14daroad's Blog

Posted Saturday, October 06, 2012 01:21 PM

10/6/12 NCAA FB Sat

YTD: 1-2 (-$110)
Lackluster last week, let's see if we can get something going today...

Prediction: Florida 21, LSU 17

3:30 PM Play: Florida +2 +103

This game reminds me of last week's Ohio State/Michigan State clash, in that something just seems wrong with LSU, as it has been with MSU.  In last week's meeting with visiting Towson, LSU played a rather sloppy game, losing three fumbles and committing 10 penalties, and as for the LSU defense, it was taken to task by the Towson rushing attack, which amassed 188 yards and accounted for a pair of TDs. On the other side of the ball, Florida has used the run effectively so far, averaging 224.5 ypg on 5.0 yards per carry. RB Mike Gillislee has 402 yards and five TDs already. As for the Gators' QB Jeff Driskell he’s hitting the mark on nearly 70 percent of his throws. Defensively, Florida has enjoyed similar success to that of LSU, permitting a mere 12.8 ppg. The Gators have allowed only two passing scores all season, and they are giving up 102 fewer total yards per game that the offense generates. This will be a dog-fight, but look for Florida to again make the necessary 2H adjustments to pull away with a home win.



Posted Saturday, October 23, 2010 09:30 AM

NCAA Sat 10/23/10

YTD: 8-10 Trying to get over the hump, 1 week at a time....

3:30 p.m. play: Georgia Tech +4½
Coming into this game, The Yellow Jackets have been solid against both the run and the pass, netting 13 takeaways and totaling 15 sacks. Meanwhile, last weekend the Tigers managed only 213 total yards, including 94 rushing yards on 44 attempts. Kyle Parker, who has completed 53.4 percent of his passes for 866 yards and seven touchdowns with four interceptions, really has no big play receiver as no player has more than 18 catches thus far. Defensively, Clemson is permitting 21.8 ppg and 359.2 total ypg and they are allowing 12.7 yards per completion! While Nesbitt is a run first, option quarterback, Tech should have some options offensively and be able to move the ball & score.
Finally, the Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, the Underdog is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings, and the road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Georgia Tech is playing inspired football right now, as the team has ripped off three consecutive victories and the have won 4 in row in this series. I look for it to be 5 as they should get the straight up win in Death Valley on Saturday.

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Looking at a few more here...

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Posted Saturday, October 16, 2010 10:35 AM

NCAA Sat 10/16/10

YTD: 6-9  -- Trying to fight back 1 week at a time....

3:45 p.m play: SMU +1½
The Mustangs come storming into Annapolis riding a two-game winning streak led by Kyle Padron fresh off a tremendous outing, throwing for 381 yards and three scores last weekend against Tulsa. Padron has been sensational for the most part this season, as the sophomore gunslinger has completed 58 percent of his passes and comes into this weekend with 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Navy was torched for 326 yards through the air against Wake Forest last weekend. Additionally, the run oriented Midshipmen (their ground game has not been as prolific as years past) will be facing a defense limiting the opposition to just 115.2 rushing ypg, along with a mere 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs is completing only 45% of his passes with 3 TD's and 4 INT's. The Mustangs have played well heading into this contest, using a passing attack to crush opposing defenses (with a rushing attack averaging 149.2 ypg), while defensively holding the opposition to a low average on the ground. That should add up for a nice road victory for the Mustangs.

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7:00 p.m. play: Wisconsin +3½
Badgers halfbacks John Clay (the 2009 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year) and James White have run wild all season, combining for 1,177 yards in six games. So, Wisconsin's ground attack is something that coach Tressel is co... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 09, 2010 01:59 PM

NCAA Sat - 10/9/10

YTD: 4-8

A horrific first few weeks.  I have a glimmer of hope as at this time last year my system turned around. Shooters keep shooting...

3:30 PM: Texas A&M +5
Playing the RLM.

