Since everyone has basically picked who they want to play in the FL st game, I figured I would concentrate on this game. I am well aware that UL's QB is out and I'm sure someone will make a case for them even though he is out. But here's why I'm playing ST because Kolton Browning is out.
With him, they are a very efficient offense. He was completing about 62% of his passes and their third down conversion was about 48% which put them at 18th in the nation. However, since he is out, his backup is completing 56% of his passes. I'm sure part of this comes from not having the timing and such. But that is not going to drastically change in one week. This in-accuracy will effectively disrupt offensive flow and the number of third downs they convert.
UL has a decent defense only giving up 3.7 yards per rush and roughly 110 ypg on the road. Not too shabby at all. The problem is ST will air the ball out (which is UL's weekness) and this will result in defensive linemen getting washed and linebackers reading pass first and slow to the hole.
Both teams average about 5.5 penalties per game but I believe that UL on the road and with a second string QB will ultimately end up committing more penalties, especially on offense which will be drive killers.
Statistically speaking Arkansas St has an advantage in very important areas. Couple that with Browning being out, I believe this translates into ST winning and covering, fairly easily, 14+
This will end up being a fairly large play for me.
Just my .02 take it or leave it
I"m slightly new to this site but I am becoming more and more amazed by the sheer stupidity of people on here. You have individuals who are posting their thoughts, leans, picks, and insight on here for all to see. It's a gift and a tool. Yet some on here decide to use it as pure doctrine. And when things don't go exactly as they read they get mad and start talking mad shit. Seriously, make your own choices and quit hatin. To all you shit talkers out there, sack up and grow a pair of nuts and make your own damn picks!! If you had half the knowledge and wisdom the rest of us did, you wouldn't lose so damn much money and have to rely on other people to make your picks for you.
Sorry for the rant all. It's just getting ridiculous how much hate is flying from bums who can't make their own decisions