I posted this in response to his thread. I just had to post it as a stand alone thread. I have been around this for 50 years. Some years better than others. I never started winning consistently until I started to establish some personal rules or guidelines that I hold sacred.
Here is my response in his post:
"" 70, but who is counting
If you are, or wanna be, a handicapper. (not the same as gambler) you are going to have to develop certain skills and a LOT of self discipline (I call them my personal RULES). You start with money management because even good cappers can have a bad streak. Live to bet another day.
Don't play too many games. It's hard enough to find 2-3 value plays a week. Sure, there are times when you might like 5-6. When that happens, make a list of your leans, rank them, and then taper your wager amounts. Put more on your top 2 or 3, and less on the next 2-3. You don't have to bet every game. The real goal is to make money. Keep your eye on the prize.
Don't ever think you are a professional....... you are not. Play within your self. (Clint said it best: A man has to know his limitations)
Learn how to evaluate matchups, this is your only chance. The books are very very good. If you can understand how two teams matchup, find the advantage there, then you have an edge on the public bettors. The books aim for the public bettors.
Bad teams are bad teams, Good teams are good teams. Good coaches are good coaches. Bad coaches are bad coaches... Always look for an edge in those areas.
In football.... The QB is the most important player on the field. Steve Wynn said it best: "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" A good QB is essential in today's football game.
Don't beat yourself up too much when you lose. Don't break your arm patting yourself on your back when you win. You can be very successful winning 2 out of 3. Nobody wins 70% NOBODY. In fact, it's hard to hit over 75% just picking the winner, without the spread.... try it sometime. (IF you pick every game)
Never put too much weight on a teams last bad or good performance. Books use that perception to set their lines against the public for the next week.
Your bet has nothing to do with who wins or loses a game. It has nothing to do with which teams you like or hate. That's a sure way to get to take advantage of a "reload bonus" It has to do with VALUE. Value is found where you find a matchup advantage for a team that is greater than the books line.
I have more, but you have to do these things well before you are worthy Grasshopper. ""
Originally Posted by The_BigDog] Originally Posted by snowjocky:
Thanks for the opportunity to win . I can't believe that I actually won.
Size X large
aka ( snowjocky )
Las Vegas , Nv 89108
To The Big Dog
Again thanks [/Quote
Great Job, I will order it today... Ralph
I recieved the shirt ,and it's great.
Congratulations to "SnowJocky" for taking first place in my Bowl Challenge..... Your Tshirt is ready, PM me your size and address.
Thanks to everyone who participated...
It's only 235 days until the Chick-Fil-A kickoff classic... Clemson-Georgia....
It;s going to be another long off season for SEC haters.. sorry about that
Merry Christmas to all my degenerate Covers Friends. May you and your family have a blessed holiday. It's been great sharing our mutual interest in making it just a little more difficult for the Grinch (bookies) this year
This bowl game offers the typical lower level bowl type matchup. A MID LEVEL TEAM from a major conference versus A TOP LEVEL TEAM from a second tier conference.
I give you: Arizona a MID LEVEL PAC 12 team versus Nevada a TOP LEVEL MWC team
Typically the team from the lower level conference takes this opportunity to show that they are better than the public gives them credit for. They are EXCITED to be there and they are usually very ready to play.
While the “better” team has typically lost their last game, which on top of what was an already a very disappointing season, is now compounded by having to play in this “shxxt bowl” (Fill in the name of the bowl).
I give you: Arizona versus Nevada
Keeping that in mind, this could be a very entertaining game to watch. We have two very offense minded coaches featuring the top two rushers in the nation in this game…
#1 Arizona’s Ka’Deem Carey; 275 rushes for 1,757 yards, 20 TD, 6.39 YPR, 146.4 YPG
#2 Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson; 341 rushes for 1,703 yards, 22 TD, 4.99 YPR, 141.9 YPG
Nevada averages 260 YPG rushing and Arizona 230 YPG….. On the surface, it appears that both teams are fairly equal in rushing stats. But not all rushing yards are created equal. Nevada’s stats are padded by these performances: 1,460 of 3,120 total rushing yards came against: New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii & FCS NW State. While Arizona gained only 760 of their 2.765 yards against their two creampuffs; Colorado, & FCS SC State
Who is easier to run on? Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State OR New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, Texas State, Wyoming and FCS NW State?`
Arizona has four quality wins; USC, Washington, Oklahoma State and Toledo.
Their five loses were against; Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State… A combined 47-13 WL record.
Nevada has six FBS wins against teams with a combined 24-61 record. The highest ranked team they beat was Wyoming (89). And Nevada was 0-4 against teams with winning records.
Let’s talk rushing defenses; both teams have had issues stopping the run this season. Arizona ranks near the bottom of the PAC-12 giving up 189 rushing YPG, Nevada is giving up 213 rushing YPG. But, Not so fast….. Once again, Arizona gave up their yards to a significantly better level of competition. This stuff matters.
I have not spent much time talking about passing performances because I feel the key to this game is the rushing game. I feel that Arizona has the edge in the passing game as evidenced by a 50 YPG advantage against much better defenses. That’s my story and I am sticking to it.
Typically I look for these kinds of matchups and take the points, especially if I can get to or across a key number like 10 in this case. It would be easy to buy it from +9.5 to +10. You can study a matchup until you get cross-eyed. At some point you have to input your actual observations from watching actual games each team has played.
You want THE WILDCARD FACTOR for this game? Arizona is currently ranked NUMBER ONE in the PAC-12 recruiting class!!! I know those kids will not play in this game, but do you think Rich Rod wants to lay an egg here? I think Arizona has a LOT OF POSITIVE MOMENTUM, in spite of the ASU loss and not playing in a better bowl. I think that intangible along with an in depth analysis of the raw numbers, makes me want to lay the points here.
Another way to play this game. Arizona is 17th in nation with 37.3 PPG and Nevada is 20th with 37.0 PPG… That’s 74.3 Average PPG. The total is set at 75 in this game. I think the OVER is a very righteous play here. I would not be surprised to see it go significantly over that number.
TOTAL OVER 75
I play with actual money, so please don't be shy. Honest input would be appreciated.