8:00 p.m. play: Florida State + 6
Miami is limiting opponents to only 15.0 ppg, while opponents are scoring just 15.4 PPG against Florida State, which is yielding a mere 293.4 total ypg and FSU tops the nation with 25 sacks. However, the Seminoles have a more balanced and potent offense (generating 35.0 ppg & Miami QB Jacory Harris 8 INT's) as in their last 3 games, the Seminoles defeated Wake Forest, BYU, and Virginia by a combined 99-24 margin, covering all three games. They also held those three teams to their lowest yardage totals of the season. The Hurricanes have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games when meeting foes with an above .500 record. Miami is 6-12 ATS versus ‘lined’ opponents at home since Randy Shannon became head coach in 2007. And they are 3-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 10 points. Finally, the underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. In a battle of defenses, I'm taking the points and the trends.
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10:00 p.m. Play: Arizona State +1
The Sun Devils, led by Stephen Threet who remains the top passer in the Pac-10, travel to take on the Huskies who are giving up 32.5 points per game and rank 107th in the nation in total defense (440.25 ypg). Last week, ASU freshman runn... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 02, 2010 10:04 AM

NCAA Sat 10/2/10

YTD: 4-5

Some early games for today:

12:20 p.m play: Kentucky +3
Through four outings, Kentucky is generating 461.0 total ypg thanks to tremendous balance. Led by Mike Hartline who has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 922 yards with six scores and two interceptions, the Wildcat offense faces Ole Miss defense permitting 32.0 ppg and 346.8 total ypg. The defense has already allowed 14 touchdowns, including eight passing scores. Opposing quarterbacks have been permitted to complete two-thirds of their passes against the Rebels, who have yet to record an interception. Further, the Rebels struggled against the pass in last week's win over Fresno State, as the starting quarterback of the Bulldogs finished 32-of-42 for 390 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Additionally, Kentucky are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. I'm taking the more balanced team and the points.

12:00 p.m play: Clemson +3
While the 'Canes have only surrendered 39 points through three games, they are giving up 6.5 yards/pass attempt on the road. That could be the key as Clemson's Kyle Parker has completed 35-of-60 passes for 503 yards with six touchdowns and only one interception. Against Auburn last time out, Clemson posted 414 yards and scored three touchdowns, including two through the air. Parker completed 21-of-35 passes for 227 yards and was not intercepted. Meanwhile, opponents are scoring a modest 19.3 ppg against Clemson,... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 25, 2010 02:25 PM

NCAA Sat 9/25/10

YTD: 3-3

Trying to get some traction, 3 Plays for today:

3:30pm play: Notre Dame +4½

6:00pm play: BYU +4

10:00pm play: California +6½




Posted Saturday, September 18, 2010 03:44 PM

NCAA Sat 9/18/10

YTD: 1-2. Hoping to get my system going with 3 plays tonight:

Expected Outcome: Texas Tech 30, Texas 26
8:00 p.m. play: Texas Tech +3
Tonight the Longhorns will be led by sophomore QB Garrett Gilbert in his first true road test. Gilbert may be under pressure as the run game lacks a true star at the moment. Meanwhile, the Tech offense hasn't missed a beat under Coach Tuberville as the Red Raiders are averaging nearly 335 ypg through the air. QB Tyler Potts, who threw for 293 yards and three TDs in last week's rout of New Mexico, has seven TD passes and no INTs in the first two games. WR Lyle Leong is enjoying a tremendous start as well with his 16 catches for 217 yards and five scores. Finally, Texas has failed to cover in their last five games. The Longhorns are 1-7 ATS in their past eight Big 12 Conference matchups. And, TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons with the underdog being 6-2 ATS in the last 8 of the series. I'm taking the home dog here.

Others:
7PM: Bowling Green +3½

7PM: Clemson +7





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Posted Saturday, September 11, 2010 01:49 PM

NCAA Sat 9/11/10

First post, YTD 0-0. Three for today:

3:30PM Notre Dame -3½ (-110)

4PM: Air Force - moneyline (-115)

7PM:
Vanderbilt +10½ (-115)




Posted Saturday, December 05, 2009 09:29 AM

NCAA FB SAT 12/5

My YTD at: 13-8, 61%. Hoping to get a few more winners on this last weekend. Here we go....

12:00pm play: Pittsburgh +1½

More coming.


