Posted Sunday, August 22, 2010 04:22 PM
99.5% of gamblers over their lifetime will lose money longterm, 98% every year lose online and if you guys are honest with yourself you expect to lose. So how do you beat the book, well this is what I was taught to do by my mentor.
The book right off the bat has a 5% edge on you and that's if you don't take anything over -110 and 99% will take higher than -110 which makes it even tougher. That 5% edge is what is going to beat you over the long haul over the coarse of 500 or 1,000 or 5,000 wagers. No way around it and that's assuming if you show good money management. So how do you finally put the odds in your favor?
You must wager ML dogs. The magic number should be +140 or higher. Why +140? If I win on an average of +140 and hit at 45%over a say a 100 wagers that would be +63 units -55 I lost which would be +8 units gained for every 100 wagers. Now you can't lay any kind of juice for the formula to work. If the juice is -105 even on a total you can't take it. I've had years where I hit 47% and now I'm going to have a very big year. You can't go in trying to win every wager because studying the matchup page won't give you any winners or everyone would win money. Stats mean nothing and the moment you realize this the better off you will be.
Trying to pick a winner is tough because most of it is so much more random than any of you will ever realize, espec... [More]
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 11:48 AM
There's only one type of pitcher the Yanks have more trouble than any other is sinkerballers. Other than Jeter and Cano occasionally there isn't anyone that looks to go the other way with consistancy. Obviously if Porcello gets the ball up he will get shelled but he has pitched well since coming back, only one bad start his last 7 and at this price it's more than justified in taking him. Tigers +220 and first 5.
A's -1.5 +170- Cross country flight with no day off and than you have to face Cahill coming off a home sweep? GL with that, A's should roll and Sonnastine should get hit. Watch what a public dog they become getting +$.
Zona +116- Feels like it's a coinflip game and will take my chances.
361-424 +122.56 units Yesterday 6-3 +14.15
Posted Monday, March 29, 2010 02:30 PM
The Nets are flat out under machines at home and as a Net fan I watch a lot of their games and take these unders quite often. I always noticed that when they come off a trip they play some of the ugliest games you have ever seen. So I checked and how does 12-3 ATS to the under after a road game sound. Nice let down spot for the Spurs and see them as sluggish in the outset coming off a nice road win in Boston. This is the only game I will be taking and perhaps the under in the LAL game. I don't like anything else but will give my thoughts on the other games because the card is so small.
Den/Mavs- In my wildest dreams I couldn't fathom taking Denver who is a mess and in shambles. Last game of a trip they are 2-6 ATS. The line movement alone would scare me off this game as it's already jumped a point. Sharps moved that up and you guys act like they don't know the Mavs home ATS record. Mavs will crush the Nugs today but I will don't bet the Mavs at home. PASS.
Tor/Char- I think Cats cover but the real line should be -7 not -8. The reason is because Raps are so bad on BB and well it's BB. Even though Cats are the right side I would never give a free point away on a spread let alone lay -8 so PASS.
LAL/NOH- Really wanted to take the NOH because a bad schedule spot for LAL with 3 of 4 and 4 of 6 on the road. But I can't take a team that's still trying... [More]
Posted Tuesday, March 09, 2010 10:29 AM
20-12 yesterday 5-2 Thank goodness St Mary's won.
Sixers ML- I hate trends but the one on Covers article last month I have been tracking and really like. Road dog wins SU next game on road they cover. Last time Sixers were in this spot though they lost but it has worked well for me. This isn't about trends or the Sixers but more about fading the Pacers. I really dislike this team and makeup in general. 3 times in this spot coming off a road trip of 3 or more games and they lost at home. Not much to go on there but I think they get their asses handed to them tonight.
Heavy lean DePaul- Only game I really like tomorrow in CBB tomorrow. Jumped out to me SFL giving that many points on a neutral court in a conference tourney seems really really high. Would like to hear from NBA and KS on this. Anyone else please don't chime in as I could give a fuck what your opinion is on this game . Also will the sheep get killed with UConn tomorrow? Won't play it but a home game and getting 4 to one of the most inconsistant teams in the country. Line seems too easy to take them and can see peoples bankroll getting killed on this game. What do you guys think on this. Thanks .
