Posted Friday, October 25, 2013 06:24 PM
One of the aspects of maintaining the most extensive database of football point spreads
In the entire world is the whole area of perspective
Any Data file can be interpreted in different ways depending on the eye balls doing the viewing
The way we see it may not be the way you see it
This is the most exciting part of offering our "spread sheets" to the public
There has to be a gambling "nerd" out there that's going to help us all win a lot of bets
When they see something that others didn't
Until then we're keeping it simple
If a team covers in the 1st Half week in and week out
We're only betting the 1st 30 minutes
Teams that consistently win ATS for the 2nd Half will allow our patience to be tested but we won't bet them until half time
In breaking down our info for our personal wagers we NEVER look at anything except ATS records
Of course we could do better if we took into account more variables (and we're doing PRETTY DAMN GOOD already)
There is simply not enough time
When we say we NEVER look at anything...it includes the lines themselves
Then when we're creating the list of 75-95 possible wagers will be covering on any given weekend
It's quite simple...if the team is an underdog we'll look for money line opportunities
This week it's a 2 team parlay with Boise State on Friday and Dallas on Sunday
The payoff is a tick less than 7-1 which is a lo... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 24, 2013 12:18 AM
Trendsday really is a great way to spend a day in the middle of the week during football season
Breaking down mountains of Data into some type of legible information takes a while
Although the capturing of the Data starts early on any game day
And runs all day long on Saturday & Sunday
The processing of all the numbers afterwards takes most of the two days that follow
But it’s worth every second
Because when you open up your football wagering opportunities
To include every line that’s available
You’ll find the Gold Mine that is our Data
We hesitated for a bit going forward with the name SixBetsAGame
Especially when we started adding 1st Quarter Data but the fact that many NCAA games don’t have lines
Meant that SixBetsAGame remained
While almost every article you read this season focuses on how tough it’s been to pick winners
The whole industry focuses on the Games
And we’ve been fortunate enough to win more than we lose week in and week out
It’s isolating trends like the following that deserve all the credit:
Georgia State is one of the more recent additions to NCAA lines
Maybe the reason they’re doing so well ATS is that they’re getting a lot of points each week
Why our trends keep winning has never been of interest to us...we never care why
Are we cashing?
That’s all that matters
This season there hav... [More]
Posted Wednesday, October 16, 2013 05:00 PM
Marketing any business can be a difficult proposition.
Today’s consumers are flooded with messages everywhere they turn.
There’s your TV where it seems as they actually think that if it’s louder you’ll pay attention more.
to commercial sports talk radio is no different and do you really think
the talent uses all the products they’re pitching.
Your phone and the mobile advertising it transmits is now all the rage with Marketing Consultants.
Then there’s your good old email in box.
In putting together the marketing plan for our new web site we’re researching dozens of opportunities.
the last few years, businesses have noticed a dramatic decrease in
their ability to rely on email as a reliable piece of their marketing
very difficult to even get a message opened never mind having it read
or hope for the recipient to take some sort of action step.
You would think that the “Experts” in the sports wagering business would know better.
Here’s a screen shot from the email address we use for SixBetsAGame.com
This year’s Super Contest at The Las Vegas Hilton has over 1,000 contestants.
It’s the World Series of Poker for Football wagering.
So far this year 41 entrants or less than 4% have a winning percentage over 60%.
Yet the guys that are sending us emails
From all the lists we’re still on when we spent a couple of ... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 02:59 PM
When we’re betting our hard earned money it’s important to have a
solid wagering strategy. Although there are many variables involved in
picking football games, we would rather find winners than losers.
Of course, cashing your ticket is the most important end result,
it’s just that betting against a team is always a little more dicey.
Although there are some programs in the NCAA that will give you a nice
winning percentage by taking whoever they’re playing each week, we
normally try to ride a team that’s covering each week by actually
winning the game.
Louisville dialed it in for the 2nd Half last week at Temple but not
before helping us start off another very profitable Saturday by winning
the 1st Half 24-0. This week they’re hosting Rutgers. In the previous
three home games this year, the Cardinals have outscored the visiting
team 103-0. Five games into the season the only 1st Half points
Louisville has given up is a field goal by Kentucky giving them a 137-3
point differential before the break.
Teams that are giving 3 TDs or more fit well into our “Let’s Play
30!” strategy. We’ll hit them in the 1st Half before they lose their
attention span and start getting the younger kids real game experience.
1st Half Louisville (-11)
Follow Our Trends
Follow Chas On T... [More]
Posted Wednesday, October 09, 2013 09:19 PM
We're getting over a bug that kept us in bed for a couple days so there won't be a recording of this post.
