prolly should not have made it at all
this is always is why i write from my mom's basement
As always keep the points Ill take the ML
As always my pick is based on guard play and situation.
Make no mistake, Lville is a final four team. I am not betting against Lville because of a lack of talent.
L'ville has a giant case of the darn arounds right now. I've caught a couple of their games on replay and this is a bored bunch. To me, thats what happens when you have a couple college level prodigies toiling in obscurity. Noone's watching and they're good enough to screw around and win.
Now, they have to bring it up to Uconn who has been playing with something to prove. Uconn has great guards. They play efficient basketball and don't force the issue and put their less than stellar teammates in great positions to make contributions.
L'ville guards play exactly the opposite. They don't play particularly efficient. They are relentless. They just leave scraps for their teammates when they cant get anything going for themselves. They easily run circles around most combos on offensive end and render them nuetral on the defensive end. Tonight they have met their match. 2 guys who equal them in talent but play much smarter.
As always gimme the ML.
1st clue is the line. Books could probably get 50/50 action on 3.
2nd.I rate the point guard matchup at even. I usually like to take the better guards. Here I am getting a home favorite with an even matchup at the key position. The hidden difference is in foul calls. Dillard doesn't foul and lives at the foul line. I will take that at home each and every time.
Butler is more talented. Thats not in question. Just dont think it will be their day.
This is all about Miami. They struggle against big guys who defend the rim without fouling.
Portland has noone who fits that description.
Miami has lost 4 of last 10. 3 of those losses came on the 3 lowest totals of the stretch. Each was under 190. The 4th loss came on a back to back against Milwaukee.
The total tonight is 194. Portland may be on the rise but they are not ready to handle the 3 olympians coming off an embarassing loss.
Avoid overthinking this one.