trying to get out in front of the line moves, so locking in a couple of games before they move against me...trying to anticipate the market a bit and get some value...
figure there will be plenty of seattle money this week, as they've looked nothing short of dominant thus far. meanwhile houston hasn't been overly impressive, even before yesterday's stink bomb at baltimore. lay the 2.5 now before it goes 3, 3.5.
disappointed in the cards yesterday as i expected them to at least give the saints a good game. but i want nothing to do with this bucs team, 1-8 SU in their last 9 and some dissension in the ranks. TB doesnt have a great track record at home the past few yrs, plus look for a bounce-back from a solid arizona defense against a below avg offense.
i'm not ready to jump on the dallas bandwagon just yet. SD has looked much better than i expected so far, and were 15 seconds away from stealing one yesterday in spite of the terrible schedule spot (b2b east coast 1 pm games). McCoy has handed the keys to Rivers, and he's performed well so far, and i look for him to exploit what i think is a weak dallas secondary.
comments welcome, good luck everyone!
SJ St +4
gotta take a shot with a team that's 21-6 ATS over the past 2+ seasons and 16-5 ATS in their L21 gms on the road. The Gophers have looked good vs a very weak schedule so far, and have their conference opener on deck. Might be tough for Minny to be focused for their 4th straight non-conf game. SJ St will be missing top WR Grigsby, but they have a good QB in Fales and a solid enough offense to keep them in this one.
I don't think Miss St has the offense to run away and hide in this one. Troy is used to stepping up in class and playing SEC teams on the road, so they won't be intimidated. Troy covered LY vs Miss St and out-gained them by 115 yds. They've also covered at Tennessee and at Arkansas the past 2 seasons. My biggest worry in a game like this is turnovers, but with Corey Robinson and Deon Anthony, i think Troy's offense has a good shot at keeping them in this one til the end.
Florida -3...the Gators havent been a good ATS team when laying big points, but they are used to playing in and grinding out close victories. not ready to jump on the Miami bandwagon just yet, this was an awful run defense last season (in the ACC no less) and will be facing an offense that will try to run it down their throat. Florida the better overall team from the better conference.
Miami-Ohio +17.5...can't turn down that many points vs Kentucky, who is still trying to figure out their new up-tempo offense and QB situation. just don't see them running away and hiding in this one; this isn't your typical upper-echelon SEC team that can walk in and blow out any non-AQ opponent. the hook makes it even better.
The two offenses have combined for 8 runs in the first 2 games of the series, and i don't foresee things getting any easier tonight. Cliff Lee has been solid as usual, with a 40:7 K:BB and 5 QS in 7 appearances. Trevor Cahill has been a bit more surprising, going 7+ IP in 4 of his last 5 starts, sporting a 2.80 ERA, while the DBacks have gone 6-1 U in his starts. Perhaps he's out-pitching his skills, but I'm going to ride the train til it crashes.
Two pretty weak offenses (Miami easily last in NL in OPS, LA has scored <= 3 runs in 7 of their last 10) and two pretty solid SP's. Kevin Slowey has 5 QS in his last 6 outings, has a 36:8 K:BB, and the Marlins are 6-1 U in his starts. Meanwhile Ryu has rung up a 48:12 K:BB in only 43 IP while holding opponents to a <.300 OBP. We have a favorable ump (Kulpa 46-25 U the past 3 seasons) and a night game on the West Coast.
Also have to look at Miami +182...I'm certainly not laying -190+ with an LAD team that is 1-9 in their L10 and is already down 14 units on the season.