Posted Saturday, November 28, 2009 10:59 AM

NCAA FB Sat - 11/28

Normal.dotm 0 0 1 125 715 BAE 5 1 878 12.0 0 false 18 pt 18 pt 0 0 false false false

Hoping to keep the momentum as my YTD is, 12-6, 66%.

Not as much in the way of  write-ups for the games asI'm taking it easy this weekend, just posting the #'s that I have and some trends. Let's roll...

Expected Outcome: South Florida 24, Miami-Florida 23
3:30 p.m. play: South Florida +6½

As, I wrote a few weeks back, Miami is yielding 24.8 ppg and 389.2 ypg on the road.  Well, now they get Quarterback B.J. Daniels, who last weekend, totaled 445 yards of offense and three touchdowns in a victory over Louisville. He rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns, while throwing for 304 yards and another score. Also, The Bulls have cashed 24 of 39 at Raymond James Stadium while Miami has dropped three of four spread decisions on the road this year. The Hurricanes also are a bettor-busting 3-13 as road favorites of less than seven points.

I'm going with the home dog here and expect a SU win for USF.


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More coming.





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Posted Saturday, November 21, 2009 09:51 AM

NCAA FB Sat - 11/21

The season is winding down, but hoping to grind out some more winners. My system YTD is: 10-6, 62%
Here we go...

Expected Outcome: Northwestern 27, Wisconsin 26
3:30 p.m. play: Northwestern +7 (-115)
Northwestern, led by QB Mike Kafka (2,572 YDS), will look to throw against a Badger defense allowing 8.7 yards/passing attempt and 29 PPG on the road this year. Kafka, completing 23-of-37 pass attempts for 305 yards and a score, also added a rushing touchdown to the win last week over Illinois. Kafka has been getting the job done all season long with both his arm and legs. He has completed 65.8 percent of his pass attempts with 10 touchdowns, in addition to rushing for 248 yards and seven more scores. Meanwhile, in looking at a solid common opponent, the Wildcats were able to score 17 in a win on the road @ Iowa, while the Badgers only managed 10 points at home against the Iowa. Finally, The Wildcats upset the Badgers in the past two clashes on Ryan Field and they have cashed five straight meetings at home. And, WISC are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games, and the Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
This should be quite a game, and behind Kafka and company, look for the Wildcats to spring the upset this weekend.

Looking at more...

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Posted Saturday, November 14, 2009 10:02 AM

NCAA FB SAT - 11/14

YTD: 9-6, 60%
Let's keep in going today, starting at noon:

Expected Outcome: Purdue 30, Michigan State 26
12:00 p.m. play: Purdue +3
Michigan State is scoring 30.1 ppg while gaining 419.0 total ypg, but opponents are generating 22.2 ppg against and the Spartans are allowing 333.6 total ypg. So they are a mediocre team as their 5-5 overall record indicates. Additionally, the Michigan State pass defense has struggled, allowing 22 touchdowns while posting a mere five interceptions. This is bad news for Spartan fans as Joey Elliott has taken almost every snap for Purdue this season, and he has completed 59.3 percent of his passes for 2,448 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has a pair of outstanding receivers in the fold in Keith Smith and Aaron Valentin. Smith has recorded 71 catches for 863 yards and four touchdowns, while Valentin has scored seven times and posted 603 yards on 49 grabs. Purdue posted 494 total yards against Michigan last week en route to 38 points. Elliott passed for 367 yards and two touchdowns in that win.  They showed a great deal of toughness in a 38-36 road victory over Michigan last weekend, and the Home team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings. So I'm looking for the Boilermakers, playing with a bit of confidence, to take the home win here.

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More coming.


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Posted Saturday, November 07, 2009 04:10 PM

NCAA FB Sat - Nov 7

My YTD is: 8-6, 57%
Looking to get a winner this evening:

