Pitchers have about 5 stars under their belts, coming into form, managers are working out bull penn issues and batters are batters, hot and cold.
What does all this mean? This is the first adjustment time. Happens in NBA and NFL as well.
Vegas lines are getting sharper. This is when accomplished MLB players with good money management and a solid bankroll perservere and the squares get booted out - returning again in a bit only to get booted out during other adjustments coming in the season.
My advice is to cut back, pick your spots wisely and take it all in. Don't chase, don't play with scared money and most importantly make sure your system that worked last month is going to work today.
Although pitchers are always what determines the lines, teams are playing more like teams now and more of the whole team needs to be taken into consideration - meaning a hot team scoring 6-9 runs a game only needs an average outting from their pitching staff, starting pitcher included. There is motivation and momentum and stuff in their heads that don't ever get to the stat columns.
There are other little adjustment periods like....
around the all start break b4, after,
and towards the end of the season where every game counts and teams are going for play off spots and other teams don't care
.....that wreak havoc on systems and prior logic. I see it happen all the time.
Bottom line for me is to sit back and relax a bit, perhaps a week or two until things level off, adjust your systems play alittle more on paper and pick your spots wisely. What worked before may need adjusting before it works again today. JMHO.
GLTA
For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:
FAV -140
DOG +130
line I am:
FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130
Also I am a believer that a play is a play, if not, throw it out. I just never feel the need to play 1Unit, 2unit, 3, 5, 10, 20unit. Why? Becuase that is factored into the Money Line itself and my perception of value in that line as it pertains to that one game/play. Either there is or is not value.
No disrespect to players who love some games more than others. Not my style. So many times I see guys with winning records lose money because of this. Some players control this and keep the units close as in 1*=$1,000 2*=1,200 3*=$1,300 4*=1,400 and 5*=$1,500 and that's it. The 3* being their single Unit and they have room on either side to pump up or pull back a little - but they are all relatively close.
From a bookie's perspective pumping up your bet size means:
Chasing - because you are getting crushed and cannot pay, you will be eating beans and rice for the next two months.
Invincibility - just because you are hot and up more than the usual somehow your capping skills have magnified this particular week in some godlike form that you did not have over the past 10 years - so might as well double and triple your bet sizes to take advantage of this phenomenon? Unload on the lock! What baffles me is why do you all think this amazing capping power is fleeting? I guess you do because the 50* Unit plays come outta nowhere - better onload before the pixie dust wears off.
This multiple star/unit always amazes me as does the player who cites "Pitcher A is 20-7 Lifetime against the Cards". This was a good stat when ball players and coaches and philosophies stayed on a team for the duration. But the reality these days is that those first 6 wins against the Cards by Pitcher A happened 7 years ago when Pitcher A was on a different, perhaps more offensive and motivated club, and today the opposing Cards may have only two players from 7 years ago not to mention they may have gone through a skipper or two and maybe even a ballpark or owner or a league change!
Remember when the Marlins bought all those players in 91 or 92, won the world series and disbanded the team? They went to back to the basement after that. That is why these stats from previous season mean a great deal less than people think.
In MLB I like to bet dogs early on because pitchers need to get into form, the weather is cold, especially the heavier guys (Although CC is making a liar out of me) and although the same pitcher is the same pither as last year there was an off season, they guy is a year older, things change a bit. The lines are based on last year's performance. Can that be totally accurate first 3 starts? Don't forget those characters in the bull penn and bats?
If you are a mid level odds layer/taker who can pick some good dogs and can hit overall 50% of your games you are going to grind out a winning season.
50% is not that unheard of but the real key is discipline, a solid bankroll and money management. So many times especially in NFL I see guys on point spread picks hit 4 out of 6 games, but they got killed by doubling up on that last game that lost or having one of those losers in parlays and teasers.
GLTA
04/11 SUN Yes today is really Sunday
RECORD: 4-9, -03.55 UNITS
Yest 2-3, -01.15 UNITS
SD PADRES +220 (LISTED)
WAS NATS +220 (LISTED)
ATL BRAVES +180 (LISTED)
DET TIGERS -200 (ACTION)
HOU ASTROS +180 (LIST OSWALT)
CHI CUBS +100 (LIST GORZE)
U 7 SF GIANTS -115 (LISTED OF COURSE)
For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:
FAV -140
DOG +130
line I am:
FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130
GLTA
RECORD: 1-4, -2.75 UNITS
KC ROYALS +140
MIL BREWERS -105
All bets are Action unless otherwise noted, and for one unit - always - meaning:
FAV -140
DOG +130
line I am:
FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130
GLTA
RECORD: 0-1, -1.00 UNIT
Lost with the Yanks yesterday CC pitched petter than JB, Yanks ahead a few times. As a dog I think it was a good play and I'd play it again.
Today I think there is value in the following games, hoping to split.
SD PADRES +175
WAS NATS +190
CLE INDIANS +150
PIT PIRATES +125
All bets are Action unless otherwise noted, and for one unit - always - meaning:
FAV -140
DOG +130
line I am:
FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130
GLTA