Match Day 3 Nov 12 +220
CONMEBOL WCQ Running Total -730
link to Match day 3: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=36&sub=102191290
Ecuador PK -120 300/250
Tie +210 100/210
Let's see what they can do on the road this match game - the line scares me, a little low. I know, I always say "CONMEBOL plays CONMEBOL tough" and it is true....
Ecuador will probably soon be a favourite every Quito match and will be a real tough battle every match in the qualifiers - only taking them for 2.5 units because this line looks too good to be true.
If Valencia was playing this would be a 5 unit play.
I have this match as ECU 39% Tie 43% Uru 20% - I 'll lay a little wood -120 on the PK with > 80% chance of 0 downside.
Colombia PK -150 450/300
Colombia TIE +215 50/107
Over 2 Goals EV 200/200
I am not impressed with Brazil and have not been for about 3 years - Argentina tied Brazil after going up, I was hoping Argentina clobbered Brazil in order to get Colombia today @ +½ +120 or something like that but a tie is better than Argentina getting spanked at home as this line would then be Colombia -1 +120 or -½ -160
Taking Colombia today not because I am a fan (I bet against them Match day 1) but because I can seriously be an objective gambler not emotional and I see some value in the line.
2nd half last week in Chile Colombia showed some great moves, good counter and solid D. Today we should get Cuadrado back and Argentina is still without everybody and now Mascherano is out of midfield with an injury. My only issue is Jackson Martinez who was stellar last week and should always be starting every match - I have said this many times in the past, made some serious $ with him when he was on Porto. Colombia is a little crippled on D with Arias and Sanchez out, yellow cards. But I think that is reflected in the line and also why I am taking the over today.
I quote myself from last week's thread post #9, Colombia/Chile Match: "I just don't want Colombia to start coming out a powerhouse and me missing them as an early dog."
We're getting good value in Barranquilla and I have a big bankroll and am not afraid to lay wood here. Line is over inflated, this is CONMEBOL, yes, but Argentina is not the Argentina of old and neither is this Colombia. Matter of fact this isn’t even the Colombia from match day 2.
I have this match @ Colombia 39% Tie 33% Argentina 28% ... so for 3 units -150 I'll take my chances on +$ or push/no wager at 72%.
Taking the Tie on the 3-WAY for a little insurance....
Peru +1.5 EV 100/100
I am not impressed with Brazil and have not been for about 3 years. Line is over inflated, this is CONMEBOL and any team can play any team really tough.
Just taking the points and let me just say, I am not impressed with Brazil.
Chile PK +125 200/250
Match in Uruguay, Cavani looked great last week but I have to say this line is low, we are getting value here because Vidal, Vargas and Sanchez were so contained last week by Los Cafeteros, a testament to Colombia's defense. Also fresh in everyone’s mind is Uruguay's 6 to 2 on GF/GA and two wins including 3-0 against Colombia.
But Chile is the slightly stronger team, on the road yes, but Uruguay does not have the firepower without Suarez.
I have this match @ Chile 35% Tie 40% Uru 25% ... so for 2 units @ PK +125 I'll a shot on cashing a ticket or push/no wager at 75%.
0-0 or Chile 1-0
Match Day 3
Money = -$950 (ouch!)
link to Match day 2:
Venezuela +½ EVEN 200/200
Bolivia is that bad, regardless of home stadium in the stratosphere....
Ecuador -½ -EVEN 300/300
Under 2 EVEN 200/200
Ecuador always plays well in the qualifiers and has qualified for 3 of the last 4 World Cups. Their tight style and cohesive play gives a lot of fits to opposing CONMEBOL teams.
Unfortunately Ecuador will be without Valencia and Uruguay will be missing Jose Maria Gimenez but will call on Cavani, good for them.
If Enner Valencia was playing this would be a 5 unit play
Colombia +½ +120 100/120
Under 2½ -140 280/200
James is back, not 100% will probably get called up and play for Teo in the 65th minute more or less. I like this match to tie 0-0 but will take Colombia on the spread just in case - one bad match does not mean Colombia is done.
Although we don't know the line ups yet I think Bacca and Teo will have a few good shots on goal and if James comes in late he may be able to stick one like he did Saturday night against Sevilla.
Can Colombia's defense on the road contain Vidal and Sanchez? I'm counting on it.
Argentina 3-way +150 200/300
This match smells like a tie but Brazil still does not impress me much after getting far in WC2014 thanks to the refs, and Argentina will not lose two in a row at home.
