44-dimes's Blog
Posted Thursday, February 09, 2012 07:22 AM
YTD 42-27 ( +28.75 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 9-3
2u 10-12
1u 20-11
LAKERS +3.5 ( 3 units )
I've roughed up this team so much this year that I practically fade them any time their laying significant chalk so how ironic is it that I'm on the Lake show today. Well eventually i have to find a few spots in the schedule where I can back this team as a Dog any I think today is a better time than any !! Look at Celtics last 5 wins ! All against teams with losing records. 5 wins but only managed to get the cover in 2 of them. They shoot over 50% against the Bobcats last game and only win by 10 points. Like Shania Twain's song says "" DON'T IMPRESS ME MUCH" The Lakers are in the middle of a 7 game East coast swing but are playing on 3 days rest. The Lakers are going to make this a half court game and simply clean up in the post. You got the #1 ranked team in the Lakers in rebounds playing Boston who is ranked dead last on the boards.
GOOD LUCK EVERBODY. THIS IS MY ONLY BET TODAY. I LIKE IT. GOING 3U ON THIS ONE.
Posted Wednesday, February 08, 2012 05:43 PM
YTD 41-26 ( +28.80 )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 9-3
2u 10-12
1u 19-10
ATLANTA -3 ( 1 unit )
After starting the season 7-1 at home the Hawks have lost 3 straight and are trying to avoid getting swept on this current home stand. A couple of problems here teams are shooting a high percentage against them and Jeff Teague is losing every point guard matchup. I really don't have any solid angles that support this play except for a single revenge situation back on Jan 11. I Normally hate to lay points when a team is struggling and i did check some of the Hawks blogs to see if they held a players only meeting. It's a feel good play more than anything else and i think the Hawks will snap this losing streak. By the way it's been over 3 years since they lost more than 3 in a row at home and the Pacers usually struggle in Atlanta for whatever it's worth.
PORTLAND -7 ( 1 unit )
I'm betting a solid home team against a Rockets team that does not fare well on the road. The Trailblazers are 5th on my home court value ratings, only MIA,SA,CHI and OKLA CITY are ahead of Portland. In my opinion Portland's worth 6 points at home and I'm guessing their about 2 points better than Houston on Neutral court therefore this line is pretty much accurate. if anything Portland should be a -8 so I'm gonna stick to a 1 unit wager on this one
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
Posted Tuesday, February 07, 2012 07:25 AM
YTD 41-25 ( +31.95 )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 9-2
2u 10-12
1u 19-10
CLEVELAND +13 ( 3 units )Best Bet
I really like this play, I'm going 3u on this one. Fading the Heat as a significant size favorite has been money this year, and it really makes sense when you think about it. The ultimate goal for Miami is winning a Championship and not covering spreads as their 10-14 ATS record indicates. Their chalk is often over inflated and they don't get the job done especially agaisnt the bottom feeders. There are different circumstances for every game. When you look at their 20 point win at Philadelphia last week they played that game with revenge bringing their A game on the court. I'm looking at Miami's last 5 games against teams with losing records.
VS TOR W BY 6
AT MIL L BY 8
VS NO W BY 14
VS NY W BY 10
VS DET W BY 3
VS CLE W BY 7
As recent as Jan 24 they were a 14 point favorite against the Cavs and only won by 7. Miami is will be looking ahead to an 8 game road starting tomorrow at Orlando. This is good time for Spoelstra to rotate his bench and keep the Big 3 rested for the up coming road trip. FINAL MIA 95 CLE 88
good luck guys this is my only bet today.
Posted Monday, February 06, 2012 12:09 AM
YTD 40-23 ( +33.05 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 9-2
2u 9-11
1u 19-9
PHILADELPHIA -3.5 ( 2 units )
Sixers have been a covering machine 11-4 ats at home . Eventually i think this number will regress , I just can't see them finishing 48-18 because the chalk will increase against the bottom teams but anything under points 6 points against a sub .500 team like the Lakers who are beginning an east coast swing is worth a bet. This Philadelphia team is so well coached , they play defense like every trip down is a 2 pt game and their guards ( Holiday,Meeks and Williams ) all have excellent range, these guys make their shots. They have some quality wins at home against some very good teams. I see this number closing at -4.5.
