19-8 on Terp plays this season

Terps got through a tough part of their schedule with some adventure but with a handful of wins which is all that matters.  They have been playing from behind more of late which is bothersome on one hand, but then coming back on fire to win games which is a big positive.  Terps can lock up 2nd in the ACC with a win today and are trying to keep pace with Dook for the regular season title.  That's a longshot as they would have to win out and get a little help too but it's worth mentioning.

This afternoon, the Terps travel to VaTech.  Line is VaTech -1 and 142.5.  I have to say right off the top that this is the most difficult line I have seen on a Terp game all season.  It's very fishy in my opinion.  It begs for VaTech money since they are playing at home, Terps have had no succes winning at the Cassell, Terps are the better TEAM (though VaTech has some very good players) and the fact that VaTech really needs this game.  VaTech needs this game becuase though they are 21-6 overall and tied for 3rd in the ACC, they have played one of the softer schedules in the conference (in the ACC and OOC).  Going to 8-6 in the ACC with a loss and still having to go to GaTech says they could end up 9-7 which puts them squarelly on the bubble with a Terp and GaTech loss.On the other hand, the Terps are playing for seeding now and should come in loose which is when some teams play their best.

The Terps should actually have a rebounding advantage today since in ACC play, VaTech is the worst rebounding team statistically and the Terps, while not having great rebounding stats, have played some VERY strong rebounding teams in ACC play this year so I feel the stats are a little skewed.  They could be alot better on the baords if that head case Jeff Allen was not SO fucking lazy but the only solid rebounder they have is Bell.  Jordan Wiiliams should be able to control the inside a bit more today compared to what we went against in Ed Davis, GT's NBA frontline, Dooks heigth and Booker.

If VT is not going to control the boards, that is a problem for them.  It's a problem because they are the worst FG% team in the ACC so do the math....if you aren't a great shooting team AND you aren't great at grabbing rebounds....uhhhh you better hope you are hot as shit from the field.  VT scores a ridiculoulsly large percentage of their points form the FT line.  More specifically, their stud Delaney has gone to the line 137 times in ACC play!  137 times and hit 85% of those!!!!!  To put that in context, the next closest players have gone to the charity stripe 60-65 times.  Very strange if you ask me but he is quick and does well penetrating.  If he ONLY gets to the FT line 9 times or less today, it hurts them alot.  They do shoot well there as a team by the way.

Terps play the best defense percentage wise in the league.   I am not saying they play the best defense because they don't.  But the stats do point to a tough shooting game for VT when you add in the fact that they don't shoot well anyway.  In the backcourt, VT should hold their own.  Obviously any foul trouble with Delaney would be catastrophic as they are not terribly deep, just good as far as the starters go.  Hudson is a solid guard for them too but turns the ball over a fair amount.(1:1 assist to turnover ratio).

VT is 14-0 at home; VT has also lost to BC twice, UNC and Miami....these teams are just not good.  Their soft schedule, playing at home or not makes they suspect.  I wonder if the refs will be more instructed to "help" get 7 ACC teams into the Dance.  Watch the fouls to get your answer.  Early foul trouble for a couple of Terps could be a sign as would a lopsided foul count.  If this were on a neutral court or at Comcast, I'd say this is an easier one than GT, Clemson and at NCSU for sure but since it's on the road it has intrigue.  The Terps have played lower scoring, much lower scoring games on the road this year, coupled with the VT shooting so I like the UNDER.  I also like the Terps to control the inside, the boards and they have a deeper bench.  In fact, only six VT players see the majority of their minutes, compared to 8-10 with most "deep" teams.  Late in the season, this could spell big time fatigue.  This line is begging for VT money...Terps can't win there, VT has backs against the wall, VT lost bad at BC, Terps have been falling behind in games the last three, the crowd.....blah blah blah.

I am going to play the better team here and hope for the best.  If all esle fails, play the better team.  Terps +1.

Play Terps +1 and the UNDER 142.5.

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25-20-1 YTD after a profitable Saturday

Sunday Plays:

NCSU + 9.5 and over 138.5

FSU over 134

RI over 149

Bradley +8

Fla Intl +15.5

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