-29-'s Blog

Important Information if you are planning to wager on The CAA Tournament.

By -29- | View all Posts
Posted Friday, March 05, 2010 01:04 AM   47 comments

I attend the CAA tournament every year and every year I am amazed at how bad the shooting is in most of the games.The tournament is held every year in the Richmond Coliseum which is a venue that none of the teams visit during the regular season.The Coliseum is much more spacious than any of the on campus facilities and I think that teams have a real problem with depth perception for some reason.That could explain the terrible shooting % numbers that routinely occur during the CAA tournament and why very good shooters like Matt Janning and John Vaughan both took shots from the top of the key last year and missed everything and why most every team struggled from behind the arc.

 The Under cashes at a very high rate in these games as it was 8-1-2 last year,7-4 in '08,and 7-4 in '07.In the last 3 years the Under is 10-2 in round 2.Here are some stats from last year's tournament;

Game #1- GSU 54 DEL.41  Total falls 33 points under as both teams combine to shoot 5/34 from 3pt.(14.7%).

Game #2- Hofstra 79 UNCW 66  Total pushes

Game #3- JMU 70 W&M 48 Total falls 11 points under as both teams combine to shoot 17/29 from the foul line and W&M shoots 1/18 from 3pt.(5.5%).

Game #4- Towson 73 Drexel 62 Total goes over by 12 in a foul fest as there are 72 free throws shot.It took Drexel 7 minutes to score their first points,they had 14 at the half,and shot just 3/18 from 3 pt.(16.6%).

Game #5- VCU 61 GSU 52 Total falls under by 9. VCU is the one team that always shoots well in the Coliseum but their strong defense keeps their game totals low.

Game #6- ODU 52 Hofstra 51 Total falls under by 20.5 as Gerald Lee was on fire but the rest of the Monarchs shot 8/37fg (21.6%),2/13 from 3pt.(15.3%),and 8/19 from the foul line(42%).

Game #7- GMU 61 JMU 53 Total falls under by 14.5 as teams combine to shoot 36/114fg (31.5%) and 6/34 from 3pt.(17.6%).

Game #8- Towson 58 N'Eastern 54 Total falls 17 points under.

Game #9- VCU 61 ODU 53  Total falls under by 9.5 as ODU shoots 16/50fg (32%) and 1/9 from 3pt. (11%).

Game #10- GMU 56 Towson 48  Total falls under by 22 as both teams combine to shoot 52% from the foul line.

Game 11- VCU 71 GMU 50 Total pushes.

2008 - 1st round Under 3-1, 2nd round 2-2, Semis 2-0,CG 0-1

2007- 1st round Under 1-3, 2nd round 4-0, Semis 1-1, CG 1-0

I'm hoping that this trend continues as I will be blindly backin' the under in all 11 games this weekend. 

 I hope that this information is useful for some of you guys,I will be adding some more CAA stats,facts,notes,etc. to follow.  

47 comments
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occy777 says:
03/05/10 01:09AM
Good info.
jajknight says:
03/05/10 01:14AM
thanks...yeah teams will up their D...under is a good bet across the board i would think...
-29- says:
03/05/10 01:32AM

occy ~

jaj ~

jaj ~ I agree that defense is turned up during the postseason but these numbers are beyond that.The 8 winning unders last year hit by an average of over 17 points per game.Plus defense has nothing to do with missing wide open jumpers badly or the fact that for the entire tournament last year all teams combined to shoot under 60% from the foul line (273/458).

PurduePride2206 says:
03/05/10 01:35AM
-29- says:
03/05/10 01:45AM

Purdue ~

 Even though I'm not a Boiler' fan, I was distraught when Robbie went down.

-29- says:
03/05/10 02:19AM

The last time that ODU was the #1 seed for the CAA tournament was 2005 when they won the championship by beating VCU.

 For the first time in CAA history the top 7 seeds all had at least 10 conference victories.

Two of the first round matchups feature rtematches from last saturday's seaon finales as Hofstra defeated GSU 87-74 and Drexel beat JMU 67-64.

The #1 seed has captured the CAA championship 7 of the last 8 years.

No team playing in the first round has ever won a championship,but a team playing in the first round has made it to the finals in 2 of the past 3 years. ( GMU #6 in '07 and W&M #5 in '08).

Hofstra has won 6 games in a row and 9 of last 10,Old Dominion has won 14 of its last 17,and Northeastern is 17-4 in its last 21 games.Towson won thier last 2 games of the year while Delaware finished the regular season with 6 straight losses.

All CAA First Team

Charles Jenkins- Hofstra, Larry Sanders- VCU, Chaisson Allen-NE, Gerald Lee- ODU, Matt Janning- NE.