NEW JERSEY + 9 ( 2 units )
The Nets are a live dog today. They've been steadily improving against the number. Their last 3 losses have been in the single digit range. They were a 13.5 point dog only a couple of weeks ago against this same Chicago team. So getting 9 today is well worth the value in my opinion. I grade Chicago's home court value at 6.5 so i think this line should of been set at 7. This happens frequent in the NBA. Teams that win SU on a regular basis are often over valued because the Public will bet them blindly with no regards to the point spread.
PORTLAND + 1 ( 1 unit )
The Trailblazers a HOME DOG. I LIKE IT I LIKE IT !!!!!!
Good luck guys.
Posted Saturday, February 04, 2012 09:03 AM
YTD 38-23 ( +30.05 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 9-2
2u 8-11
1u 18-9
CHARLOTTE +10 ( 2 units )
UTAH -1 ( 1 unit )
Two wagers for me today. That's gonna be it. Good luck guys, have a great Saturday. Heading out with the family for a few hours. I will reply to all discussion later.
Posted Friday, February 03, 2012 05:32 PM
YTD 36-22 ( +26.10 u )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 8-2
2u 7-11
1u 18-8
DETROIT +4.5 ( 3 units ) Best Bet
I've been following what teams do in their next game after beating the Heat. Why is this relevant ? The Heat have 6 losses this season ATL,GS,CLIP,DEN and MIL twice. Only once in 6 tries has a team won it's next game after beating Miami.
The Bucks fall nicely into this situational angle. There is a Maximum letdown in play here. A 3-0 home stand ,rallying back from an 18 point deficit and now facing a team that is seeking for a 21 point drubbing last Monday. This has caused the oddsmakers to adjust this line a little higher than it should be.
The Bucks were a 7 point favorite last Monday at home and just 4 days later they are a 4.5 point favorite on the road. That's an 11.5 point swing in a matter of four days. WAY TOO MANY POINTS !!
THE PISTONS ARE THE PLAY.
NEW -YORK +6.5 ( 2 units )
DALLAS -4.5 ( 1 unit )
Good luck everybody
Posted Thursday, February 02, 2012 07:27 AM
YTD 34-22 ( +23.10 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 8-2
2u 6-11
1u 17-8
MEMPHIS +4 ( 2 units )
This angle has been very good to me the past few years. It goes as follows !! Fade a team team coming back home playing it's first game following an extending road trip , in which the team has played at least 4 away games within a week. There are several reasons why teams don't fire in their first game back. The Hawks fall into this situation so the play is on Memphis tonight.
DENVER +2 ( 1 unit )
The Clip have had an unfavorable road trip the past 10 days playing H/R/H/R/H/R and now back home coming off a road win playing the Nuggets who are in a revenge situation.
good luck
Posted Tuesday, January 31, 2012 06:00 PM
YTD 33-22 ( +20.10 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 7-2
2u 6-11
1u 17-8
SACRAMENTO +7.5 ( 3 units )
I know that Sacramento has had a tough time playing on the road, but you gotta take a look at who they played. 10 out of their 12 road games have come against teams with winning records. The only two current sub .500 teams they have faced this year on the road are Toronto and Minnesota. So i gotta give them a little slack.
They go up against the Warriors today who have been a chalk in only 4 out of 18 games. Nothing higher than a MINUS 4. Maximum overlay on the Warriors and i think I'm gonna take advantage of this. It's a division game and the value play here is Sacramento.
Good luck Guys. This is my only play today
Posted Monday, January 30, 2012 05:45 PM
YTD 32-20 ( +22.30 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-1
3u 7-2
2u 5-9
1u 17-8
GOY 0-0
GOM 0-0
GOW 3-1
Game of the Week was a bust last night with the T-Wolves but overall the day was a wash. I went 3-1 with the winners being SA,CLE and CLIP.
