Part 1
To begin, I would like to take a stroll down memory lane and take a peek at the past 5 wild card rounds, to get a feel and flavor for the type of action (dogs, favs, home, road) we can anticipate.
2010
NO 36 NO -10
Sea 41 home dog
NYJ 17
Indy 16 Indy -2 road dog
Balt 30
KC 7 Balf -3 road fav
GB 21
Phil 16 Phil -1.5 road dog home 1-3, fav 1-3
2009
NYJ 24 Jets -2.5
Cin 14 road fav
Phil 14
Dal 34 Dal -4 home fav
Balt 33
NE 14 NE -3 road dog
GB 45 GB -1
Ari 51 home dog home 2-2, fav 2-2
2008
Atl 24
Ari 30 Ari -2 home fav
Ind 17 Ind -2
SD 23 home dog
Balt 27 Balt -3.5
Mia 9 road fav
Phil 26
Min 14 Phil -3.5 road fav home 2-2, fav 3-1
2007
Wa 14
Sea 35 Sea -3.5 home fav
Jack 31
Pit 29 Jack -3 home dog
NYG 24
TB 14 TB -3 road dog
Ten 6
SD 17 SD -10.5 home fav home 3-1, fav 2-2
2006
KC 8
Indy 23 Indy -7 home fav
Dal 20
Sea 21 Sea -2 road dog
NYJ 16
NE 37 NE -9.5 home fav
NYG 20
Phil 23 Phil -6.5 road dog home 2-2, fav 2-2
ALL ATS:
Home Dog 4, Home Fav 6, Road Dog 6, Road Fav 4
Home 10/20 Road 10/20
Fav 10/20 Dog 10/20
My point in this exercise is to show that in the Wild Card round, it is pretty much a toss up as to how Home, Road, Fav, Dog come out. The implication is that if you go with all favs, or dogs, or home, or road teams...you will likely go 50%
Part 2 next.....
In this final week of the reg season, I will be looking at match ups which have huge import regarding the playoffs, and games in which the playoff team has little to play vs the team playing their final game of the season and approaching their season finale as their own personal Super Bowl.
SF -10.5 @ SL. SF dominated SL earlier to the tune of a 26-0 shutout. SF is 11-3 ATS overall and 8-2 ATS as a fav. SL is 2-12 ATS overall and 2-10 as a dog. I like SF to take care of business in this mismatch and clinch #2 seed. I know SL will play their best in this season finale but honestly, they don't have what it takes to beat a motivated SF team which has been pretty darn good on the road as well. I give SF a pass for losing @ Ari after SF clinched their division and losing @ Balt on 3 days rest.
Det -3.5 @ GB. GB has HFA and should be resting starters as early as possible in this game with nothing to gain by playing for a win. Det needs this game to clinch #5 seed. I don't think Det would want Atl to take over the #5 seed as if I am not mistaken, the #6 seed would have to go to NO and that would be terrible for the road team. NO is 4-0 all by blowouts at home in Prime Time games. Det already was beat convincingly in NO in a Prime Time game this season, as was Atl MN. I think it would be much better for Det to have to play @NYG or Dal. I like Det -3.5 with something to play for vs GB with nothing to play for.
Car @ NO -9. I'm probably going to catch some shit for this pick, but I like Car +9. Car is 9-6 ATS this season, catching 9 pts looks really good to me in this spot. Aside from this being a divisional rivalry, Car usually plays NO tough and the fact is that since this is Car's last game of this season, this IS their Super Bowl and I expect them to play like it. On the other hand, I do know NO would like to win #2 seed but since that completely depends on SF losing @ SL which I think is very unlikely, I think it would be really smart of NO to use this game to rest. I know they won't at first unless they can see on the scoreboard that SF is taking care of business. In either case, I like Car to play a fired up game with an opportunity to show what they've got vs a playoff-bound team.
Ten -3 @ Hou. Another "Super Bowl" game for a non playoff bound team. Ten will be looking to avenge their home loss to Hou. Hou having thrown away their opportunity to battle for #2 seed has nothing to play for at this point, and much to gain by resting and preparing to host a wild card game. Also, I was startled by Hou's conservative game planning and play calling @ Indy which I was able to watch on TV. What struck me most is that Hou was playing "not to lose"...they were NOT playing to win. They were run, run, pass and run, run, run which is what I call "dinosaur mentality" football. That is the most predictable style of football and IMO hands the advantage over to the defense. The dinosaurs went extinct and that conservative style of football in most cases dooms that team's win chances to extinction too, lol. It's like that old adage regarding "prevent defense" which pretty much only serves to prevent teams from winning....LOL. What the Hou/Indy game showed me besides a less than innovative and talented play calling/game planning staff, is how much Hou distrusts their QB Yates and their unwillingness to use the QB position to it's fullest. That's unfortunate for Hou because I think Yates has the ability to get the job done. With nothing to play for, they will lose to Ten and I don't even like their chances to win a playoff game either for that matter if they continue their current offensive strategy. It would be a huge and really smart surprise if Hou came out aggressive in the playoffs throwing on 1st downs, but I think it's unlikely.