Match Day 1
BOLIVIA PK -115 -$115/$100
Bolivia is a tough in La Paz, Uruguay struggles there and are missing Cavani and Suarez.
PERU +1 +120 -$50/$60
Will Jackson Martinez step up after the bruised tibia? Teo? Bacca? James out : But despite all that a great line up:
Ospina; Arias, Balanta, Murillo, Zapata; Sánchez, Guarín; Cuadrado, Martínez, Bacca; Gutierrez.
Colombia does no win by more than 1 goal today.
PERU/COLOMBIA UNDER 2.5 -150 $300/$200
Big bet of the day - I see this game 0-0 or 1-0 in favor of Colombia.
This will not be a scorefest even if Falcao and James were healthy and playing.
PERU/COLOMBIA 3-way Draw/Empate +325 $50/$162
More to come....
Pitchers have about 5 stars under their belts, coming into form, managers are working out bull penn issues and batters are batters, hot and cold.
What does all this mean? This is the first adjustment time. Happens in NBA and NFL as well.
Vegas lines are getting sharper. This is when accomplished MLB players with good money management and a solid bankroll perservere and the squares get booted out - returning again in a bit only to get booted out during other adjustments coming in the season.
My advice is to cut back, pick your spots wisely and take it all in. Don't chase, don't play with scared money and most importantly make sure your system that worked last month is going to work today.
Although pitchers are always what determines the lines, teams are playing more like teams now and more of the whole team needs to be taken into consideration - meaning a hot team scoring 6-9 runs a game only needs an average outting from their pitching staff, starting pitcher included. There is motivation and momentum and stuff in their heads that don't ever get to the stat columns.
There are other little adjustment periods like....
around the all start break b4, after,
and towards the end of the season where every game counts and teams are going for play off spots and other teams don't care
.....that wreak havoc on systems and prior logic. I see it happen all the time.
Bottom line for me is to sit back and relax a bit, perhaps a week or two until things level off, adjust your systems play alittle more on paper and pick your spots wisely. What worked before may need adjusting before it works again today. JMHO.
For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:
line I am:
FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130
Also I am a believer that a play is a play, if not, throw it out. I just never feel the need to play 1Unit, 2unit, 3, 5, 10, 20unit. Why? Becuase that is factored into the Money Line itself and my perception of value in that line as it pertains to that one game/play. Either there is or is not value.
No disrespect to players who love some games more than others. Not my style. So many times I see guys with winning records lose money because of this. Some players control this and keep the units close as in 1*=$1,000 2*=1,200 3*=$1,300 4*=1,400 and 5*=$1,500 and that's it. The 3* being their single Unit and they have room on either side to pump up or pull back a little - but they are all relatively close.
From a bookie's perspective pumping up your bet size means:
Chasing - because you are getting crushed and cannot pay, you will be eating beans and rice for the next two months.
Invincibility - just because you are hot and up more than the usual somehow your capping skills have magnified this particular week in some godlike form that you did not have over the past 10 years - so might as well double and triple your bet sizes to take advantage of this phenomenon? Unload on the lock! What baffles me is why do you all think this amazing capping power is fleeting? I guess you do because the 50* Unit plays come outta nowhere - better onload before the pixie dust wears off.
This multiple star/unit always amazes me as does the player who cites "Pitcher A is 20-7 Lifetime against the Cards". This was a good stat when ball players and coaches and philosophies stayed on a team for the duration. But the reality these days is that those first 6 wins against the Cards by Pitcher A happened 7 years ago when Pitcher A was on a different, perhaps more offensive and motivated club, and today the opposing Cards may have only two players from 7 years ago not to mention they may have gone through a skipper or two and maybe even a ballpark or owner or a league change!
Remember when the Marlins bought all those players in 91 or 92, won the world series and disbanded the team? They went to back to the basement after that. That is why these stats from previous season mean a great deal less than people think.
In MLB I like to bet dogs early on because pitchers need to get into form, the weather is cold, especially the heavier guys (Although CC is making a liar out of me) and although the same pitcher is the same pither as last year there was an off season, they guy is a year older, things change a bit. The lines are based on last year's performance. Can that be totally accurate first 3 starts? Don't forget those characters in the bull penn and bats?
If you are a mid level odds layer/taker who can pick some good dogs and can hit overall 50% of your games you are going to grind out a winning season.
50% is not that unheard of but the real key is discipline, a solid bankroll and money management. So many times especially in NFL I see guys on point spread picks hit 4 out of 6 games, but they got killed by doubling up on that last game that lost or having one of those losers in parlays and teasers.