Lakers shot 50% from the field and Rubio couldn't hit the side of a barn. Pretty much the story of the game.
PORTLAND -1.5 ( 2 units )
This line has moved significantly today due to Al Jefferson being a scratch. He's the go to guy in the paint and i think the Jazz will miss him tonight. Normally I won't sucker myself into taking a game that's moved 4 points but when the line moves from a +2 to a -2 it's not that a big deal in comparison to a -2 and a -6. The Blazers are only 3-7 on the road this season and this team eventually has to win some games away from home They have great home court chemistry, I just wish they would carry that on the road.
OKLAHOMA CITY -2 ( 2 units )
Playing the better team here on the road and laying a very reasonable number. It's been a 72 hour rest period for the Thunder which is very rare these days in the NBA. This team will have fresh legs tonight.
SAN ANTONIO +6 ( 2 units )
This isn't a team that i was focusing on playing in B2B situations this year but what Popovich did yesterday sitting the entire starting 5 mid way through the third and letting his bench play the rest of the game should serve as a huge wake up call. Even when the Spu...
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Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 02:14 PM
I've never seen a Hockey All-STAR game total this high. Most books opened this total at 18 and it's been bet up to 19.5 with the Over juiced.
I remember as far back as the late 80's early 90's the total in the All star game would be around 12.5.
Obviously the game has changed since then, with big contracts and players getting seriously injured over the past few years the priority now is that no one gets hurt. I fully understand.
Carey Price made an intresting remark yesterday during the skills competition. "" I don't care if anyone scores on me , this is good for the fans".
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR WAGERS GUYS
Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 10:35 AM
YTD 29-19 ( +22.50 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 7-2
2u 4-9
1u 15-8
MINNESOTA -1.5 ( 4 units ) Game of the Week
As long as i think I'm getting favorable lines betting against the Lakers I will gladly fade this team into the ground until the odds makers realize how unworthy this team is of a decent point spread recognition.
I was on the Bucks last night and I had several posters in my thread commenting on how the Bucks have no chance because Bogut is out and it will be Gasol and Bynum all day in the paint. My reply was this !! If you have two front court 7 footers your practically gonna win every match up situation regardless of what team you face. Kobe takes more shots than Bynam and Gasol combined. They are near the bottom of the league from the 3 point line. Kobe has no desire to learn Mike Browns system that's why he's taking 25-30 shots a game. The Nba has become a point guard league and the Lakers don't have a true point guard. You shouldn't be laying points on the road with a less than mediocre bench against a team at home that sports a winning record.
This is the angle that made this play my game of the Week. The Lakers are 1-4 SU and ATS when playing B2B with the second game being on the road.
AT SAC LOST 100-91
AT DEN LOST 99-90
AT UTAH WON 90-87
AT CLIP LOST 102-94
AT ORL LOST 92-80
ALSO PLAYING----------------------
CLEVELAND +7 ( 2 units )
SAN ANTONIO +5 ( 1 unit )
CLIPPERS +6.5 ( 1 unit )
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Posted Saturday, January 28, 2012 08:43 AM
YTD 28-18 ( +22.65 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 6-1
2u 4-9
1u 15-8
MILWAUKEE +5 ( 3 units )
The Lakers aren't worthy of being a 5 point favorite on the road. NO WAY !! Based on my Home/Road power rating skid the Bucks should be a 1 point favorite in this game. The adjustment by the books here is based on Milwaukee playing B2B and 5 of 7. The Lake show will be on the road in 8 out of their next 9 games This is one of my better games this year. Going 3u on this one.
CHARLOTTE +1.5 ( 3 units )
I'm not very high on revenge angles this year basically because teams are paying a whole lot of games bunched together but in this case the the revenge spot is within a week so I'll exempt this angle and take the Bobcats who lost to Washington by 17 points on Wednesday. These are the numbers of Wizards losses on the back end of a road game BY 21,18 and 31. This is also a 3 unit game for me.
