From a handicapping stand point the SB is probably one of the worst sports to bet on - that being said we still will bet on it. There are 3 things that affect a game - QB change, Coaching Change or venue change (IMO based on what I have observed). In this case - it's the venue change - data has been collected from teams playing at home or away - now they both are playing away (so the data we have can be skewed) - so while I have numbers - I find historically in the SB you do the opposite of what you would normally do. Let's look at some numbers:
Sea. 4 26 7 1 1 8
1 Den 15 1 7 27 2 17
Denver opens up as a 1 pt fav. currently around 2. Sea. is better in Rushing off. 4 to 15; Denver is better in passing 1 to 15; they are both tied in rushing def. 7 to 7; seattle is better in passing def. 1 to 27; sea is better in sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength. Sea is better in 4 of the major categories while Denver is better in only passing off. On paper during the playoffs - teams that have a better def. composite - (seat 8 - Denver 34) typically come out on top - it happened in both games two weeks ago - Denver had a better def. than NE and Sea had a better def. than sf. In addition, look at schedule strength - teams that play a better schedule often win/cover during the playoffs. It occurred numerous times during the playoffs. I also, recognize many of us like doing the opposite of what most people do - clearly the public appears to love denver . I don't let the public sway my thinking but I do look at it - I use numbers and historical patterns to ultimately decide.
In this case - looking at the opening line and the data - historically seattle would be the choice but based on many superbowls you do the opposite of what it's telling you and you go with Denver.
This occurred last year as well - Sf was the clear choice (based on my data) but the opposite occurred and the ravens won. The line opened at 5 and quickly dropped to 3.5. This year the line opened at 1 and quickly went to 2.5. - so don't get hung up on the public/consensus. Take Denver. As always good luck to all.
Let's look at some numbers:
Boise 11.3 10.4 61 89 43.2%
4.5 Nmex 16.3 10.8 55 65 38.8%
Nmex opens as a 4.5 fav. - currently around 5 - 5.5. Nmex avgs. 16.3 assists per game while having 10.8 turnovers - while playing at home; Nmex has a sagarin rank of 55 and sched. strength of 65 and while at home they allow their opp. to shoot 38.8%. Clearly Nmex looks like the pick at this point.
Just so we understand - Boise avgs. 11.3 assists and 10.4 turnovers; sagarin rank of 61 - sched. strength of 89 and allows opps.to shoot 43.2% when on the road.
Nmex is better in every category listed. Based on historical results.....when you have a situation like this - home team is better in all categories with an opening line of 4.5 - the away team often gets the f/h cover, game cover and possibly wins the came su. I'm on Boise for the game - small play on f/h and a little wager on Boise for the M/l. Good luck all.
We hit both the games last sunday - sf and Sd - let's see if we can get it today - let's look at some numbers:
NE 9 10 30 18 6 25
7 Den 15 1 7 27 3 20
Den opens up as a 7 point fav. - currently around 5 - 5.5. Ne is better in off. rushing rank and Def. Passing rank. Den is better in off. Passing, def. rushing, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength. This is what I call a 2/4 - AD situation ( I label everything A,B,C,D,E,F) - it helps me identify historical patterns. When you have this situation with a high spread 6.5 or higher - the favored team usually covers by a significant margin. Thus I'm on DENVER.
The second game....is a lot tougher - lot's of times you see low scoring - often with an opening line of 3.5 - the home team squeaks out the cover. I plan to take a Parlay with Denver on t spread/Seattle M/L. The a straight play on the under. Good luck all.
We hit the Sf game let's see if we can make it 2 in row. Let's look some numbers:
SD 13 4 12 29 7 16
10 Den 15 1 7 27 2 21
Denver opens up as 10 point fav. currently around 8. Denver is better in off. passing, def. rushing, def. passing, sagarin rank. Where sd is only better in rushing rank and sagarin sched. strength.
If history repeats itself then sd should get the cover and possibly win su. Last year when balt/denv matched up you had the exact scnenario as you do today - meaning balt. ad Denver were better in the same categories a above. The only difference - the line opened up as 9.5 for Denver. I think Sd should get the cover.
Let's look at some numbers:
PK SF 3 30 4 7 3 9
CAR 11 29 2 6 4 13
The game opens up as a pk - it's around 1 currently for sf. Sf is better in rushing rank, sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength; while CAR is better in off. Passing, def. rushing and def. passing.
There's several reasons why sf. Playoffs are where the better teams rise to the top. Last week the teams with the better sagarin rank won every game except the sand/cin game. Yesterday Seattle won out right and the game was a push based on the opening line of 8 (I know a lot got a higherline). In the indy game indy had a better sagarin - but the odds makers had NE as 7.5 favorites - that's a situation where you go with what the oddsmakers are indicating.
In this particular game with the line opening as a pick - I believe the better sagarin team comes out on top. Just like last week when SF played GB and NO played Philly. Low spreads - indicates home field advantage does't mean much and the better team wins. Good luck all.