3BallBomber's Blog

Heat-Celtics breakdown

By 3BallBomber | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 08:23 PM   17 comments
I predicted initially that Boston would be small favorites considering they are the Eastern Conference Champions and last years runners up in the Finals and only lost game 7 vs LA by 4 pts with Perkins injured. Furthermore Miami are playing them on their home court so really i'm not so sure why Miami are favored in this situation considering also Boston are a proven squad and we are not. Garnette their key guy is also much healthier.

We all know Miami will be a heavy public favorite in this game and vegas knows this so why would they make it so easy to lay such small points here. I mean Miami to win by 1 pt with Wade, Lebron and Bosh??? it just seems way too easy! and would seem that line is begging for Miami action.

Based on the line alone i would say to bet Boston in this game spite of initially liking Miami before i saw the opening line.



Now let's look at last years regular season match ups:

Nov 29th:
Boston in Miami - Miami lost by 7 pts

Jan 6th:
Boston in Miami game whent into O.T. w/ Garnette injured. Miami lost by 6 pts.

FEb 3:
Miami in Boston - Miami lost by 5 pts.

Including the playoffs Miami were defeated by Boston by an average of about 6 pts (not including the blow out win in game 2). Now this is with Wade being surrounded by the chumps that he had & the shallow bench that Miami had...........


So with that said now here's the other side of the coin:

I always believed Miami were 1 go to guy/2nd option away from giving Celtics a run for their money in last seasons playoffs, i never believed Miami would defeat Boston because of their lack of PO experience but i thought Miami had a good chance to give them a fight if Wade had that 2nd option. Now that Wade finally has legitimate talent  (well Lebron and Bosh over-fills that void and then some) & considering during regular season with the squad that Miami had Celtics only beat them by an average of 6 pts surely this season Miami have a desent chance in defeating them in a regular season game with a much improved squad?



It may look easy to take Miami and seem like a trap but in fact is the right play??


We all know teams have a great respect for Wade. We've all heard Doc rivers praise Wade and how he is a very tough cover, well now Miami have Lebron & Bosh to add to that threat. In conclusion i really do like Miami to win this game but the line is telling me other wise & also think Miami's chemistry will still need to be established considering this will be their first season game........

So the 2 major things that is keeping me from pulling the trigger on Miami is the line and the fact Miami will be heavy public faves. Had Miami been 1-2 pts underdogs it would have been a different story.



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OmriKi says:
10/24/10 08:55PM
Well,when I've first read that post,I just remembered last year - first match,battle between Cleveland the untouchable team against Celtics,that was pronouncment matchm,and even tough it's a first match,Celtics won by convincing match,very comfortable team,very good spirit on the room,and the most intilligent team in the NBA in my opinion.
Ever since,we remember what happend in the regular season and the playoffs.
I think this is another chance to pronounce they are here,and ready to fight everyone,and with KG healthy,it should be more obvious,he's their heart.
Even though if Wade will play,he's still rusty,after very long vaction,and missing the pre season,I don't think he should effect Miami's match style for good.
LeBron will keep his high level,but Bosh is on my opinion little bit overrated,and his hands should be broken after that match.
Around Lebron there is not hugh crew,feels like Cleve.
I think Boston has obvious advantage here,at home to prove they are here,for at least another year.
Can't wait to see that match...
MoneySRH says:
10/24/10 08:59PM
On my post i meant to say black mamba not black mama WTF was i thinkin?

If you look at the rosters you will see that boston has the better team. Miami has 1 superstar in wade and bosh has never really done anything and lebron is a regular season superstar but in the playoffs he's a master choke artist. This game will be a playoff atmosphere type game. That means bad news for lebron and bosh has never played in any kind of pressure situation. So i have no idea how he will respond? When i think about it? It's wade and a bunch of wannabe stars. Celtics are loaded and all of them have real championship experience. 1st game in a playoff atmosphere at home on national television in the celtics house and with a loaded squad. Knowing the way boston is i expect them to play hard and shut up everyone. Think about it? Every basket that boston makes the crowd is going to go nuts. I expect the game to feel like a game 7 for the nba title. I expect tons of emotion from the crowd and the celtics. A lot of trash talk and chest bumping. I am leaning boston in this one.
3BallBomber says:
10/24/10 09:10PM

It is now Boston -1. This is how i thought it would have opened. Line opened over a month ago Miami -2.     