Bills @ NE -11.5. NE has locked up #1 seed already. I expect them to start preparing for the playoffs by resting this game. NE has not been so good at home this year, an unimpressive 3-4 ATS and laying dd points here where they are 1-5 ATS laying 10-5 to 14 points at home in the last 3 seasons. Here's a great opportunity for Buf to end their disappointing season on a positive note. I like Buf plus all those points. Having already beat NE earlier on when it mattered doesn't hurt their confidence either going into this game.
TB @ Atl -12. I love TB here which I know sounds insane. I am anticipating that Det will have beat GB in the early game, and Atl with nothing to play for in the late game. If they are smart, they will rest and prepare for the next week @ NO. Here's a chance for crap team TB to put a smile on their collective faces going into the off season. 12 points is a bunch if Atl has no motivation and rests key players! Of course, if Det loses @ GB, that would change everything as Atl would benefit greatly not being doomed to revisit the Superdome. In that case, Atl would be the pick to thrash a lousy TB team. I'm thinking that by waiting to see what happens in the early games, this line could drop dramatically if Det beats GB earlier because I could then see people betting TB knowing Atl should have no motivation. I will likely take a shot with TB plus the 12 expecting Det to win in GB and if Det loses, I could still hedge later.
Balt @ Cin -2.5. I'm not overly enthused about this game but I have to lean Cin since it's a win and you're in or a lose and you're done game. Also, Balt has been less than impressive on the road and not too impressive lately allowing 2 backdoor covers against crap teams: Clev and Indy and getting smashed on the road at SD in between. Balt is playing for an all important #2 seed but Cin is playing for their collective playoff lives.
Pit @ Cleve. No line. I expect Pt has to realize that Balt has a chance to lose @ Cin and since they both play in the late games, I have to think they will be playing to win so they can be the division winner and Balt the wild card team. That being the case, I like Pit depending on the spread. A road game against a division rival in their season finale I would expect a low point spread, but...? However, if Balt is crushing Cin early on which I would find surprising, then I could see scoreboard watching Pit to pull starters and start resting up for the next week.
SD @ Oak -3. Will SD be deflated having flubbed their playoff hopes @ Det? Of course Oak will be pumped to win and have a chance to make the playoffs...divisional title if they win and Den loses and Wild Card hopes if Balt knocks off Cin... Normally, I like Oak as a dog and not so much as a fav but Oak has owned SD of late (Oak swept the entire division last season and beat SD in SD already this season 24-17. I have to pick Oak here at home to beat them again.
KC @ Den -3. Den 1-3 ATS as a fav and KC 8-3 as a dog. Orton with a chance to make a statement about who is the better QB with a win and spoil Den's playoff aspirations. I'll go with the ATS trends....KC as a good dog. Not even going to discuss the wheels having come off of the Tebow wagon train.
Dal @ NYG -3. What have I been saying week after week about NYG? They win when you expect them to lose, and lose when you expect them to win. Will this week be different? Dal is 2-2 ATS as a dog, 3-3 on the road. NYG is 2-5 ATS as a fav, and 2-4 at home. I can see this game going either way, I may pass or I may have to not so much bet on Dal as much as bet against NYG anticipating them to continue their schizo ways....
BOL EVERYONE!!!!
Chi +18
Under 47.5
NO -.5 3 team teaser 1 unit to win 1.8 units
1st Q
GB -3 -115 1 unit
With 1st Seed at stake, I expect GB to play fired up out of the gate
and coming off their loss @ KC, I also think they'll be particularly motivated early. Later in the game, I can see them going into kill the clock mode and sitting starters. It's going to be cold, and I don't see Chi suddenly being effective putting points on the board, so it looks to me that Unders is also a reasonable idea, hence my teaser.
BOL
Narrowed my card down to:
Balt -12
SD +2
Sea +1
Phil +1
Lean - NYG
Balt - Cleve has been dominated by Balt for quite awhile. I like that Balt was humiliated last SN and so I think they come into this game with some attitude. Thanks to some help: Pit losing @ SF, Hou losing @ Indy.....Balt is now front-runner for the #2 seed and has plenty of motivation.
SD - SD red hot of late and in Dec bring their win rate to 25-2. I know Det is playing to clinch a playoff spot, but they do have some cushion tied with Atl @ 9-5 leading the rest of the wild card chasers who are 7-7. SD can't hold anything back for this contest due to the fact that if they lose, that's their season and so, it's a MUST WIN game. While SD has been playing dominating FB their last 3 games, Det is coming in with 2 less than impressive wins: 34-28 over Min, 28-27 over Oak.
Sea - SF off their "statement" game win over Pit MN and now follow as a road fav vs a hot Sea team sporting some decent trends too: 8-2 ATS against conf., 3-1 ATS vs team with winning record, 8-3 as a dog, 6-2 on turf. The key IMO is that although SF is hunting the #2 seed, they are on the short week, off a big emotional win, playing a Sea team that is MUST WIN or done, and biggest factor of all, playing in Sea where the fan noise is a big handicap for the visitors.
