i was looking at this game for the past 24 hours. After detroit blowing that 25 pt lead against the pacers at home, and knowing drummond was out, and knowing the nba. i was liking detroit to pull of the upset. i was able to lock in a bet on them last night +7@ +103. i just had a feeling that someone would be out on denver side dropping the line.
and it indeed came true. its now currently at denver -6@-106.
you see, this is a good spot to back a bad team. wait, i got that wrong. This is a good spot to fade a better team at home.
denver was off a 5 game roadie. it was a good spot to back them last time around against the streaking clippers. first because denver are the best team coming from a long roadie, going 18-5 in that stretch. and second, western teams as a dog coming off that said roadie is a decent 33-17 ATS.
however, it becomes worse on the second game, the second game at home as favs brings it down to a lowly 27-44 ATS. that is a big discrepancy. initially laying 7 at home is too much. advantage detroit.
and lets talk about letdown spot. last year, in the same exact situation, after denver ending the 17 game win streak of the clippers, they were 8 pt favorites at home against minnesota. they lost that game SU.
but injuries to chandler and lawson being probable just had to mess it up. im thinking of buying out of my bet now. well hey, any profit is good profit any day of the week.
just a heads up guys.
this is a play that i will live by even if it loses.
clips had a successful 7 game roadie. going 5-2 ATS. they are really playing well recently. blowing teams out that they should blow out. golden state on the other hand has been bad at home this season. line opened at 5, now at 6.5.
the clippers are now back on the road after that home game yesterday against the wizards. they wouldve covered that game as well if it werent for some bs shot at the last second. the same wizards that they beat yesterday were off a win against guess who, the golden state warriors. wizards beat warriors, clippers beat wizards, so clippers should beat warriors right? NO! this is the 3rd in 4th for the clippers, it is safe to say that this is not the best scheduling spot for them.
the clippers have been playing out of their minds even without cp3, griffin as i hate to admit it, is good. he makes those trick shots that leaves me in awe. they are the better team here, but them getting 5 points, i dont think so. and the line has rose to 6.5 even if the public are on them.
the last game the dubs have covered, it was also against a good team in portland, the were laying the same number of points. public were also on them, again because they were the hotter team. we all know how that turned out.
revenge is also not out of the question here, we all know that infamous brawl incident last time after the game, bad blood is between these two teams. ill give the edge to the home team with the fans supporting them.
i dont usually play tnt thursdays, more alone a favorite. but i just see a definite advantage here. thats what sportsbetting is about, you dont go for those 50-50 plays. if thats the case, youre better off flipping a coin instead.
gsw -7 @ -105
the grizzlies have dominated the season series. winning by 19 at home as 2.5 favorites. then win by 8 at phoenix were they were 5 point dogs.
bad news for the suns as they just learned that bledsoe's knee needs operation and is out indefinitely.
memphis come into this game with a 4 game ats win streak. where they made the spurs a game in which was pretty much decided in the last minute.
public is all over the grizz to matchup well with the suns and continue to dominate them. a team on a short line at home will always garner some action.
i know that the suns are the best ATS team in the league. call me a sucker but im biting on them to pull off the upset. i know that they will regress at some point this season, but i think they get it tomorrow. a team cannot sustain a 70+% ATS win streak for the whole season, they just cant.
lets face it, everyone was surprised that the suns are actually ballin this season. also tony allen is out for the grizz which is big. im going with the road dog here.
phx 106 mem 99