, i'm taking cincy. All of my picks follow similar rationale. In the first week of baseball, I look at the preseason era for more of an alert system for lines that don't jive with the era - then do what history has indicated or avoid them. This year there isn't a lot of crazy off base situations for opening day, so I think we will be alright. Good luck all.
I tried posting the step by step mlb system I developed and use but had many posting issues. I'll try it again in one thread probably 4 posts and see if it comes out okay:
One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed. That being said……the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.
Recognizing, they are human – imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what you are doing – which the rest of this post is trying to help you do.
A couple of things to keep in mind - one it's not familiar territory so I wouldn't go crazy. Second, any time you have opening day, it's special but for betting purposes you gotta be careful considering you don't have a lot of current data. That being said we do have data from last year, preseason data and the opening line on the game from vegas, lets look at some numbers:
120 LA Ryu 25 Preseason Era 2.20
AZ Cahill 99 " " - 7.88
Odds makers had Ryu opening up at - 120, currently around 116 - 120. Last year ryu ended the season with a pitching composite of 25 (this is a formula I use based on sagarin rankings - lower the better). While Cahill as a ranking of 99. Based on preseason data - as you can see ryu had a great preseason compared to cahill. Cahill had more strikeouts than innings pitched but gave up quite a few hits.
Looking at my data base - historically when you have what I call a small favorite with a numerical rating of 25 or something close vs a team with a rating around 99.....it indicates the home team (that's part of the problem with playing in Australia there is no home team) should get the win. Also, during the first week of the season, I look at preseason era and the opening lines on games...when something looks out of whack 2.20 vs 7.88 with a 120 opening line.....it's tempting to go with the away team....but the home team usally gets the victory. I'm on AZ.....nothing....waiting for the real opening day. Good luck all - have a great season.