Well, back to a shitty week. I think I'm over thinking this year... I fall into that trap every so often. Kind of going "reverse-reverse" psychology... and it's not really working. For example, going against a Thursday night home dog because "everybody knows about it now" (which didn't matter), or going against Vandy on the road because most people would have been expecting them to bounce back and win easily (which they did).
I'll be trying to keep that in mind this week... don't overthink, just understand the situation.
Last week: 1-5, -4.1 units
YTD: 9-16, -9.85 units
I'll be wrapping up last week's 2H system thread next, but wanted to go ahead and get this week's games done first.
This week's SEC games & line guesses:
Alabama -21 @ Kentucky - How Kentucky can look so promising and then completely shit the bed is beyond me... even today, I don't think the Gators are 40 points better than the Cats, and I don't think Alabama is 21 points better than them, either (more like 17). After Alabama just handed out a beatdown and UK just suffered one, though, the line will be at least this, if not more.
LSU -4 @ Georgia - LSU has a more experienced offense and a defense that has performed far better to date this year... but this line will still be close. Georgia has given up 3 turnovers on offense in every game this year, and all of them have been on the Georgia side of the field. If they do that against LSU, it'll be a blowout.
Mississippi -8 @ Vanderbilt - Tough one to figure here. Ole Miss has struggled at Vandy in recent years, and Vandy tends to play better in general at home. Ole Miss has a good team, but if Vandy isn't the same team from past years that can be rolled over. If VU can limit the turnovers, they will keep it close here. Line could be anywhere from -8 to -13.
Georgia Tech -8 @ Mississippi State - This one should be fun to watch. And by fun, I mean excruciating. GT's schizophrenic triple-option versus Dan Mullen's spread-option-without-the-good-players seems like a good bet to be either way under or way over, but there will be no in-between. If Tech shows up, they win by at least 2 TD's. If they don't show up, it's a coin-flip.
Arkansas PICK vs Texas A&M @Cowboys Stadium - An old SWC rivalry gets rekindled under the World Biggest Scoreboard(TM) in Dallas (or thereabouts). Arkansas has faced Georgia and Alabama and lost, while Texas A&M has feasted on cupcakes up to this point. I'm always of the opion that a tested, battle-hardened team is in a better position than a team that hasn't really had to play a tough game against equivalent competition, so I give the Hogs the edge in this one. (Ryan Mallet should also find the A&M secondary much more accomodating than the Tide's defense.)
Auburn @ Tennessee -3 - If you run into someone who swears they know what's going to happen in this game, slap them, 'cause they're lying. Both teams have looked respectable in the one other SEC game they've played, and struggled this past week to put away lesser competition, though they eventually did. Give UT the 3 points for home field advantage, but who the hell knows how this one will turn out.I would say that, depending on the lines, the teams to look out for this week are Kentucky, LSU, and maybe Arkansas.
Anyone who has followed my posts in the past on this board knows I'm a big Georgia fan, but I'm also a pragmatic sports better. And, just like any good bettor, I never play "homer" for my own team.
With that in mind, I seriously think that this season could start really ugly for Georgia. The early schedule is murder, and they could legitimately start the season 2-3, or even worse. The schedule does get easier, though, and they will probably make a run and end up with a respectable season, though not 10 wins.
Players lost:There's no getting around this one. Georgia lost their #1 QB, RB, and WR, two of which were top-10 picks in the draft. Those would be devastating losses to most programs, but for Georgia, it might have actually helped their team chemistry.
The loss that will end up hurting the most is actually Mohamed Massaquoi at WR, since the starting QB this year will be Joe Cox, a 5-year player in the DJ Shockley mold. Also, there is no firm starting RB coming back, but the top 4 players, while not being Knowshon, are still excellent runners, and will have an offensive line with at least 7 players with starting experience coming back.
Schedule: This is Georgia's killer hurdle for this season. Much was made about Georgia's schedule last year, but this years' lineup should actually be more difficult than last year. They face 7 bowl teams from last year, and in addition to their always-difficult SEC lineup, they play 3 of their 4 non-conference games against teams from BCS conferences. (And not patsys like Stanford or UConn.)
Prediction: ATS: 5-6
Straight up: Anywhere between 6-6 and 10-2
See schedule breakdown in the next post.