Record: 39-25
Portland -5.5 ($1,650 to win $1,500)
I have a theory I have used for close to 20 years in CBB and it's has done really well for me. When a bad team plays its biggest game of the year on national TV, suffers a heartbreaking defeat in that game and then returns to play a home game a couple of days later, go against that team. My reasoning is obvious but profitable. The bad team expends all of its energy for the huge TV game and isn't mentally prepared to play its next opponent. Anyone who saw Santa Clara play Gonzaga on Thursday knows what I mean. The Broncs led virtually the entire game until Gonzaga closed on a 20-4 run to steal a victory. Up until about 3:00 left in that game it looked like the Broncs would pull the huge upset and the fans would storm the court but Santa Clara let the game slip away as quickly as any lead I've seen in a while.
The Gonzaga game is everything to that school. To beat Gonzaga on ESPN was their Super Bowl. In my opinion, there is no way those kids will be there Saturday night against Portland. Not only the players but the fans as well. That gym will be dead. That's why part of the theory is the losing team playing again at home. The entire school is numb from that loss so being back at home is tougher than going on the road in my opinion. Also, this is a young Santa Clara team so I think it hurts even more. The Broncs left everything they had on the court Thursday night and still came up short.
I think we have the perfect opponent in Portland who has pulled together and played well since losing star Nik Raivio. The Pilots get Santa Clara in a perfect spot coming off a gut wrenching loss to the mighty Zags. Portland has taken care of weaker WCC teams on the road and played well at St Mary's. Besides, Santa Clara is far from a strong home team. They have already lost to Northern Arizona, San Jose State, Northeastern, Wofford, Harvard, San Diego, St Mary's and Gonzaga by six points or more at home this season. They did, however, manage to beat Dominican (CA) by four and New Hampshire by three though. lol
All that is enough to make this my strongest play of the regular season so far.
I know these games never win on Covers so feel free to fade the pick. I have used this theory a lot over the years and while I don't have an exact record, it's been very profitable. It's just one play so if you decide to go along just make sure and manage your money wisely. If I lose it will hurt but there is always the next game in gambling. Anyway, please do your own research first to see if you agree with me on this game before betting it. I really love Portland here but I have been wrong before. Hopefully this won't be one of those times. Good luck.