YTD: 5 - 9 - 1 (-16.84 units)
Not the start I wanted on the season, so I took a few days off to get an assessment of a few teams. Here goes tonight card.
NEW JERSEY +12½-110 (buying 3 for -170)
I cannot ignore the probability of a cover here at over 15 points...it is a risk/reward that I am willing to take, and tonight I'm going to pound it. Stepping out there a bit, wish me luck on this one (75% probable this will hit at 15.5 point)s10u
NEW ORLEANS -5-110 (buying 3 for -2) (70% probable) 5u
This is based on probability, and I think that NO will easily win the steals/TO battle...this will be key in this match-up.
TOTAL o202-110 (CLEVELAND vrs NEW YORK)5u
No offense last night will lead to a dominant performance tonight against the leagues worst defense...New York hangs enough to get this over the total.
TOTAL o217-110 (LA CLIPPERS vrs GOLDEN STATE) 5u
Run and gun...no more to say, gotta love Don Nelson's open play.
Yesterday (1-3)
YTD (4-7-1) - 13.8 units
SA -2.5 2U
Denver + 8 1U
Here are my probabilities of a cover for for all the games tonight. Going to stick with this all year....anything 55% and up will merit a single unit play. Anything that hits over a 60% probability will be a 2 unit play. 65% and up will be considered a top play at 5 units a play. If any of you use V1 or V2, or ABC methods (something that I am just now learning) and it coincides with these probability selections...let me know, could be a GOY-like play. BOL everyone
I am having some very hard time to find some value in today's games. Thus far I have HEAVY leans on Texas Tech, Oregon, Ohio St., and Penn St.....but no plays yet. You thoughts?
Penn State hasn't
won at Michigan since 1996, but ended a 9-game losing streak in this
series last year with its' win at State College. The Nittany Lions and
Wolverines are ranked 1-2 in the conference in total offense. The
difference is in total defense where Penn State ranks 1st and Michigan
ranks 7th.
Here's where the
attempt to apply the transitive property of equality to college
football scores goes terribly awry - Texas A&M lost to Kansas State
by 48 while Texas Tech beat Kansas State by 52 - therefore, Texas Tech
should win by 100. Heck, I'm only asking for a quarter of that.
No one in the
country has been on the kind of roll that Oregon has been on with 4
straight wins by at least 7 points, and 2 of those by 39 points or
more. Oregon ranks 15th nationally in total defense while Washington
ranks 106th. The Ducks have won the last 5 meetings by 19 or more
points.