For reasons that no rational human being could possible understand, another school gave Todd Berry a coaching job. That school is the UL-Monroe.
For those of you that don't remember Berry, he is the genius that went to Army and tried to install a Pro Style passing attack. Yes, a Pro Style passing attack at Army. The result? A record of 5-36.
The guy won five games in four years at Army and somehow he got another job. Berry is Paul Hackett/Lou Tepper bad. He is an awful, awful gameday coach with no imagination at all. If you want to make money this year, fade this idiot and UL-Monroe every week. The scores of their games will get real ugly.
I am making a standing $200 bet against the Warhawks every week. I will bump this thread at the end of the season and let you all know how I made out. I'm guessing 8-9 wins but we'll see.
Todd Berry. That is funny stuff. UL-Monroe is going to long for Charlie Weatherbie and his 6-6 seasons after this guy runs the program into the ground.
What does everyone think about Nebraska this year? I believe they will be the most debated team by us fans heading into the season.
The defense is still nasty but I don't care what anyone says, you aren't better without Suh. I think he makes the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Plus, they gave up 10 points per game last year. It's hard to get much better than that.
Either way, the defense is going to be nasty and one of the best in the country. There is no question about that. Pelini is one of the best defensive coaches on the planet and there is still a lot of talent in Lincoln, even with Suh gone.
I think Roy Helu Jr. is going to have a breakout year but the big question is the offense. The O-Line and quarterback play must improve. I think the Huskers will be OK on the line but I'm not sure about the quarterback. Watching that passing game was difficult at times last year. However, while I said it will be hard for the defense to get much better, I don't think the quarterback play can get much worse, so it should be improved in 2010.
What do all you guys think? Are the Huskers a legit National Title contender or this year's version of Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, meaning they are being overhyped based on how the team finished last season?
Let me know what you think. Let's get the debate started.
I was thinking about it the other day so I decided to look it up. I don't think the bye week in the playoffs is as important as it used to be years ago. In the last four years, at least one team that didn't earn a bye made it to the Super Bowl.
The reason I think we are starting to see a change in this is because there are no dominant teams like their used to be years ago. I think today all the teams are so close that sometimes taking a week off actually hurts you. This all started when the Pats run of three titles in four years ended.
Back when teams like Dallas or San Fran were powers, they were so good that usually only one other team was really in their class. Take the 90's Cowboys for instance. The 49ers were really the only team they had to get through once the playoffs started. It made no difference who Dallas played in the Divisional round. That team had no shot. So when a team is that good, I think a bye week is beneficial to rest up some players because a week off doesn't really affect them. They just turn it back on after the bye.
In San Fran's case, it was either Chicago, Washington or the Giants that they had to beat. I'm not saying there weren't any other good teams but the Niners and Cowboys were clearly the cream of the crop. We don't have that kind of dominance in the league anymore. There are too many teams and the talent pool is too spread out thanks to free agency, something that didn't come around until the start of Dallas' run.
Now let's look at today's NFL. In the AFC the top rated Colts play the sixth seeded Ravens. There just isn't a huge difference in 2010 between the top seed in the conference and the team that barely made the playoffs. These two already played this year and it was a 17-15 game.
The reason I think we are seeing a change in philosophy is because there are no great teams and even though you have to play an extra game, it may be better not to take a week off if you are coming into the playoffs hot.
Look at Dallas. They almost got a bye. Do you think that would have helped them? I don't. I think a team like the Cowboys is better getting right back out on the field and playing the following week.
Think about that Colts/Ravens match-up. Baltimore went into New England where Belichick and Brady never lost a playoff game and tore them up. They are riding high right now. Meanwhile the Colts won't have played a meaningful game in almost a month when they take the field Saturday. I'm not saying Indy won't win, it's just an example.
Finally, I believe because the teams are so close that a lot depends on who is playing good football at the right time. A lot of times the teams that get a one or two seed peaked too early in the season and held on down the stretch. We saw this with both the Saints and Vikings in the NFC. Again, I'm not saying those teams can't or won't win but I don't think too many people would argue that Minnesota and New Orleans are playing their best football heading into the playoffs. Are those teams good enough to just turn it back on when they feel like it? We'll see.
I leave it to you guys to pick the winners. But in my opinion I don't see the bye week in the playoffs as meaningful as it once was back in the 80's and 90's and recent history supports that theory. I'm not trying to tell you who to bet this weekend, just something to chew on. Good luck.
I know what your thinking, I wish another douche would start a thread to clutter up the board with his stupid picks. Well, here I am. I posted two of these plays with long write-ups already when the lines first came out. Here they are with a slimmed down analysis, along with the rest on my shots in the dark. Good luck all.
