First time posting NFL here at Covers. Lurked for a while and like to follow some in the NCAAF forums (jdn, wahoos, etc). I post on another forum, but not much discussion over there. Love this place if not for the obnoxious haters. people are funny.
Obviously won't count my first quarter's record, but here it is anyway:
Last Week: 4-3-1
Nice week last week, but have yet to put back-to-back good weeks in NFL. Spinning my wheels in college (yesterday started 1-6, then to 6-6, then 3-2 to end the day, winning .4 units). Would be nice to hit my stride.
Here's who I like early games:
Tennessee +2.5 vs Kansas City: Think Chris Johnson does well here and the linesmakers are giving Ryan Fitzpatrick some respect, so I'll side with him. Almost 80 percent of the public are on the Chiefs here. I think Tennessee has an underrated defense that will step up and support their offense today.
Miami -2.5 vs Baltimore: public on Baltimore to the tune of 70 percent today. I don't understand this. Sounds like Balty cut Stokely (prob because J. Jones is back). Miami needs the running game to work to have a chance, but I think we might see some great PA pass to Wallace here. You know he's a breakout candidate from week to week. I like Miami, and even more if Cameron Wake plays (currently questionable).
Indianapolis +2 vs Seattle: I believe Seattle is the only 5-0 ATS team in the league, but this line questions me. This is definitely not a fade-the-public bet as the sides are pretty much even, but the line hasn't moved from 3 (local book gave 2) in most places. I might be caught here by a point but this looks really close from 2. Might cut this one because of the bad line, but we'll see.
New Orleans -1 at Chicago: I'm siding with the public here. I just see that same magic the Saints had in their Superbowl run a couple of years ago. Brees + Sean Payton = greatness. Chicago is gritty, has a sick defense, but I think here the running game or short passing game with Sproles (and Robinson, Thomas, whomever) will be the difference maker.
STL/JAX: can you back Sam Bradford + Zac Stacy laying DD even against the worst team in the league? I think a small play on the Jax ML here is worth it. Maybe Blackmon energizes them?
CIN/NE: Cannot wait to watch the game since my Vikes are off. Love this one.
GB/DET: Everything points to GB covering here with Lacy back. Detroit hasn't won (ever?) in GB in ages? I think they might be 0-fer in Green Bay, but would have to look that up. Detroit went into Washington where they were 0-fer and won, can they do it this year? GB looks vulnerable and Detroit looks like a different team with Bush at RB.
PHI/NYG: Normally I'd be on the Giants here, but they are bad and I just cannot back them. That being said, this will be a hugely physical game. Giants just picked up Jon Beason to help upgrade that bad LB corps. We'll see if he's effective this week.
CAR/ARI: Want to back Cam on the road? Nope. Confidence in ARI? Nope.
OAK/SD: Weird line here with SD looking good at offense. SD being beat heavy on ML and total going over. I think this will be a fun game to watch actually, but likely a no-play unless early games go bad for me.
DAL/DEN: I don't know what to think here. Like Denver, but who doesn't?
SF/HOU: I have SF -7 on a local line and wouldn't bet it through him, but I really like the Niners here. Houston getting bet heavy by public and SF in spotlight with Schaub being Schaub... :)