Expected Outcome: Oregon State 27, California 26
7:00 p.m. play: Oregon State + 7
Oregon State is scoring 29.4 ppg this season to go along with 408.6 total ypg. The Beavers will be led by a frontrunner for Pac-10 Player of the Year honors, Jacquizz Rodgers. Through eight games, he has rushed for 922 yards and 14 touchdowns while also hauling in 49 receptions for 371 yards and a score. Additionally, Sean Canfield has started all eight games at quarterback for the Beavers and has connected on 68.9 percent of his throws for 2,039 yards and 11 touchdowns with four interceptions. However, the Golden Bears can best be described as an average defensive team, as they are permitting 22.1 ppg and 377.2 total ypg to opponents.
Stopping the OSU attack is something Cal coach Jeff Tedford knows is difficult to do. He noted earlier in the week: "Offensively, they're as explosive as anyone. With the Rodgers brothers [RB Jacquizz and WR James], they do such a great job... I don't know that you're ever going to stop them completely. You just hope to limit them because they are very explosive."
One other important note, Cal Tailback Jahvid Best, the best player on the team, injured his ankle last week against Arizona State, though his status is probable.
Finally, OREST are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall and they have won 7 of the last 10 in this series. I think they can hang tough and in fact... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 17, 2009 11:14 AM

NCAA FB Picks 10/17

Expected Outcome: Maryland 27, Virginia 20
4:00 p.m play: Maryland +
Kind of a scary game as both teams are bad. Virginia opened its season with three straight losses to William & Mary, TCU and Southern Miss and Virginia entered last week's game against Indiana ranked 117th in the nation in total offense. While the Maryland defense is certainly porous as the Terps rank 102nd in the nation in total defense. However, in a three-point win over Clemson two weeks ago they held Clemson to 21 points, and zero in the 4th Quarter. I think this line is a bit off as UVA is coming off a big home victory against Indiana. I'm going with MD as they are celebrating Homecoming this week, and the Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

More coming.



Posted Saturday, October 10, 2009 10:54 AM

10/10 NCAA FB Picks

Sputtering along at 4-4 YTD. I gotta make a move. Here we go...
 
Expected Outcome: Arkansas 30, Auburn 26
12:00 p.m. Play: Arkansas +2
While Arkansas carries a modest 2-2 record into this contest, the Razorbacks did manage to halt a two-game overall skid last weekend with a 47-19 thrashing of a previously unbeaten Texas A&M team. The Razorback's offense is averaging 35.8 ppg this season, and is led by Ryan Mallett who has 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions to go along with 1,148 passing yards. Meanwhile, the Tigers yielded 410 total yards, including 5.2 yards per rushing attempt and 12.9 yards per pass completion, in a win last week! Finally, the favorite is on a 3-9 ATS run in this series, the Razorbacks have covered 3 straight as home dogs, and AUB are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. I'll take the home pup and Mallett will be the difference.

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Expected Outcome: Tennessee 26, Georgia 20
12:20 PM play: Tennessee ML (-120)
Georgia is yielding 358.2 total ypg and 27.8 ppg while Tennessee is averaging 188.0 rushing ypg and 188.8 passing ypg, so there is definitely balance offensively. The Vols are scoring 29.4 ppg and nothing about UGA indicates the Vols won't get into the high 20's. However, the Georgia offense has been explosive at times this season but rather quiet at others, and are facing a defensive unit that has been steady if not spectacu... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 03, 2009 11:12 AM

Sat 10/3 NCAA FB

YTD: 3-3, trying to get this system on track...let's roll!

Expected Outcome: Boston College 26, Florida State 23
3:30 p.m play: Boston College +4
Boston College has won three of its first four games and enters this tilt following a huge 27-24 overtime win against Wake Forest. On the other hand, the Seminoles have shown themselves to be inconsistent in the early stages of the season coming off a 17-7 loss to USF.  Defensively, the Seminoles have struggled at times, including some huge lapses against the Bulls last week. The team really struggled against the run (153 yards) and was gashed a couple of times by long pass plays, including a 73- yard TD strike by the Bulls in the second quarter. On the season, the numbers show the team also has a vulnerability to the pass, giving up a generous 295.2 yards per game. Meanwhile, The BC ground game is solid with tailback Montel Harris (67.5 ypg, three TDs) leading the charge.
Finally, FSU are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games in October and the Eagles are 13-6-1 as favorites or single-digit dogs at home recently. The Eagles have looked good on defense this year and should make enough plays offensively to take the home win.

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Working on more.

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Posted Saturday, September 26, 2009 10:43 AM

Sat 9/26 NCAA FB

YTD: 2-2
Hoping to get some momentum today...

