Lot's of opportunities today, let's look at some numbers:
Balt. Chen 57
150 Oak Hammel 11
Oak opens up as a 150 fav. (donbest.com) . Chen has a numerical rating of 57 and Hammel 11 (lower the better). The numerical ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give every pitcher a numerical rating - thus an apples to apples comparison. At this stage you would think Oak is the team to take, however, it doesn't work that way....you need to take into account both the opening line and what history has shown when you have teams with these or very similar numerical ratings. In this case the data overwhelmingly supports taking Baltimore. Thus I take Baltimore.
In addition, I think - Atl., NY yanks., CWS, LAA, Tor (-1)
Good luck all.
I typically don't put much on these games due to too many variables (pitchers lasting an inning or two, pitchers and hitters not so in tune with each other based limited matchups, etc.) however, there is something interesting about this game.
The opening line (donbest.com) was initially - 110 for the national league, however, it changed last night to +100 for the AL. Based on my years of doing this I keep track of these non typical lines. I find when you have a line of +100 - you lessen your reliability on Pitcher data and go with the trends of a +100 line. What my data indicates - the home team with a line of +100 has strong record of 25(w) - 7(L) - regular season games over the last few years. Considering we don't have a lot to go on - I believe this may translate to the AL winning. I'm on the A.L. good luck all.
Let's look at some numbers:
Phil Burn. 45
160 Pitt. Locke 37
Pitt opens up as a 160 favorite (donbest.com). Burnett has a numerical rating of 45 (the rating is based on numbers from sagarin and a formula I use to calculate their rating - an apples to apples approach). While locke has a rating of 37 (lower the better). One would think Pitt would be the team to go with considering Locke has a better rating - unfortunately it doesn't work like that. You gotta go a step further - look at the opening line the oddsmakers put on the game 160 - now do a comparison of what historically has occurred when you have two pitchers with numerical ratings of 45 - 37 and an opening line of 160. I go to my spreadsheet and I find a high percentage of games where the away team comes out on top in these situations at a pretty consistent rate - thus I go with Philly.
Other picks based on this method: Wash, Sf,Det,CWS,Oak. Good luck all.
Let's look at some numbers:
Bos Lackey 22
110 NY Whitley 77
NY opens up as a 110 fav. (donbest.com), currently around 103. Lackey has a numerical rating of 22 and whitely 77 (a formula I use based on numbers from sagarin.com). Historically when teams have these numbers and an opening line of 110 - the home team often gets the victory. Yesterdays game between the giants and reds was almost identical to this game.....unfortunately the giants blew it, hopefully the yanks will close it out. I'm taking the yanks in the first 5 and the under along with the yanks for the game. Good luck all.
let's look at this game:
Cinncy Simone 23
110 Sf. Cain 77
Sf opens up as a 110 fav. (donbest.com) simone has a rating of 23 (lower the better) and cain has a rating of 77. The ratings are based on numbers from sagarin.com and a formula I use to come up with a rating. When you compare the numerical ratings along with the opening line of 110 for the home team......history shows the home team gets the victory more often than not. Another reason to becareful with simone tonite - he pitched great last time out and got a no decision - many times when that happens - pitchers tend to give up a bunch of runs...i'm on the giants....we shall see.