Posted Thursday, December 15, 2011 10:52 AMHad a pretty solid year betting the Big Ten, this conference is what I follow and watch. I certainly catch a lot of other action as well, but not like I used to. For the Bowl games, I got:
Michigan State +3.5 (and some of the ML)....Yes, they've been horrid in bowl games under Dantonio, going 0-for, but I think this team will be focused. This isn't last years CapitalOne Bowl, this ain't a pissed off Bama v.s. an unmotivated MSU. This is two teams that would probably split a 10 game series (strictly hypothetical), but I think MSU comes in with a chip on their shoulder. MSU 27-23
also on:
Nebraska/S. Carolina UNDER 47
Northwestern +10
Penn St/Houston UNDER 56.5
Will be adding Wisky at some point, but gonna wait and see if I can get 7. Will probably be adding Oklahoma as well, but I'm gonna continue to let people drive that line down. Looking at the Illini (what a shitfest this bowl is), WMU/Purdue OVER. No play on the Va Tech/Michigan game as of right now. Sorry no write-ups, I'm short on time but will be around to chat the next few weeks when possible. good luck ya'll
I got smoked at 116, still feeling the loss on Carwin. It was my biggest play of the year and I felt I had that capped as good as any fight I've bet in years, it just didn't pan out. It was 13 unit swing, going from thinking Carwin had it won and me winning 8 units, to seeing Lesnar wear him down and me losing 5 units. But life goes on. For 117, I've got:
Clay Guida -107 (2.14 units to win 2 units)...I see Guida being too strong for Dos Anjos. Clay should be able to take him down and out wrestle him for 3 rounds. This one could put me to sleep from boredom, I'm just hoping it will also put 2 units into my account.
Jon Fitch -104 (1.04 units to win 1 unit)...Pretty much the same blueprint we'll see from Guida. Not to mention, Alves has had the 1-year plus layoff which has been profitale to fade lately.
Matt Hughes +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)...Hughes already whooped up on Almeida's teacher, Renzo Gracie, I don't see why he can't beat the student. I really don't like either one of these guys and I'm not a fan of watching either one fight, but I do think there is value in getting Hughes at this price. I just really hope that if Hughes does win, we don't here Joe Rogan claim that Hughes is back in the Welterweight title picture, because he's not, and he never will be.
Roy Nelson +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)...How can you not be a fan of the fat guy? JDS is a bad dude, but at some point this fight will hit the ground, and I think that's where Nelson could ultimately finish it. 3-to-1 on the fat guy sounds valuable to me.
Rodney Wallace +500 (.5 units to win 2.5 units)...Davis took this fight on short notice and this is a drop-off in competition for him. Defitnitely the possibility of Davis being under-prepared and getting caught by one of those power-packed shots of Wallace. And hell, does a +500 fighter ever look like a wise bet before the fight?
Parlay: Silva/Saunders (1 unit to win .8 units)
Good luck ya'll!! I've got a big golf outing Saturday afternoon, I'm hoping I don't drink too much and pass out and miss the fights, but who knows?
2010 MMA: 14 - 15, + 11.78 units
I got crushed at UFC 114, and then I was out of town golfing during 115, so I just took the whole event off, good thing too 'cuz I liked Thiago. For my underdog of the year (FWIW: my only other underdog of the year was Leonard Garcia +160 a couple of years ago v.s. Jens Pulver and Garcia KO'd him in the first couple of minutes), I got:
Shane Carwin +160 (5 units to win 8 units)....I'm normally a 1 unit bettor with the ocasional 2 unit wager here and there, but I absolutely love this value, unbelievable too me that he is offered this high. I honestly would take this at +120!! Maybe that makes me an idiot, but I think this fight is a toss-up, perhaps even Carwin a 55% fav to win this. Just so many variables against Brock. Lesnar's layoff certainly favors Carwin, while Brock has been away from the ocatgon battling a career and even life-threating disease, Carwin has been training his ass off. And it showed in his dismantling of Mir. Carwin has had two different camps preparing for Brock only to be dissapointed and have the fight postponed, now, in his third camp, he definitely will have a gameplan, considering he's spent an awful lot of time prepping for this fight over the last year.
Brock is still so "green" when it comes to MMA. He is bigger than everybody, and that is really his only advantage. His size/strength advantage has been huge in his previous UFC fights and that won't be the case in the fight. While he still owns the advantage over Carwin, it is not enough to win this fight on that alone. If he is able to take Shane down, Carwin has the wrestling ability and strength to get back up, which is something Brock hasn't seen in an opponent yet. Not to mention, Carwin is by far the best striker Brock has ever faced, so when he shoots on Carwin, if Brock isn't aware of the strike, it will be lights out for him. All of Brocks previous opponents lacked KO power, Carwin has it in every one of his limbs.