Our Souvenir Football web site has allowed us to learn first hand how aggressive both the NCAA and NFL can be in protecting their brands.
The whole Play 30 theme could be setting up our mailbox for delivery of a nice little cease and desist letter.
That being said, Let's Play 30 is steadily becoming our rally cry!
It's just a fact that we have proven week in and week out during this football season.
Betting on just a 30 minute segment of a football game makes it much easier to win wagers.
Whether it's Betting The Second Half or wagers on the 1st 30 Minutes, each and every week this season our strategy has been successful.
No more was it more evident than in this week's NCAA Top 5 action.
If you had placed 5 straight bets on the Top 5 teams in the NCAA rankings the total spread you were giving was a combined 121 1/2 points.
Works out to a little more than a 3 TD average per game..
Those wagers ended up 3-2 ATS which is a 60% Win Rate and not bad.
6 out of 10 bets every week will keep you in the black and probably
lead to your friends asking you... Who do you like this week?".
When you look at those same 5 teams and how they fared in the 1st Half it's a little different outcome.
Adding the 1st Half point spreads together showed those Top 5 were giving 78 points.
Posted Saturday, October 05, 2013 02:16 AM
of us spend time each weekend playing handicapper during the football
season. Most of us would agree that being a professional gambler would
be a difficult way to go through life.
It’s very easy to bet on football games. A little more difficult to
win those bets. When you spend as much time every week dealing with data
from every football played so far this year you realize why winning is
such a rare occurrence.
The ability to offer opinions on various contests each week is a
privilege that imposes a lot of pressure. Much more than is created when
the clerk prints your tickets. Especially if you offer the same Data on
a monetary basis.
So rather than call it in the air both of the plays that excited us
are included. Since we hit games 3x quite often (including last week)
we’ll try for four on Saturday.
Kansas had a few years where they were close to being a factor. That
is not a word you would use to describe the Jay Hawk team hosting Texas
Tech. In the first three games of this season they have scored 24 points
in the 1st Half. The Red Raider D has that beat with only allowing 16
points and that’s in FOUR games.
Yet that wasn’t even the Game that excited us the most as Louisville has similar Data to what the Broncos had last week.
So this is what we’re doing.
1st Half Texas Tech (-10)
1st Half Louisville (-17.5)
2nd Half Louisville (TBD)
Posted Wednesday, October 02, 2013 06:13 PM
Every so often when we talk about sports betting we remind our readers that there is
ONLY ONE WAY TO GUARANTEE THAT YOU NEVER LOSE…
and that of course is to not bet at all.
Otherwise, the issue becomes money management.
There are many philosophies on that subject.
Ours is pretty simple:
A) Win more bets then you lose
If all bets are equal at -110 you have to win approx 53% just to break even
B) Bet more on your Best Bets
Of course they’d better win (if your Best Bet doesn’t win it’s hard not to lose money that day)
C) Avoid Parlays
If you can multiply fractions then you know there is nothing more to discuss
Here’s another ABC example to show EXACTLY HOW our 2nd Half Data will help you win more games then you lose:
Lets look at some NFL Data from last year:
A is for Arizona Cardinals –
If you followed the OV/Un for their Games last year it was a “coin flip” at 7-9
you followed the 2nd Half for the OV/Un 11 of those13 second half
finals were Under (84%) including one stretch of 8 straight weeks
B is for Buffalo Bills –
After a bye in Week 8 their record ATS in Games was 4-5
During that same stretch their 2nd Half Totals were Under 7 of the 9 times
For a -110 to ge... [More]
Posted Tuesday, October 01, 2013 12:37 PM
50 Hours for $860
Works out to $17.20 an hour
Well above both the National & California minimum wage levels
Simply by having the previous results of EVERY SINGLE 1ST Quarter, 1st Half & 2nd Half ATS
As part of our Data package (get it here)
We had cashed out the balance of our previous winnings and started all over again
On Friday 9/27 at 5:25pm we deposited $50 into our account (see below)
Web Money Transfer - WU Nicaragua//pabloz
Cash Bonus //Ref: 98186474
They gave us a $5 bonus (as the Church Lady would sat...Isn't that special!")
Sunday at 7:25pm (50 hours later) we had a balance of $910.45 an $860 increase (see below)
So we took another Payout
Payout Western Union//dorisp
Watching the 2nd Half of the Monday Night game it kind of hit us
How many of the winners that we cashed were a DIRECT RESULT of the Data
Rather than just phenomenal handicapping ability...(Hey Comic Con...now that's a REAL super power)
So we went through the “Graded Wagers” and took a look
The MNF was actually the BEST EXAMPLE
Posted Sunday, September 29, 2013 01:16 PM
When you break a football game down into 30 minutes it’s a little easier to find wagering opportunities.