Heavy lean with Sac as they are 13-5 getting 7 or more. I think they will keep this one close. Portland cannot be trusted at home laying points of any kind as they are a muc... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2010 10:31 AM
Washington Wizards-If you follow my threads you know I've been on this team now for a week now and it won't stop until the oddsmakers stop baiting people to bet against them. Love how they open Memphis at -1.5. Books did this to see where the sharps were going with this one. Sure enough it dropped a half point. First move is always the sharps, last move is usually the correct one. If it went to -2 it would shoot to -2.5 quickly but didn't. That -1 for Memphis backers is for a security blanket to make them feel safe. No more big 3 and the ball is moving and they are playing as a team, Blatche has been great since the break and playing uptempo fun basketball. Now lets get to the Memphis who has an impossible spot, BB on the road after Kobe ripped their heart out. This team is not making the playoffs and just a .500 team nothing more. When young teams have a heartbreaking loss they can't come back strong the next night as it takes maturity to do so. This team will be hanging their heads and will get run off the court tomorrow by a team that is having fun playing team basketball. Don't be a fool and take Memphis.
Other games I am looking at is Philly,nice spot for them to cover the number and Dallas who should take care of business at home. I'll explain in greater detail later but want to see some line movement and where the forum is going with these games.
Posted Sunday, February 21, 2010 08:58 AM
As I am watching the Clips game which I have +1.5 I am just scanning the games tomorrow and I thought I'd give you my initial thoughts. I read people who hate threads who give leans so if you don't want to read my thoughts than just ignore this thread now.
Orl- Line is tight as shit. Although the under steams couple points fast. Nothing in research points to the over except its a National broadcast which means under is usually the proper play. Generally you shouldn't look to take overs on Thursdays or Sundays.
Boston-They get 3 at Port, than get 4 in Denver? Books aren't giving out free money on this game. Not sure how you can take Denver here as it has to be Boston or nothing. Last game of road trip is scary for Celt backers but under again is probably the better play.
Nets- Look ahead spot for Grizz. Nets are under machines at home especially before 7pm start times. Guys should be looking at Net unders, only at home though. Can't take Grizz here. Like under.
Pistons- No way can take Spurs on BB. Pistons are playing better as well as they are healthy. Like Pistons.
Minny-Gotta fly from NY than go play there on BB, won't be easy. Interesting Pinny moved so fast on this one with line dropping. Like Minny.
Houston- Game sucks, no way can take Houston right now. No way can take NO laying points right now, pass.
Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 12:57 PM
Anytime you have a small dog go to a small fav it's one of the worst signs for the small fav. This is what you have today with the Magic who escaped a win in OT vs the Bobcats. You can say well the same thing happened with the line in Charlotte, well OK its one game, the odds of it happening back to back are slim to none. This is now their 4th game in 6 nights on the road vs a young and talented team who will make a statement tonight. I can't find one real reason to take a .500 team on the road who on reputation alone are -1. Anyone who takes Orlando should be doing something else because they have no idea how to bet spots or the NBA. I fully expect to see a 65/35 type split with the bettors out there and can see this moving say a half point and watch the sharps come right before game time and pound Memphis. I am going to go very very large on this play. Oh bye the way the star, superstar, impact starter angle has now covered 10 in a row, no one thought the Hornets had any chance vs Denver and lost in OT and GS covered as well. Why you guys are not pounding these spots when you have over an 80% angle working here I will never know.
Posted Monday, August 10, 2009 09:15 AM
Betting totals are the toughest things to cap in baseball and make money. What works for me is go to four of five books online and check what their lines are.
What you want to look for is a consistency of say four of five or three of five books that have -115 or -120 and go the other way. The books do this because subconsciously people think they have an advantage laying higher juice and they want you take it.
These are little tricks the books use and when you see -105 or +100 they think the total is going to win around 66% of the time. Getting a line watcher is a must, you have to know where of the majority of money is flowing, paying a couple hundred bucks a month is worth it.
Some of you bet thousands of dollars a game and dont have every resource available to you is mindboggling. by laying -110 to -120 you have to hit at a very high rate to make money after the juice.
Look for East or West Coast teams traveling across the country w/out a day off and look to fade them and take the under, they tend to sleepwalk through these games. NEVER BET THE OVER, in baseball it should always be under or nothing UNLESS you have two dominant pitchers on the mound and the total is 7 to 7.5 than look to take the over.
Whenever something looks obvious go the other way wins more often than not. you often see two shitty pitchers on the mound and the total is only 9 or 9.5 take the under. the best park ... [More]
Posted Friday, June 26, 2009 10:44 AM
231-231 overall +102.33
172-159 2 unit plays +103.33
4-4 +1.8 units first winning day in like five days, time to get rolling
cubs-110 4 units, first 4 unit play of the year, thats how much i like this play
under 9 cubs 2 units