Expected Outcome: North Carolina 24, Georgia Tech 23
12:00 p.m play: North Carolina +2½
UNC's 3-0 start is its first since 1997, when the Mack Brown-led Tar Heels began the season with eight straight wins. The Tar Heels now turn their focus to the ACC and Tech which are coming off a 33-17 loss at Miami. Rebounding against a tough club like UNC is easier said than done, as the Tar Heels are led by T.J. Yates who has now completed 67.1 percent of his tosses on the year. While the offense has showed a lot of promise, the Tar Heels are built around their defense, which returned nine starters from a year ago. The unit certainly hasn't disappointed thus far, holding foes to just 198.7 total ypg, including only 52.3 rushing ypg. To make matters worse for the Yellow Jackets, tailback Jonathan Dwyer left the last game with a shoulder injury and did not play in the second half. The reigning ACC Player of the Year has amassed just 168 yards on the ground thus far, but is expected to play as he is listed as probable. Defensively, the Jackets offered little resistance against Miami, which rolled up 454 yards of total offense without a single turnover.
Finally, North Carolina looks to extend a five game 'cover' run against Georgia Tech. The dog is 8-4 in the past dozen duels, and the Tar Heels are 8-1 ATS versus an opponent with revenge off a double-digit SU win.

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Looking at the later g... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 19, 2009 11:39 AM

NCAA FB WK 3 - 9/19

YTD: 2-0 (no post last week)

Ok, playing the night game set... Let's roll!
 
Expected Outcome: Oregon State 28, Cincinnati 24
6:45 p.m. Play: Oregon State +1
After starting out with two road wins, The Beavers now return back to Corvallis to take on The 17th-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats! OSU, demonstrating great balance last week by rushing for 184 yards and throwing for 198, will be led by the sensational Jacquizz Rodgers. He rushed for 166 yards and a score on 26 carries last week, while also catching 10 balls for 65. Rodgers will look again to show off his talents against the young Bearcat defense. "Potentially we could be very good," said [Cincy] cornerback Aaron Webster. "We are still young and trying to figure out how to play together". Not good news for a cross country trip to face the Rodgers brothers (brother, James, also had a nice game last week and finished with six receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown).
Finally, OSU has won 26 consecutive non-conference games at home dating back to 1996. Head coach Mike Riley is a perfect 17-0 in non-Pac-10 home games, and OSU are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.

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Expected Outcome: Auburn 28, West Virginia 26
7:45 p.m Play: West Virginia + 7½
The West Virginia offense has been consistent through the first two weeks of the season scoring 33 and 35 points, respectively. The Mountaineers are racking up 473.5 ... [More]

Posted Monday, September 07, 2009 07:34 PM

NCAAF WK !

A couple of plays this afternoon...here we go...

Expected Outcome: Baylor 24, Wake Forest 21
3:30pm Play: Baylor + 2½
Baylor, owning four of the five all-time meetings with Wake Forest, is led by sophomore Robert Griffin who threw for more than 2,000 yards and 15 TDs in 2008 as a freshman while adding 843 yards and 13 scores on the ground. Returning to help Griffin get the job done are playmakers David Gettis, Kendall Wright and Ernest Smith. Like Griffin, Wright enjoyed a sensational rookie season last year, logging a team-best 50 catches for 649 yards and five TDs. The Bears formidable office will be facing a Wake Forest defense that certainly has some questions, as it is set to play its first game without Aaron Curry who was the heart and soul of the team's defense last season and the nation's premier linebacker. Curry is one of seven defensive starters gone from the 2008 club, and the top five tacklers have moved on allowing the Bears an opportunity to put up some big numbers in week one.
In addition, Wake Forest is 8-18-1 of late as home chalk and the Demon Deacons have dropped 12 of 14 SU versus Big 12 clubs.


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Expected Outcome: Illinois 30, Missouri 28 (@ Edward Jones Dome St. Louis, MO)
3:30 pm Play Missouri +6½
This game does not have the hype of past years, but  75% of the bets are coming in on the neutral site favorite.
While the Tigers lost Chase Daniel they welcome back leading rush... [More]

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