Sunday’s Eagles/Broncos game is gift wrapped for SixBetsAGame.
Home team’s favored by DD should win the game. They’re the better
team. Why only cash one ticket when you can cash 3x as many. Denver and
Manning have looked like the cream of the crop so far this year. Having
them at -10.5 for the Game today looks like a solid play
That where our wagering strategy really pays off. There are games
where you can hit Six Bets by covering the 1st Half & 2nd Half as
well as your “old school” Game bets. Sometimes when a favorite gets a
big lead it can be followed by a nasty “back door cover”.
Peyton himself admitted that they’re better after the break. Our data
has allowed us to cash EVERY SINGLE WEEK this year on the Eagles.
That’s because we have Data showing that Philadelphia hasn’t covered for
the 2nd Half since last November 5th (at N.O) and have lost ATS 11
weeks in a row.
This is very close to being one of those match-ups with SixBetsAGame
where you can cash a 2-teamer with Favorite/OVER parlay 3 TIMES.
However, the OVER is 57.5 and we’ll pass just in case Denver’s the only
We’ll continue with the 2nd Half trend and also have Denver for the
1st Half & the Game looking to cash 3 tickets with 1 win.
1st Half Denver -7
Game Denver -10.5
2nd Half Denver (TBA[More]
Posted Friday, September 27, 2013 01:02 PM
Each week of the season our Data pile grows as the additional games
add pages to the NCAA spread sheet. Every team’s ATS record is important
when you’re looking for a wagering opportunity that involves only 30
minutes of a football game.
This week South Florida is back in action off a bye week. We’re still
thankful for their last game when they rolled over at home (-12) and we
had FAU on the ML (+375). Following how teams play for just the 1st Half or only during the 2nd Half requires patience to go with the Data.
Sometimes it isn’t about finding a “Winner”, when a “Loser” will work just as well.
USF hasn’t covered in 10/12 for the 1st Half and they were coming off a bye for this matchup last year before being toasted at Miami 40-9 (including a 16-3 1st Half). The line is 19 and in games where you’re giving 3 TDs we’ve seen too many things happen in the 4th
Quarter for us to bet on the entire 60 minutes. Watching a “back door
cover” when your Redshirt Sophomores start playing against the other
team’s Seniors isn’t something we want to deal with.
The “U” is “traveling” for the first time this season after three
home games and they don’t even have to leave the state. They’ve put up
three decent starts this year including scoring 14 on the Gators and
that’s a decent defense. They should win the game handily and the -19 is
worth a play as well.
We just don’t want to spend an entire 60 minutes watching South
Posted Wednesday, September 25, 2013 02:46 PM
There was nothing we could do
The helplessness was overwhelming
It was happening right in front of our eyes and we couldn’t stop them
First it was -14
A few clicks later -14.5 then -15 followed by -15.5
Finally by kickoff the line for the 2nd Half of the CSU/Alabama game had ballooned up to -16
By now most have seen the picture from Twitter
Side Bar -Follow Chas On Twitter (@2ndHalfChas)
Floyd Mayweather let everyone know that he had placed $220K on the 1st Half of last week’s SMU/AM game
All we do is talk to people everyday about the opportunities that come from 1st Half and 2nd Half bets
His ticket was an easy winner
If you had A&M for the Game (-27.5) you remember that during the 4th Q it got a little dicey where Floyd’s 1st Half wager was the easiest of winners
Sometimes the data is MORE VALUABLE in helping you decide when NOT TO BET
When you watched the 1st Half of the CSU/Ala game you saw that the Rams were outclassed in every aspect
Sure they were hanging around as the Tide didn’t even cover the 1st Half spread…but they weren’t doing anything either…Alabama was playing with them like you would with your younger brother
You don’t want to hurt him…but you ain’t gonna let him win either
Alabama was cruising to another easy victory over an over matched foe
Yet the money poured in
We all know how m... [More]
Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 06:34 PM
Similar to the Seattle spread yesterday, the amount of points Denver
is giving continues to grow as we get closer to MNF kickoff. The line
was -14 a few hours ago and in some locations is up to -16.5. Consensus
shows 2/3 willing to give 3 scores while 1/3 are taking the generous
Our experience with these types of games says tread lightly no matter
what side of the stands you’re on because although Oakland is over
matched, we NEVER feel comfortable following the public when their
pumping up the numbers.
These types of NFL games are unusual in that the spreads are more
like something you would see on Saturday. We treat them accordingly in
that we look for opportunities early in the game, make a decent size
play, cash and then watch the rest of the game to see if another
profitable situation arises later on.