Good luck everybody have a great Sports Gambling weekend
Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 12:02 AM
YTD 28-16 ( +25.80 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 6-1
2u 4-8
1u 15-7
GOY 0-0
GOM 0-0
GOW 3-0
CLEVELAND -3 ( 2 units )
I doubt the spread will come in play here. The Cavs should easily cover this number and as a matter of fact i think this line will close around -4 or -4.5. The Nets have 13 losses this year and 10 of them have been in the DD range. They aren't very deep and will only compete if Williams and Morrow get hot. The Nets lead the league in 3pt attempts at 25.6 per game , which is not a good thing. This is about 8 attempts higher than the league average and it usually means your playing catch up most of the game.
SA / MIN OVER 196.5 ( 1 unit )
These teams played a 106-96 game earlier this year and the posted total in that game is identical to what it is today. I think the number will hit 198 by game time and I see no reason why this game should not go over once again.
Good luck
Posted Wednesday, January 25, 2012 07:30 AM
YTD 27-16 ( +23.80 units )
2-0 last night. A much needed comeback. Restore some confidence.
MINNESOTA +6 ( 2 units )
The Timberwolves are one of the few teams in the league with a losing SU 7-10 record but a winning ATS record of 10-7. At one point during the season they reeled off 5 straight COVERS AS A DOG against some very good teams.Simply a team that you can't overlook when getting points. The T-Wolves are currently riding a 2 game losing streak and face the Dallas Mavericks who have won 3 in a row and will be without Dirk Nowitzki for tonights game. Marion filled in for him last game but i don't expect him to go off for 29 points again.
Good luck Guys. This is my only bet today.
Posted Tuesday, January 24, 2012 04:56 PM
YTD 25-16 (+21.80 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 6-1
2u 3-8
1u 13-7
I rarely rant about my losses but yesterday was a brutal loss with Golden st. There's always one or two games per Nba betting season that are tough to swallow. Golden st was one of them.
I know a lot of the covers guys here were on the Warriors last night.
We take the loss move on and plan ahead.
If you were fortunate enough to be on the Grizzlies. I would refrain from complaining about any game that might hose you this week. Count your blessings.
TORONTO +6 ( 1 unit )
PORTLAND -5.5 ( 1 unit )
Two plays for me today
Good luck everybody
Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 06:07 PM
YTD 25-15 ( +22.85 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 6-1
2u 3-8
1u 13-6
GOLDEN ST -2 ( 1 unit )
If you look at this game from a smart chart perspective, you can see that Memphis is better than Golden State in just about every offensive statistical category except from the three point line. The oddsmakers have already tipped me off here by making the Warriros a small favorite. What i mean in they just might be asking us to bet Memphis. The Grizzlies are currently riding a 6 game win streak. I've mentioned this before on a previous thread. Were not going to see to many extending win streaks this NBA season. I expect the Warriors who are on a 2 game losing skid to bounce back tonight after a heart breaking loss at home against the Pacers. Curry said he felt great after the Pacers game so no health issues here. This is a much better team than it's 5-10 record indicates.
gl
Posted Sunday, January 22, 2012 12:18 PM
Good afternoon Gentlemen
I haven't taken anything the past couple of days simply because i just can't find anything to my liking but i had circled the Bucks as a possible play. I thought or at least was hoping to get +11.5 or 12 in this game. The Letdown angle is in play here but not at this ridiculous spread.
If you consider the Heat were 7 point chalk agaisnt the Sixers and Spurs this week then today's pointspread against the Bucks is not very favorable towards the dog. I'm pretty sure Erik Spoelstra is going 11 deep today and rotate the bench as much as he can
Also consider this !! Miami has won it's last 3 games by a combined 54 points. 6-0 without Wade ! James is going off for 30 every game and Milwauke has only 1 road win.
ODDSMAKERS ARE MAKING IT TOUGH
Of course this is my opinion. I'm hanging in there. We will make money. Patients equals profits.
GOOD LUCK ON YOUR GAMES TODAY EVERYONE.