Friday
Tulsa -13.5 (W)
Saturday
Texas -41.5 (Best Bet)
Monroe has six new assistant coaches, a new offensive system (hurry-up, no huddle) and a new starting quarterback. Their defense ranked 109th in the country last year, allowing 444 yards per game. They are playing Texas, one of the three or four most talented teams in the country who missed out on the BCS Title game by a few computer points last year. If they can cover this spread with all that going against them, I'll pay out. Good luck.
Ohio State/Navy Over 44.5
I played this one as soon as the line came out, as I believe Navy will have one of the five or ten worst defenses in the nation this year. I think OSU gets 38 on the low end, which means if Navy can find the end zone once, it's a winner. I believe Dobbs is going to be one of the better option quarterbacks we've seen. He is a great decision maker and a good passer for an option quarterback. But this bet is based mainly on Navy's defense. It's really, really small and slow and I think Pryor is going to have a coming out party against it.
Toledo +11
Tremendous value in this number I think. Toledo has an experienced quarterback in Opelt, an NFL-caliber receiver in Williams and a strong ground game. Their defense is trash but I'm not sure Purdue is strong enough on offense to really take advantage of it. The other thing I like is that the Rockets have a veteran offensive line that should be able to control the football against a suspect Purdue defensive front. I just see this being a tight game between two mediocre teams.
SMU -19 (Bonus Best Bet)
If you can bet I-AA games, I strongly advise taking the Mustangs for a couple of reasons. First off, Stephen F. Austin is like a poor man's SMU. They run a similar kind of system, yet they went 4-8 in I-AA. So they are basically the perfect opponent for the Mustangs. They were pretty much hand picked. Also, I spoke to June Jones this week and he sounded like he was going to unleash the hounds on the Lumberjacks and show no mercy. After winning just one game last year, he wants to get off on the right foot in 2009. My guess? The Ponies score at least 70 tomorrow. It sounds nuts because SMU was so horrid last year but this may be the easiest bet on the board. It's the play I have the most money on if you can believe it. This is my addition to the board. I'm an SMU fan and I have studied this game. I'm advising to pound my shitty team tomorrow.
Good luck everyone and enjoy the first full day of games.
I just wanted to wish everyone here at Covers good luck this college football season. I have learned a lot over the last couple of months coming to the board and taking everything in. Whether I have agreed or disagreed with you, I have listened and become a better handicapper by digesting the information you all have to offer. Good luck and let's all have a profitable season.
I am not going to pull the trigger on anything tonight. I am going to sit back with a big freaking pizza and enjoy the games. I will, however, be playing my first game tomorrow night:
Tulsa -13.5
I originally liked Tulane in this game but as I mentioned in another post, I got a job covering C-USA a couple months ago. Thank God I did because I had no idea just what kind of powerhouse Todd Graham is building at Tulsa until I saw it first-hand.
I was able to catch a few days of practice and this looks like an SEC team with the talent he is accumulating there. Just speed and athleticism all over the place. Graham is stealing away top recruits from some of the top schools in the country and it's showing up on the field with the kind of players Tulsa has on its two-deep.
We talk about losing a player like Tarrion Adams but in all honesty, Tulsa has four backs just as talented ready to take over including freshman Alex Singleton, who backed out of a verbal commitment with LSU to come to Tulsa.
G.J. Kinne will be the starting quarterback and he's a transfer from Texas. He's a perfect fit for this system. Kinne is accurate, mobile and he has an amazing group of receivers to throw the ball to, led by the tandem of Johnson and Johnson.
Overall, the Golden Hurricane go six deep at receiver and that's going to give the undermanned Tulane defense fits. The Green Wave will be without one of their best defensive linemen, Reggie Scott, who is serving a suspension for this game
When you talk to Graham, he can't go five minutes without mentioning defense. He knows this program can't take the next step unless he builds up the defense. He still needs to recruit some more players along the line but Tulsa does have athletes in its back seven.
I really think this program is on its way to being the next Utah/Boise State, where they make noise every single season, regardless of who they lose to graduation. It's the system and trust me, Tulsa has players to reload.
David Johnson and Adams where both good players but I have talked to returning players and coaches at Tulsa and no one is losing a second's sleep over them leaving the program.
I think Tulsa blasts Tulane on National TV. They just have too much speed, too many athletes and too much talent for the Green Wave to handle. Good luck.
Official Card
Texas -41.5 (Best Bet)
Ohio State/Navy over 44.5
Tulsa -13.5