This is the first season that we’re tracking 1st Quarter data. It’s
only been two weeks but this game is a case where both teams have
started slow so far this year. The visitors will be doing everything
they can to keep Manning’s Offense off the field. Eventually Denver will
score but early on we’re looking for some Polish love after a long
drive to eat up 1/2 of the 1st 15 minutes.
That’ll help us win our Under 9.5 (+110) wager on the 1st Quarter.
After that hold onto your hats we expect another Mile High Explosion. So
either way when the 1st Quarter ends will be covering the in-game line
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 08:16 PM
two years of blog posts we’ve been fairly clear on how we feel about
parlays. There is one exception where the 4-1 odds that a 2-teamer
should really pay is indeed a reality.
That’s with Money Line Parlays.
The other thing that’s great about ML wagers is that even when you
split them…you still turn a profit. Unlike the -110 of a normal straight
wager, money line wagers trade you an increased return in exchange for
Each week when we go through our spread sheets of data we’ll isolate a
few Underdogs that, on paper anyway, are the better teams yet they’re
Normally if it’s less than a TD we’ll pick two and bet them both on the ML and add a small parlay that usually pays 6/7-1.
Last week was an exception. Below is the printout:
FAU was an easy winner as a DD Dog providing us a 11.5-1 ROI.
This week Army comes into the match-up with Wake Forest 2-0 ATS so
we’ll decline the 3 points and also bet Texas San Antonio with their 6
straight wins ATS (+1) vs UTEP minus the line.
Our sports book hasn’t put the numbers out so we’ve no idea what it’ll pay when we cash. What we do know is that …
Points, we don’t need no stinkin’ points!
Always Be Cashing
2nd Half Chas
Follow Our Trends [More]
Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 05:55 PM
Our family watched Money Ball for the first time this week.
Let’s paint a clear picture.
family was on the couch watching the movie while I sat at a table on
the laptop organizing 3 different spread sheets with the movie in the
One excel file is the Up To Date ATS file which shows every NFL team and the results for their records in the 1st Quarter, 1st Half, 2nd Half and Game ATS.
Spread sheet #2 has every single point spread for the total and side for all those betting opportunities.
Final document is our program that analyzes the trends based on the data entered.
All of it combined is a ton of work.
Yet the irony of watching that movie as the data was being processed was pretty cool.
Data doesn’t lie and has no emoti... [More]
Posted Wednesday, September 11, 2013 03:22 PM
9/11 will always be a day to remember so heart felt prayers are sent out
Our first action this season used the DATA GOLD MINE we’ve created to follow the NFL pre season trends
It was the week ending Sunday 8/3 and it was a profitable one for our balance
As did the next week ending 8/10 and the week after that (8/17)
Then 8/24 & 8/31 & 9/7 all ended in the black
(Last week was our best week of the year so far)
SixBetsAGame.com has opened the season with 6 straight weeks of profitable wagering
This year started with a small Free Play the book was kind enough to dump in our account
Those initial wagers were winners and became Real Money
Posted Tuesday, September 10, 2013 12:09 PM
Our 1st Half wagers has always treated us well on Saturdays especially in games that are blowouts helping us avoid that back door cover provided by underclassmen getting "valuable" playing time
Many football games are two different contests in one
Betting The Second Half on Sundays over the last couple seasons has allowed us to be on a first name basis with the girl at the WU office where we pick up our payouts
Yesterday's MNF was a prime example (x2)
Most threads here are well done with obviously tons of research invested
Does anyone else on Covers use the opportunities provided by 1st Half & 2nd Half lines ????