Posted Thursday, January 19, 2012 11:48 PM
YTD 24-14 ( +23.95 units )
ATLANTA +6 ( 2 units )
I don't want to take anything away from the sixers 6-1 ATS home record but you do have to take a look of whom they beat. Five of those teams were Wash,Mil,Sac,Det and Tor. They lost outright against the Nuggets and beat the Pacers by 10. They've been a chalk in all 7 home games ranging from -6 to -13 virtually agaisnt teams with losing records. So are they worthy of being a 6 point favorite. According to my charts not against the Hawks. ATLANTA IS THE PLAY HERE.
MEMPHIS -3.5 ( 1 unit )
I seldom lay points on the road but I gotta make an exception here. This is reasonable price considering the Pistons are the worst team in the league, or at least in my opinion. No chemistry whatsoever. Their best player just might be Greg Monroe who gets his ass kicked in the post. The pistons average home margin of loss is 15.4 points a game.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE. I MIGHT ADD A FEW MORE GAMES WAITNG FOR THE THE REST OF THE LINES TO COME OUT. WILL POST THEM ON THIS THREAD
Posted Wednesday, January 18, 2012 07:13 AM
YTD 22-14 ( +20.95 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 6-1
2u 2-7
1u 11-6
ATLANTA -1.5 ( 2 units )
These teams are pretty much even on multiple power ratings, but if you consider that home court is worth anywhere between 3 to 6 points that would mean laying -1.5 with the Hawks is reasonably fair. The kicker here is that they catch Portland on a 4/6 on the Road.
SACRAMENTO +6 ( 1 unit )
Yes that's right !! I'm chasing the Sac of Potatoes once again. This might be a stubborn bet more than anything else but at 6 points I Just can't pass up the value of a home dog.
gl
Posted Sunday, January 15, 2012 10:08 PM
YTD 20-12 ( +22.10 units )
5u 0-0
4u 3-0
3u 6-1
2u 2-6
1u 9-5
Game of the Week 3-0
Game of the Month 0-0
GOY 0-0
I thought I'd post my games early since there are some afternoon games tomorrow.
SACRAMENTO +7.5 ( 2 units )
The Kings are coming off a game in which they scored 60 points and shot a stunning 25% from the field. Flat is probably an understatement. This team is under achieving . The last game at Dallas was an embarrassment. I expect a much better performance today. The question i ask myself ! Are the T-WOLVES a team that is ready to be laying 7.5 points. They are 7-4 ATS but 2-2 when laying points. They laid 6.5 against the Cavs and 4.5 against Memphis and lost both games straight up. This number 7.5 is an all time high for Minnesota and a comes against a desperate team. I can't help myself here but to take the dog.
WASHINGTON +5.5 ( 1 unit )
This is not a good spot for the Rockets who are 1-6 on the road. This game is sandwiched in between 5 home games.
CLEVELAND +2 ( 1 unit )
Obviously the wrong favorite in my opinion. The reason why the oddsmakers decided to make the Bobcats a favorite is because the Cavs are playing their 7th straight road game. It actually isn't that bad because it's been over a 13 day period and when you consider we do have some 9 game in 12 night situations this season I'm going to dismiss this as an excuse for a young upcoming ...
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Posted Saturday, January 14, 2012 08:12 AM
YTD 18-11 ( +17.15 units )
5u 0-0
4u 2-0
3u 6-1
2u 1-6
1u 9-4
CLIPPERS -2.5 ( 4 units )Game of the Week
''Let the Battle for LA begin"" It should read more like ""Changing of the Guard" As soon as the schedule came out for 2012 tonight's game has become one of the most anticipated match ups of year.
After getting a beat down for several years it's time for payback.
By installing the Clippers as a -2.5 point favorite in practically a neutral court game the odds makers have distinguished the better team. " Of course no surprise to me" Actually i would of made the Clip joint -4 in this game.
Match up problems for the Clippers ?? None whatsoever.
This team can play defense. When it counted they held the Heat to 3 points in Overtime on Wednesday. Jordan is becoming one of the best shot blockers in the league.
Absolutely no letdown here by the Clippers. They win this game by DD's. Last but not least they catch the Lakers on a 4 games in 5 nights situation.
