Let’s look at some numbers:
KC 6 30 9 4 2 15
4.5 NE 30 4 8 17 9 24
NE opens up as a 4.5 fav. Currently around 5 pts. KC is better in rushing off. At 6 def. passing at 4, sagarin rank and sched. Strength. NE is better in Off. Passing rank and def. rushing rank. When you go back into playoff history – we had one game where this similar scenario occurred – NYJ/cincy -3.5 - The line was diffefent but similar scenario and the Jets won su. Schedule strength is another thing that makes me think KC should be able to keep it close and may when su.
My Plays: 1. KC +5 2. GB +7.5
Good luck all
Another bowl season is upon us. We had a positive regular season and have done well in past bowl seasons including a 23-12 record last year. When handicapping bowl games – i have found you need to make adjustments based on the fact the teams are usually playing on a neutral site. I use the current numbers and spread but I compare them to the previous bowl games played – NOT the regular season. The picks I select are all based on what trends bowl games have shown for a particular scenario the past 6 yrs. Let’s look at some numbers:
66 Ark st 36 (t.O) 67 (t.D) 70 (sag.rank) 131 (s.sched)
Ltech 27 54 78 123
In this game, the over/under opened up at 66 – currently around 68. Ltec is better in every category except Sagarin rank. Historically, when you have this situation teams score lot’s of points. I’m taking the over – not messing with a side.
My plays : 1. Over 68 Arkst/Ltec 2. Nmex +8 3. BYU + 2.5 4. App. St – 7 5. Ga st +2.5 6. NDK st – 13.5 (Friday nite)
Good luck all.
I went 4-10 last week record stands at 123-99 – I usually don’t post if I’m running bad but I want to finish what I started. Let’s look at some numbers:
7 NC 19 56 14 68
Ncst 64 13 43 73
NC opens up as a 7 pt fav. Currently around 4. NC is better in Total Off., Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. Strength. Nc state is better in Total def. In this case – history shows the home team covers the spread and usually wins the game su.
My plays: 1. Nc state +4 2. Nc State m/line +170 3. Fla st – 2.5 4. Nwester – 3 5. Texst/Idaho over 67.5 6. Tex am +5.5 7. Okla. – 7.5 8. Stanford – 3 9. Under Pennst/mich st 44 10. Under Vandy/tenn 41.5 11. Ky +5 12. App st – 23
Good Luck all.
I had a good week in the pros last week – thought I’d share. Let’s look at some numbers:
Philly 11 14 28 16 10 20
PK Detroit 32 8 24 19 27 1
The game opens up as a PK – currently the line favors det at -2.5. Philly is better in off. Rushing, def. passing and sagarin rank. Detr. Is better in off. Passing, def. rushing, and sagarin schedule strength.
When you mix it all up and you look at games played previously with this type of scenario along with an opening line of PK or low spreads 1, 1.5 – the away team usually gets the victory su. I’m taking Philly +2.5.
My Plays: 1. Philly +2.5 2. Dallas -1 3. Chicago +8
Good luck all and may all of you have a great Thanksgiving.
We went 9 – 11 last week – record stands at 119-90. Not sure if anyone watched the Charlotte game but I’ve never seen more incompetent refs and idiot players involved in a football game. We got the cover, however, we should have gotten the mline win. I’ve moved on. Let’s look at some numbers:
Monroe 121 100 166 81
4.5 Tex. State 49 127 161 111
Tex state opens up as a 4.5 fav. Currently around 6.5. Tex state is better in Total off. And sagarin rank, while Monroe is better in total def. and sagarin sched. Strength. I recognize the coach got fired for Monroe and a few injures on the off. Line. IMO believe the odds makers have made whatever adjustments necessary for these changes. If there was a starting QB injured I’d be concerned but I don’t think that is the case – please correct me if I’m wrong. When you have this type of scenario along with an opening line of 4.5 my numbers indicate – the away team usually covers and often wins su.
My plays: 1. Monroe 2. Monroe +210
Good Luck all