All CAA Second Team

David Schneider- W&M, Denzell Bowles- JMU. Joey Rodriguez- VCU, Cam Long- GMU, Jawan Carter- Delaware.

 

Towson vs.UNCW notes

Towson gives up the most points per game in the CAA at a clip of 76 points per game. To make matters even worse, the Tigers are near the bottom of the NCAA in points allowed per defensive possessions. Towson gives up an average of 1.074 points per defensive possession, good for 328th in the NCAA. In conference play, Towson is actually worse – giving up an average of 1.09 points per possession.

Despite Towson’s apparent inability to prevent teams from scoring, this may not be of concern to Tiger fans as UNCW scores the FEWEST points per possession in the CAA (0.94) and is even worse in conference games (0.88). Clearly a case of the immoveable force (UNCW’s offense) against the moveable object (Towson’s defense)

.UNCW C John Fields doesn't look like he will be available for the CAA tournament as he is trying to recover from a dislocated kneecap.Fields is the 'Hawks best inside presense.He is second on the team in scoring (10.2ppg) and first in rebounding (8.7rpg) and blocked shots (2.3bpg).He started 25 games.

Rocafella says:
03/05/10 02:25AM
Good info.  As long as Towson doesn't have Gary Neal anymore, I may lean under 143.5
VegasMaxx says:
03/05/10 02:30AM
37-17 Under in the last 6 years
ASkinsFanInDixi says:
03/05/10 02:34AM

Hail......

This is the kind of info this site was made for  O'h hell Double

Thank you

 out

gabs24 says:
03/05/10 05:37AM
great stuff
bense197969 says:
03/05/10 05:49AM

Very good info, this reminds of back in the day when this site was helpful

I took W & M at +500 to win it !!

JEG53 says:
03/05/10 06:00AM
thanks good stuff,
222bad says:
03/05/10 06:02AM
Great stuff 29.  Going to be looking hard at the totals in this tourney now.  Thanks and BOL
eddie_mush715 says:
03/05/10 07:24AM
   awesome reading material!!           thank you !
Skipbone says:
03/05/10 07:27AM
29
accventures says:
03/05/10 08:02AM
Bobbys_pregame says:
03/05/10 08:15AM
-29-.....do you have a pick between NC Wilmington and Towson? I am thinking of locking in either Towson +2 or Tenn Chattanooga -1, after hearing the big center will not play now it could play a major part in the game
paticake says:
03/05/10 08:31AM

Very Interesting................

    Beautifully written,  Thanks and it sounds like a plan!!!!.

ksp47 says:
03/05/10 08:32AM
Damn good stuff 29. Thanks alot for the heads up. I'll definitely check it out.
paticake says:
03/05/10 08:36AM
Maybe Towson game   UNDER
Louis_IV says:
03/05/10 08:47AM
gReat infor brother.
BigDaddyPhil says:
03/05/10 08:54AM

One of the best posts I have read in quite sometime!!  Thanks for the info!! 

Leaning towards VCU & Drex today.........any thoughts?

BIG PHIL

-Tical- says:
03/05/10 09:27AM
I agree with BDP 100%. Great info man. Muchas gracias.
-29- says:
03/05/10 09:37AM

Thanks to everyone!

I enjoyed putting this thread together,hopefully it will prove to be helpful.

 

Bobby ~ I don't really have a feel for the Towson/UNCW winner.Towson is heating up at the right time winning back to back games for the first time all season.UNCW without it's 2 leading scorers ran a Princeton style offense and had one of it's best offensive outputs of the year scoring 76 and beating Drexel on the road by 6.Then leading scorer Chad Tomko returned for the season finale and their offense looked terrible as they lost at home by dd to W&M managing only 51 points.So I don't know what to expect.UNCW is 1-3 in the CAA tourney over the last 3 years while Towson is 4-3 as they have won their first round game each year.The Tigers are also an amazing 7-0 ATS over the last 3 years of the tournament but I just don't trust them.

I think that I'll just take the UNDER.  

 

-29- says:
03/05/10 09:57AM

 

Thanks BP!

I know that VCU is really focused on being the first team to win the CAA tourney by winning 4 games in a row and that they truly feel like defending champions and not a 5 seed.I also know that the Coliseum will be a sea of yellow today and unbelievably loud when the Rams take the floor.It should be noted that in VCU's earlier 77-64 win over Delaware the Rams didn't have Larry Sanders who is their leading scorer,rebounder,and shot blocker,as he was serving a 1 game suspension.Sanders will be matched up today against freshman Jamelle Hagins.Also in their earlier meeting Delaware had the services of starting F Kelvin McNeil and F Josh Brinkley,both have since been lost to injury.