UTAH -8.5 ( 2 units )
SACRAMENTO +12 ( 1 unit )
Good luck have a nice Weekend. It's getting up here.
Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 08:31 AM
YTD 17-11 ( +15.15 units )
5u 0-0
4u 2-0
3u 6-1
2u 0-6
1u 9-4
CLEVELAND +7 ( 2 units )
A possible outright win ! It wouldn't surprise me at all. Both teams have identical records 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS. Even the PF/PA and FG% are strikingly similar. This is the 5th game of a current 7 game road trip for the Cavs. They have a SU win at Minnesota a single digit loss against the Jazz ( IN A GAME WHERE THEY WERE A 5 PT DOG ) Hence today's value at +7 !! and they were on the back end of two blowouts. The good thing here is that none of these games were played B2B there has been a rest day in between each road game. So tiredness shouldn't be an excuse. Taking the Cavs today in what i think should be a close game here. The Suns are coming off 2 lopsided victory's against the Trailblazers and Bucks at home and then getting crushed at Staples Center in their last game.I've noticed a little trend developing here in the 2012 season where teams are putting 2 good games and 2 bad games within a weeks sequence. Could be many reasons for this, but the most obvious one is the condensed schedule.
Good luck Guys, This is my only play today.
Posted Monday, January 09, 2012 11:19 PM
YTD 15-10 ( +13.25 units )
5u 0-0
4u 2-0
3u 5-1
2u 0-5
1u 8-4
WASHINGTON -1.5 ( 3 units ) POD
The Wizards are desperately seeking a win and i couldn't think of better game than this one here today against the Raptors.
Four games in 5 nights for Toronto and this road game here is sandwiched in between two home games.
The Wizards actually haven't played too bad at home. They are 0-4 but if you exclude the home opener against the T-Wolves their other 3 home losses have been by a combined 17 points.
This isn't a good spot for the Raptors. I've seen this play out with this Toronto team way too many times. A big home win the previous night and they just flatline versus a sub .500 team the following day.
SACRAMENTO + 10 ( 2 units )
The sixers came through for me last night but it's about time they don't cover a spread. At 7-1 ATS you gotta start looking the other way this number will eventually regress. 76ers home wins have been against Toronto,Detroit and a Granger less Pacers team.
UTAH -5 ( 1 unit )
Surprise !! Surprise!! Only -5. What am i missing here ?
Jazz 4-0 at home. I seriously doubt that Cleveland will be the team to hand Utah it's first home court loss.My only concern here is getting the cover.
good luck everyone------------Let's keep the grind going.
Posted Monday, January 09, 2012 07:23 AM
YTD 14-10 +12.25 ( units )
PHILADELPHIA -4.5 ( 1 unit )
Small wager for me today on the Sixers. I capped this spread at about 6. One of the better early season ATS teams thus far. I don't see a let down not quite just yet.
gl
Posted Sunday, January 08, 2012 09:33 AM
YTD 14-9 ( +15.4 units )
5u 0-0
4u 2-0
3u 5-0
4u 0-5
1u 7-4
SACRAMENTO +6.5 ( 3 units )POD
From a point spread value perspective ! I think this number is correct. After all the Kings have been on the opposite side of three plus 20 point blowouts. So there is a valid reason why they are getting 6.5 points.
What is in play here is the new coach angle! Westphal gets fired and it looked as if this team changed it's spark plugs.
A 21 point comeback in their last game with 3 player season highs to boot. Thorton 27 points, Evans 10 boards and CRY BABY COUSINS also had a season high with 15 rebounds.
Westphal benched Demarcus on 2 occasions and after Keith Smarts first game as the Kings coach. I can quote Cousins as saying """I FELT FREE OUT THERE, IT JUST FELT GOOD TO BE ON THE COURT"" I'm not sure if Smart is the long term answer for this team but since this is only his second game as head coach. Well then this is a fresh new coach angle which will have some short term effect SACRAMENTO becomes the WISE GUY WAGER OF THE DAY.
good luck everybody
AND WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE PRAY FOR TEBOW