I love the fact that Carwin is actually the more experienced fighter for the first time in his career. Although this fight isn't likely to be a long grueling war, experience is still nice to have on our side.
I also like the fact that every single second that these two fighters are standing, pretty much favors Carwin. Now, I'm not saying Brock can't land a big shot standing up, but I do think he isn't very likely do so. Carwin hits hard, very hard. I think Brock will find that out rather early. Carwin by TKO, 1st round!!!
For UFC Fight Night:
Hammil -140 (1.4 units to win 1 unit)
Leben +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)
will likely add a couple more...
Good luck ya'll !!!!!!
Izzo..........Please Stay !!!!!!!!!!
Season: 98 - 94
Sparty Bets: 15 - 8
2-2 posted last night, but actually had a great night, just wasn't able to post my late plays. Kinda got lucky on the IU/PU UNDER with noone scoring the last couple of minutes, but I've been doing this shit long enough to be owed some wins like that. For the Sparty game....
Penn State +13.....This game is definitely a trap for Sparty. They haven't played well for a while now and they are still in shape to tie for first place in the Big Ten. It's been a rough few weeks for Sparty, and all they need to do is beat PSU and Michigan at the Breslin in the next 4 days, and they will be Big Ten Co-Champs with OSU and Purdue. Big Ten titles are fun, but there are much bigger goals out there, and despite what 95% of this forum thinks, I still believe this MSU team is a threat to make the Final Four. But I digress.
I think the win Sunday was nice, it was ugly, but it got this team in position to win the conference again. So, ultimately, they've done their job so far this season, to a certain extent. But I look at this game as a bad sandwich spot. Sparty is coming off an emotional win at Purdue that allowed them to be playing for the title, and the big senior day game looms on the horizon against the hated Wolverines. Right smack-dab in the middle is a game v.s. a team they already beat by DD's on the road. A tough situational spot for MSU. Sure PSU won at the Breslin last year and that could be used as motivation for MSU, but this is an identical situation to MSU/Northwestern. NU won at the Breslin last season, and MSU smoked 'em in Evanston earlier this year, and then beat them by 9 at the Breslin a few weeks ago. Well, MSU won at PSU already this season, so I think the "revenge" factor is not really there.
MSU is 5-9 as a DD fav this season and they typically don't even do that well. Izzo has never cared about winning games by 28 points to impress people. Win the game and get ready for the next one. One thing I really like about Penn State is that they should be able to hang around on the glass. In the first meeting, MSU outrebounded them by 9, which actually isn't bad. But in last year's game at the Breslin, MSU outrebounded them by only 3, and if PSU can hang with 'em on the boards, they should definitely stay within the posted 13.
Good luck ya'll !!!!
2010 MMA: 4-0 +6.55 units
Had a great 109 and got 2010 off to a great start, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and I bet these fights based on where I see value, so there will be plenty of losses this year, I'm just hoping the units end up in the positive. These may not be the most popular picks, but here's what I got....
Big Nog -110 (2.2 units to win 2 units)....I've been waiting for +money, but I'll just settle with the -110. Cain has gotten his career off to a nice start, but Nog is world class, and a huge step up in competition. Cain obviously has a wrestling advantage, but other than that, I think Nog has him beat in every other category.
Bonnar +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)....I know this isn't a popular pick, but I'm just not sold on the PE yet. He doesn't have a quality win in the UFC yet, and I think Bonnar realizes this may be his last shot if he's not successful in this fight.
Dollaway +200 ( 1 unit to win 2 units)....I can't stand this dude, but I'll take an aggressive striker with outstanding wrestling skills @ +200 v.s. a guy that hasn't fought in the UFC in damn near 2 years. Plus, doesn't Dolloway have to start to live up to that potential sometime?
Jardine +120 (1 unit to win 1.2 units)....I like betting Jardine as a 'dog. Bader is stepping up in competition, not that Jardine is top tier, but he is certainly better than anybody Bader has faced. I think Jardines leg kicks and unorthodox striking will keep Bader at bay.
Sotiropulous +220 (1 unit to win 2.2 units) ....I never have a problem fading Stevenson, especially when I can get 2-to-1.
Good luck ya'll, should be a good card, no real huge favs, so the fighters are pretty evenly matched.