 

webba says:
03/05/10 10:01AM
Great info 29a...Always knew you were an asset to our forum....
tmpeus78 says:
03/05/10 10:05AM
Great info and insight! 
tmpeus78 says:
03/05/10 10:10AM

So no leans for the game, well besides under? I was thinking about a VCU 1h play but see it's at -8.5 right now. 
smac38 says:
03/05/10 10:16AM

great info buddy

its stuff like this that makes me love this site

betjackson says:
03/05/10 10:29AM
Yes, great info, many thanks.  Now for the winners?  BOL
tinfoils says:
03/05/10 05:27PM
GL guys. That Hofstra under scares me. They played on 2/27 and combined for 161.
JAHRUSCN says:
03/05/10 11:24AM
WizrduvOdz says:
03/05/10 05:59PM
Great info
sjewell29 says:
03/05/10 11:30AM
Great write-up!!!!! Thanks for the time putting it together, and lets hope it brings us all some !!!!!!!!!!
theCOBfather says:
03/05/10 10:30AM
GL
lillefty says:
03/06/10 10:25AM
the tourney was on XM satellite radio channel 143 yesterday for those who want to listen to the radio.
mdc144 says:
03/06/10 10:32AM
BOL today!
Raider99 says:
03/05/10 11:58AM

I like the under for the first half for both the 12pm games.

 

-29- says:
03/06/10 10:18AM

What a crappy day in the Coliseum.First of all it was freezing in there and it was a very sparse crowd for the opener as VCU fans bought up 90% of the first session tickets and didn't show up for the first game.Secondly it was clear from the first minutes of the Towson/UNCW game that the under was cooked as UNCW had 11 turnovers in the first 15 minutes that let Towson gain an early 20 point lead.From that point on it was bombs away for both teams.The Seahawks had no inside defensive presense without Josh Fields and Chad Tomko clearly still has ankle issues as he was noticeably slow and could not hang with Troy Franklin.Franklin started the second half off by scoring 7 points in the first 2 minutes and Tomko was benched for the remainder of the game and Towson became the first team since 1996 to score 90 points in a CAA tournament game.

 The VCU game was nice,and the Hofstra/GSU first half under hit and that game was looking good but 12 free throw attempts in the closing minutes pushed the total over.The nightcap under looked good at halftime despite 27 first half free throws.But when there were 46 free throws awarded in the second half and a total of 55 personal fouls issued for the game,that was more than any under could survive.

 What bothered me most about yesterday's results was the fact that some of you guys lost money due to this thread.For that I sincerely apologize.But I am personally undaunted as today is "money day" as round 2 unders are 10-2 over the last 3 years.I am bumping up my units not to chase but because of the strong trend of recent past results.

 I am not going to Richmond today but will be watching local tv coverage of tournament,so if I have any useful observations I will post them here.

Good Luck to everyone today!      

222bad says:
03/06/10 10:29AM
Like the day two trends myself 29.  Going to try and recoup some of yesterdays loses.  BOL
brrrlacher says:
03/05/10 05:18PM

Awesome!

So far I am +45...I don't bet a ton.  But, I am going to stick with my system.

50 Under Towson (-55)
100 Under VCU (+100)

Pending:

Under 131.5 Hofstra 55/50

brrrlacher says:
03/05/10 12:45PM
for real.  I am into it for 50 so far.
brrrlacher says:
03/05/10 11:47AM

Well, let's see...there are 4 games there today...If you have the bankroll to double your bet, it looks like at least one of the games will go under!

Example:

50 Under Towson....wait...if loses, 100 under VCU...wait...if loses 200 Under Hofstra...

If first game (or any game during stretch) wins start system from beginning...50 under VCU...

Do for the remainder of the tourney.

dmsgmm15 says:
03/07/10 02:17AM
hahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahaha i agree misfits...btw i would love to bury my head in that ass on your avavtar
datruth34 says:
03/05/10 04:21PM

winner winner chicken dinner....thx -29- just hit for $1300!!! just hopped back on the train with the Hofstra under for $800

LETS GO!!!!

datruth34 says:
03/05/10 12:04PM
-29- you the man!!! Love info like this!! I'll definately playing the unders in this tourney!! Thanks again.
Hawaii79 says:
11/22/11 01:18AM
I am a very amiture gambilure and I think you have a valide point, but for a different reason. Houston is 11-0 and they have been the same ats so I think they are finally not going to cover the spread they may win but not cover. There was a co-worker of mine that he doesnt bet at all but the first time I show him a paper he said the easy pick was Tuzla over smu. That was the week after smu beat tcu. So who knows? But I think your articles make a lot of sense.
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User: -29-
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