Playing some at my local track: Pinnacle is a very chaulky track, but the feature, Race 8: The Michigan Breeder's Cup Handicap has some decent prices so I'm playing a double.
Pinnacle 7:
Double: 3 / 1-2-3-4-7
Race 7: 3 - Buscando Fortuna: trained by Gorham who clicking on at a meager 26%. Also high percentage jock in Delgado. With a step down in class and no respect with the weight. He runs away with this race
Race 8: As I said is wide open, but I'm looking to beat the favorite here Meadow Vespers who already has a stakes win at Pnl this summer. I can't see the 6 or 7 firing so I'll leave them out.
9-Brass Hat WPS
Going with the 9- Brass hat with Borel in the saddle. Seems to like this distance with a good ROI in Graded Stakes and should go off at pretty nice price
A beautiful day for racing in the windy city...Here are the contenders:
1- Einstein is coming into this Millions just as he did last year, off solid performances against competitive company, but I think he gets the same result…Out of the money
2- Presious Passion has a mission: to get to the lead and stay there. The no question front-runner and hasn’t finished worse than 2nd this year. Couldn’t ask for a better post position either.
3- Just as well is looking to go 2 for 2 this summer at AP. Coming out of the handicap in mid-July. He could be there with another late move
4 – Stotsfold is from the other side of the pond, which makes him dangerous since the Euros owned last years race. The post position should bode well for his late running style, but I think he falls short.
5- Mr. Sidney will win this race…if it were run at 1m. It doesn’t look like he likes the added distance being anything more then that. Seems to excel when the turf is less than favorable, so I’ll keep that in mind.
6- Gio Ponti will probably be the betting favorite and should be. His only defeat this year was off the turf at SA in Feb. If he doesn’t run into trouble, he will be there at the end.
7- Gloria De Campeao doesn’t add lasix today, but knows how to win, as evidenced by these earnings. Ran a clear 2nd to Well Armed in the Dubai WC and got it done at a price on the lawn in Singapore before coming to N. America
8- Cima De Triomphe got the upper hand on Stotsfold this spring before their trip to the states. This would be the European horse that I fear the most. Closing style just needs a good trip to get it done.
9- Recapturetheglory would be a big upset today. Looked solid in graded stakes in 2008, but hasn’t gotten on track yet this year. Could be ready to break in the Midwest today.
Arlington Millions:
Going with 2- Presious Passion today: WPS
Exactas: 2/All + All/2 = $16
Trifecta: Keying 2- PP with 8- Cima De Triomphe
2-8 / 2-8 / 1-3-6-7-9 = $10
2-8 / 1-3-6-7-9 / 2-8 = $10
1-3-6-7-9 / 2-8 / 2-8 = $10
Race 4: #6- Diggers Rest is a live long-shot at 20-1 early line. - Being ridden by Ouzts Probably just a Place / Show wager, but the Win wwould pay nicely
Race 6: BEST BET for the day: #4-Star Crest to WPS. adding an Exacta: 4 with All and All with 4
Race 8: #1- Eagle Won will probably be a co-favorite with the 4, but has a better shot from the inside. WP
Race 10: #3- Star Commander ran last summer up here at Pinnacle. I saw him run and he's rock solid. Will probably be the betting favorite, but should get a clean run. WPS and an Exacta: 4 with All and All with 4
1) Hyperbaric (KY ) - Not a good showing in the Dubai Duty Free, but if you throw that one out he wired the Citation Handicap at Hollywood back in Nov. and won the previous 3 before that. Looks to bounce back after returning to the states
2) Whatsthescript (IRE) - After a good showing in the BC Mile last year he didn’t live up to expectation as the favorite in the Citation Handicap and finished out of the money. I like the fact that he is a beaten favorite and could improve, but Go Go didn’t think so as he is riding current morning line favorite 4-Ventura. Also hasn’t raced in 6 months. He has fallen a long was from this high Bayers from last summer
3) Storm Military (ARG) - This horse tangled with the 7-US Ranger earlier this year and won that match-up at the longer price. May have won the race if it had been run at today’s distance. Taking a step-up in class and downing 124 lbs. for the first time in his career. Would be useful on the bottom of exotic wagers.
4) Ventura (KY ) - Always a lady…Going up against the guys today hoping to not be disappointed as has happened the last two outings being “oh, so close”. The guys are spotting her 5 lbs and with Gomez on board we have the making of another W on the form. Not going to touch this horse unless I can at least get even money.
5) Dixie Chatter (KY ) - Has enjoyed the spring in Southern California (and who wouldn’t !?!?). Finished 3rd. behind the lady of this race and really has no excuse as he was given 3 lbs. Could be a solid pick as a Show wager if you could get 10-1, which could be possible as many will be on the favorite.
Anybody have numbers on the outcome of games after a team pulls the goalie to add an extra attacker in the last minutes of regulation.
3 outcomes:
Score unchanged: Probably the outcome of most of these games?
Winning team scores: Odds?
Losing team scores: Odds?
Any body have a website or solid stats for this type of situation?