Who would ever watch a Brown's/Jag's game? "I think Vegas is trying to tell us something with this line..." Now you know...
I still hear the shouts RG3! RG3! RG3! ringing in my ears...
Week 1 perceptions: 1. America's team is back! The Cowboys won't blow
any leads THIS year. Romo is the man! Look at them handle the SuperBowl
champs on opening night! 2. Vick sucks! 4 picks! whaaaaaa. Barely beat
the lowly Browns? 3. Ravens are worldbeaters. Flacco really is an elite
QB! Look at that new offense work. 4. RG3, enough said. 5. Saints are
garbage. Bountygate really got to them. 6. Buffalo sucks. Yes. Well this
one is actually true, kind of...I will say that it is very likely
Fitzpatrick is the worst starting QB in the NFL, possibly right next to
Blaine Gabbert. Still scratching my head as to what JAX saw in him. They
are JAX though. They are as well run as the Bills. If nothing else,
Fitz definitely has the league's worst contract.
Week 2 Plays/Leans:
1. Cowboys @ Seachickens +3 = Take the points! The chickens of the sea
(Romo, that Jessica Simpson joke was for you) are a solid home dog! Good
defense, a rookie QB with promise, and Marshawn Beast Mode is back for
action. More of a fade of Dallas here. Coming in to a harsh Sea-people
stadium for their 2nd road game in a row after that great win to start
the season, look for the Cowgirls to show up flat.
2. Ravens @
Iggles -1 = Line came out at -2.5 at most books and people pounded the
Ravens +2.5 nonstop. Taking it at -135 juice....WOWZERS. I will say a
couple things for this game. The Eagles are not nearly as bad as what
they looked like against the Browns. AND the Ravens are not nearly as
good as they looked against Cincy. Andy Reid will make a gameplan
adjustment this week and pound Shady McCoy and give Vick some
short-intermediate routes to get his confidence back. He was playing
Hero Ball last week (stole that from Herm Edwards today). Never a great idea to back a team who just played
their BEST game. However, a team who just played their WORST? I like the
Eagles at home in this spot. By the way, Baltimore is not a great road
team. Last year lost on the road to JAX, Seattle, and barely escaped
3. RG3Skins @ Rams +3 (-105 at my book) =
RG3 looked good yes. But this was against a Saints swiss cheese D going
through a shitstorm of offseason issues. Rams are MUCH improved and will
only get better throughout the year. Jeff Fisher has them in good form.
Rams are lacking in offensive weapons severely. Stephen Jackson is a
beast, but he's only one man, but I think the Rams get the cover here.
Skins playing in 2nd road contest in a row and coming in flying high off
Saints win. The betting public is all over the Skins and yet the line
has remained at 3. That tells me the smart money is on the home dog.
Before RG3's performance last week this game would've been a pickem.
4. Denver Peyton's @ HOTLANTA -3 = The Peyton led horses were
impressive in Week 1. This was against an old and beat up Pitt squad on
the road missing key players in key positions. It won't be that easy
against the Dirty Birds. If Denver had lost that game the line would be
Falcons -6 or 7. I think Jermaine Dupree will be releasing "Welcome to
Atlanta Re-Re-Re-Mix" after this one. Matty Ice Ryan singin' let da
5. Not sure either Saints -2.5 @ Panthers or KC @
The Buffalo FitzHapless -3.5....Not sure if I trust the Saints yet, I
still think they are a 8-8 or 7-9 type team with all the issues, but
they should take care of Carolina. Their D is very suspect though and
Cam could have a field day. As for the Bills I'm going to play against
the fact that they are getting so much hate from last week and think
they come home focused and turn it around. Ralph Wilson just farted.. .
Anybody else thinking about taking this bet? I backed the KC ML last night, but no way in hell I could say they looked good. Miami on the other hand DID look good last week vs the G Men. QB Matt Moore was actually quite effective and very accurate against a tough Giant pass rush. He even completed a few nice tosses downfield. Plus I liked the way Miami sprinkled Reggie Bush in for a change up run game here and there. No moneyline posted on my book yet, but ill be hitting that as soon as possible. I think the fish get their first win against KC this sunday.
Got KC +3 for 5 Units on MNF, my big bet for Week 8...looking good so far.
Week 9 Picks:
Cinci +3 @ Tenn for 5 Units, big bet for the week. I'm not sure how much I'm liking it anymore though. Pray for the best I guess. I just don't think Tenn is much of a team, and I do believe in Cinci. We'll see...
6 Point Teaser:
SF +2.5 @ Wash, SF Under 43.5, Dallas -6 @ home - 2.5 Units
10 Point Teaser:
Houston -.5 @ home, Jets +11.5 @ Bills, SF +6.5 @ Wash - 2.5 Units
I know some people say teasers are sucker bets, but I've had success with them, although overall I am a losing bettor so far. I haven't been tracking my progress since I started betting a year ago, but it starts this week. Also put some money on NCAAF. USC -21.5 @ Colorado. Definitely liking that. Please let me know what you guys think about these plays.