3BallBomber says:
10/24/10 09:25PM
I wasn't impressed with Miami during the preseason. Though it was just preseason never the less they should have focused on building chemistry instead i saw Lebron turn Miami into the Cavs with him ball hogging and forcing all sorts of shots. For a new guy on a a new team Lebron should  have focused more in getting his team mates more involved, rotating the ball more to improve the chemistry.

This may be the difference between a team such as Boston and Miami. When Boston acquired Garnette and Allen Garnette automatically improved Boston as a whole being a very unselfish player, where as Lebron seems to only want to improve himself.

I am also not very sold on Miami team as a whole. They have severe weakness in the 1 & 5 spot. Chemistry is still very much an issue. Wade is even yet to play a game with them  and he comes back in the opener against Boston of all teams.

The only upside i see to even thinking about backing Miami in this spot is Miami/Big 3 having much to prove and i'm sure they can't wait to shut doubters up by winning their first preseason game especially also because they are facing the Celtics. The other factor is Wade, Wade has a will that has carried Miami. He has carried Miami to the PO's when they had absolutely no business being there with the sort of team he had. And like i stated i felt all Wade needed was a 2nd option in the playoffs last season for Miami to give Boston troubles. Now with a highly improved squad only time will tell the sort of success Wade and Miami will have this season.



But again Chemistry is the only real concern with this team, the same chemistry we all know Boston has down pat!!!
3BallBomber says:
10/24/10 09:27PM

that's probably the right thing to do here............but i want to murder this game for some reason.
3BallBomber says:
10/24/10 10:08PM

over all i also feel Boston has the advantage here. Too many questions in regards to Miami.

But, i disagree about Bosh, yet he may be over rated but i feel he is the foundation for this team. He was the only player on this roster that impressed me during the preseason.

Also i advice to not question Wade and wether he is ready for his first game. He has been waiting for this opportunity for 4 years, 4 years in which he has been doubted, highly criticized and over-looked - i can guarantee you he is more than ready for this game!!!!



3BallBomber says:
10/24/10 10:12PM
I feel The line is where it should be right now. Miami should have never been favored for this match up.

Would be good to see more line movement before game time and anticipating which side most of the money is coming in.
aireent777 says:
10/24/10 11:18PM
baseonstat says:
10/25/10 12:01AM
vegas wants us to take the heat because the line is in favored of the heat with wade,james,and bosh together. It's like a trap game. But would they deliver? HELL NO. Celtics have the most defensive player kevin garnett. and add shquille to that, defense is more improved. 

So i'll take celtics on this one 
baseonstat says:
10/25/10 12:07AM
plus the injuries,, boston is a more healthier team. but it doesnt matter,, 

' think boston would win this one by 10...


baseonstat says:
10/25/10 12:08AM
can't wait to watch the game, sure it'll be close at first, but boston will take over,, (more experienced as a whole)
Raiderpug says:
10/25/10 03:41AM

Its only one game and of course anything can happen but do you really think Boston will allow themselves to be the first team to lose to the new Heat? Three years of playing for championships vs. three weeks. That is FN motivation, Sir!

poundthatbaby says:
10/25/10 04:06PM
Just curious, but wasn't the spread for this game (Celtics +4) like last month ???
3BallBomber says:
10/25/10 10:38PM
I saw it @ Miami -2 a month ago. Not sure if it was ever that high.
Bobbys_pregame says:
10/26/10 09:54AM
check out LeBrons pre-season workouts on youtube
he looks super fit and ready to take the NBA to it's pinacle holy grail.........................LeBron will beat the Celtics by himself so how the hell can you possibly take the Celtics!

And the pre-season games you mentioned are even more reason to back Miami as they won't let that recent stat turn into a motivational factor for the Celtics in the regular season.
And why all the love for Garnett he is now done and it showed last season. He no longer has the leaping ability to compete with the youth and is not much faster than Shaq.
Wade could score 40 and the other 2 guys 25 and that's just the three of them.

Miami Heat
Bobbys_pregame says:
10/26/10 09:57AM
the total is set that high as Miami will become a scoring machine and it's just another little secret the bookies have given us as to whom they feel will win as the Celtics will struggle to score over 86 points.
Bobbys_pregame says:
10/26/10 10:01AM
can't see the Heat winning by 15 more like 8-10 point win
95-86 final score...like the under
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