As always thanks for the great insight provided elewhere
Posted Tuesday, September 10, 2013 11:57 AM
The opening week of NFL Football was a lot of fun
For many reasons
The fact that our trends went 6-2 was a big part of it
More importantly was the role we were on thanks to our data
We hit four straight 2nd Half plays to end the weekend
This last one was the easiest yet most difficult as I know the DVR was going to be painful for our in house Charger fan
If you had bet the same 4 teams for the game your record was 2-2
When there is money on the line 4-0 beats 2-2....well 4-0 pretty much always beats 2-2
Football - Houston Texans -7 -120
for 2nd Half
Football - Washington Redskins -1
-110 for 2nd Half
Football - Dallas Cowboys -½ +110
for 2nd Half
| Add a comment
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 07:53 PM
Most football fans enjoy watching a great game
Three …maybe three and a half hours and you’re done
Of course, if it’s Vicky and she’s watching a Charger’ game then it might mean an hour of football and switching to a movie
Although this year she really is confident that they’ll have a better season
The problem with football is when one day you wake up and decide that you want to make it your living
Yesterday was one of those “watch what you ask for” moments
It was the opening day for the NCAA season and every single NFL team played on the same day
The latter happens only once a year
The complete NCAA 2012 data was finally entered and less than 24 hours later we’re analyzing trends
Looking at the 42 pages that represent the entire 2012 NCAA season broken down team by team
Allows you to realize
How easy it is to analyze the same exact data and exit with a completely different conclusion
As we (and by “we” I mean our development team) work hard to get our data web site finished
Our business blends together
One involves the data
A simple file of dates, teams, numbers and formulas
Massive yes but still simple
Nothing complicated about it
Until you’re betting your “golf money”
Then it gets serious
The other is our interpretation of the same data that you might see differently
One thing for sure
There’s Gold in them there h... [More]
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 10:23 PM
Looking up quotes based on the search term “life sucks” located a ton of great thoughts
on the subject
Most, however, were anonymous
Figured if no one was gonna get credit for it …why bother
The key to making it through
When life causes a fumble
Just as you're going in to the end zone
And when you only needed a field goal to cover
Is whatever you need the key to be…faith, love, memories …
Whatever you have to do
That's what you do
We're excited about adding Twitter (2ndHalfChas) to our marketing strategy
Of course finalizing data entry is the #1 goal
Just finished entering the ENTIRE 2012 NCAA Season of over 800 games
Some of the numbers caused instant flash backs
Of course there were both good and bad memories
The next step is to break them down by teams
Then isolating trends for tomorrow’s games
As soon as we know what’s after that…you will too
Follow Our Trends
Follow Chas On Twitter... [More]
Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 04:38 PM
You know that you
are REALLY a fan
If you can watch
your favorite NFL team’s entire pre-season game from start to finish
When we starting
pulling the data from last year’s pre-season
We had no idea how
we would use it
Never mind whether
it would be valuable or not
That’s the thing
with data…it’s just information
It takes someone
with a little time and a lot of passion to bring out its true worth
Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ has merged his use of data in politics to
earn a reputation that any “tout sheet” would be proud of
The more we work on
our new web site and organizing the best way to present all the data that we pull each week
The more we realize it
might not matter
Because most everyone
that ends up using our information
Is going to see it
for what they think it says
That’s both the
beauty and the problem with data <... [More]
Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 01:39 PM
Sometimes our customers send us in questions
Our new web site is going to have an “Ask Chas” column
Because we’re pretty sure if 1 person is willing to ask it…many more are probably thinking it
One of the most common questions is on our 2nd Half trends and it goes something like this:
“Do I still bet the team in the 2nd Half if they’re getting there behind kicked and look like kids playing men?”
In other words, should I let the results in the 1st Half impact my wager in the 2nd Half?
like this are the main reason our business is transitioning from
offering just the trends to ALSO letting you manage the Data yourself
This way you can choose to use the Data any way you would like
way of looking at the Data and isolating short term trends has always
worked well when there are only 1 or 2 games on the board
Especially when you really don’t have an opinion either way but would still like to have some action
We often use the NCAA week night games to build our bankroll for the upcoming weekend
When you’re Betting The Second Half there is actually nothing more exciting then when everything in the 1st Half sets up for you perfectly
Especially when it moves the line in your favor
Late last season there was a Friday night game between Pittsburgh and Uconn
The Panthers were coming into the game having covered 3 straight 2nd Half spreads
While UConn had lost ATS aft... [More]
Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 06:08 PM
Hitting 75% of your wagers during a weekend of football betting is something to be proud of.
That’s how our trends have started in our first year of following the pre season data
But we’re sure you can do EVEN BETTER!
Maybe you think we’re kidding but we COULD NOT be more serious.
1) Dissect the data more than we do
won’t be hard because we spend SO MUCH time gathering the data that it
doesn’t leave enough time to go through it as much as we would like too!
If you break down the data into conference foes or road vs home or a bazillion different ways
You can do even better than we do
2) Spend more time analyzing the match ups
to our previous pissing and moaning you have an idea that just getting
the data into a readable format doesn’t leave us time for much else
We don’t look at injuries, pass or run defense and DEFINITELY NOT weather factors
If you really get into this data we’re sure you can consistently hit 80%
Because we’ve done it before
3) Watch more games to isolate opportunities
effort we put into pulling the data means that as soon as we get the
chance we’re out doing all the other things that we need to do to run a
house and a family
A perfect example is on Sunday afternoons…as
soon as all the early games go to half and we have all the data we need
we can run errands for around 3 hours until the later games all g... [More]