Phil - Dal needs this game, but if they lose they are not necessarily done. Phil is MUST WIN and is rolling into this match up playing very good ball beating Mia 26-10 and Jets 45-19. Dal has a history of choking these big games. Dal very undependable @ 3-7 ATS as a favorite.
My first play is:
Balt -6
SD +8
Sea +7
Phil +7 6 pt teaser 1 unit to win 3 units
Regarding my loser Hou pick:
At least having watched that game I have some good insight on Houston going forward. Hou's defense played really, really good and that effort was completely wasted due to horrifically conservative offensive play calling. I expected them to go into Indy playing to win. They absolutely did not. They played "not to lose" and that is a huge difference. When a team plays to win, they are aggressive and will use 1st down to throw the ball (see how the Niners played Mon nt? THAT'S how you play to win!). I can't stand teams that play run, run, pass...that's old-school, dinosaur-mentality football. It's completely predictable and gives the advantage to the opp's defense. Hou was playing run, run run! Wow! They were playing as though Yates was going to lose the game if they turned him loose. IMO, that is why Hou lost the game. I don't see them changing anything for the playoffs as it is painfully obvious to me they don't trust their QB. Their current style of football is losing football (0-2 last 2 weeks against combined 7-22 SU teams with 2 of those 7 wins coming gratis Hou and considering they did want to win those games, that says a whole bunch right there!) I didn't like what I saw Th Nt and I'm thinking that whoever they have to play hosting the Wild Card round, I'm seriously going to consider taking the road team and the points. They are NOT going to win a playoff game playing like that.
BOL!
I just bet Hou -5.5 for 1 unit now for the Thurs Nt. Prime Time match up.
I'm thinking that once people get over their hang-over with the Pit loss MN or their celebrating the SF win...they are going to figure out the following and bet this line up. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe there will be support for the Colts, but consider the following:
The backdrop for this game:
NE 11-3 1st seed
Hou 10-4 8-2 conf 2nd seed
Balt 10-4 7-3 conf
Pit 10-4 8-3 conf
Balt is ahead of Pit in their division because of the div record.
However, for the 2nd seed in the AFC playoffs, Hou is ahead of both of them due to the better conf record.
Hou has everything to play for with 2 games left to earn #2 seed!
SF had a let down @ Ari after clinching their division. A real stinker
game yet they came back with a vengeance and beat Pit at home.
Hou had a let down vs Car after clinching their division, a real stinker
game too - embarrassing really - seemingly blowing their chance to
maintain their lead for 2nd seed. Now, thanks to Balt and Pit both
losing, they have a reprieve and another chance to take care of
business. I expect they are collectively and absolutely thrilled for
this opportunity.
Earning a bye in the wild card round and home
field advantage for the next round is a HUGE deal. Having to host a wild card game in the first round is not
something that will help their chances to go deeper into the playoffs at
all.That extra week rest and
facing the winner of the wild card round is BIG motivation. The coaches know it, the players know it, they will fight for it. This time of year, winning in the NFL is all about Playoff Motivation scenarios unless there are over-riding considerations. I don't see any here....
I lean to the home team in Prime Time match ups unless I have very good reason not to. This is one of those games....
I expect Hou to atone for their horrible showing last Sun and tromp on
the Colts, much like the Niners did to Pit. Colts just got the monkey
off their backs and beat Ten. They are no longer the same win-less
desperado they were last week. Hou is the much better team than Indy (it's
a mismatch) this season and they will want to show the world on Prime Time that
they deserve to be where they are and show they are a force to be
reckoned with going forward. Also, heading into the playoffs on a winning note is a good thing IMO. They need to show and prove to themselves and everyone else that last week was an aberration. They did pound Indy 34-7 in week one and I think the -5.5 I just got on one of my online books is a
cheap price here all considered. My other book is showing -6. Maybe I will find that I jumped the gun and the line comes down, but I'm fine with it as I expect them to win by 7 or more anyway.
You might argue that Ind will want to show something too on Prime Time... I heard that same argument for TB for their last game hosting Dal and that's not how it turned out. I didn't buy it for that game, I won't buy it here either. I expect a similar result here as what was seen in Dal @ TB.
Hou: PF/PA 24.5/16.9; Indy: 15.1/28.2
Hou 7-2 (all ATS) vs conf opponents, 3-0 vs division, 6-2 as a fav, 5-2 road, 1-0 road fav 3.5-7pts.
Indy 4-6 conf, 1-3 div, 5-8 dog
winner vs loser
Playoff team vs crap team.
I just hit my 6th straight Prime Time game: NYG @ Dal, SL @ Sea, Jack @ Atl, Dal @ TB, Balt @ SD, Pit @ SF and taking my shot at #7. Maybe here is where I lose one now but I don't think so....
I'll risk 1 unit so it's not the end of the world if I figured this all wrong.
Your comments, opinions and ideas are very welcome here.
BOL everyone!