I decided to post Sundays picks early so that I could celebrate tonight and not worry about oversleeping tomorrow's noon games.
Down to business:
3.99 Unit Play.... Cincinnati w/Volquez at -133
The first game that stands out to me while staring at the newly released spreads is the game between Cincinnati and the NYM. We have Volquez listed at -133 vs the Mets' Pelfrey. I watched Volquez during the all-star game give up the game-tying HR to JD Drew (much to my delight, action on AL), but watching the replay on the pitch that gave up the HR showed me Drew had gotten a lucky swing/guess/break. Volquez's fastball moves a good 6 inches left to right at 96 plus and he had just frozen up the previous batter with a K on the same pitch.
I feel Volquez will be motivated for letting down his league and will be stellar on his first start back. Also, I laid off NYM yesterday because I was wary of the "what goes up, must come down" trend. NYM had 10 straight wins and then just fell apart 7-2 on their 11th effort. I look for the Mets to get back to their disappointing ways and laying the chalk with Volquez.
1.35 Unit Play..........CHC w/Dempster at -135
The Cubs were in on the take last night and I cashed (Big Z w/ walks, Theriot's baserunning) and the Cubs will be focused on not getting swept and I will be here to cash as well. Backe had a good last start but that was a good week or so ago. I am an Astros follower and I am pretty certain Backe will come out with false confidence and give away O/U 4 runs in the first three innings tomorrow.
5 Unit MAX Play.............MIL w/Parra +115
Didn't Lincecum just miss the all-star game at Yankee stadium with dehydration just a couple days ago? Damn these linemakers are harsh on the young ace. You can question the seriousness of his hospital visit all you want but its evident when a young MLB player passes on the last all-star game at Yankee Stadium (and he wasn't planning on pitching either). This MFer barely got out of the hospital and they have him as the favorite against a team that is better than the SF Giants at most all offensive categories and also happens to be in a PLAYOFF OR BUST mode. Milwaukee is as money in the bank as Lincecum was just in the hospital.
GLTA
Updated as of 7/19/08:
3-0 ML +9.55 UNITS
0-0 RL
0-1 ALTERNATE RUN LINE -1 UNIT
2-0 O/U +3 Units
5-1 for +11.55 Units
2 Unit Play- LAA w/ Saunders +110
The Angels are hot at home and they are bringing in Al "The BoSox Assassin" Saunders after initially writing in Garland as the starter. This strategic substitution will hopefully pay off as LAA is up against a jetlagged Beckett and Boston in front of a hostile home crowd.
5 Unit MAX PLAY- HOU w/ WANDY ROD +107
When the value is like this... on a Cubs Zambrano game nonetheless, you'd have to be nervous to go with the first place Cubs no matter how much common sense urges you to. When the line inches toward being a pick'em then you unleash your units on the fantastic and super phallic name of WAND ROD, who although a dud on the road but a stud in his home park.
1 Unit Play- Over 7.5 TB/TOR
This is a play just based on 7.5 being a considerably low number when these two teams meet. 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone over this number and I would have to believe Tampa's players who feel All-Star snubbed will have something to prove against this All Star pitcher. I would place a play on Tampa, but it is Roy Halladay. Ha, I know that is contrary to the over pick but Tampa's speed is what sells this one unit play.
Still new to the site but gotta be audacious wit' it.
1-0 ML +2 UNITS
0-0 RL
0-1 ALTERNATE RUN LINE -1 UNIT
0-0 O/U