NUGGETS @ LAKERS

YTD  4-3 ( +3.75 units )

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 1-0
2u 0-2
1u 2-1

GOW 1-0
GOM 0-0
GOY 0-0

DENVER +5.5 ( 3 units )

Gentlemen it's time to fade the Lakers !!  This is a Home and Home against the Nuggets and I'll probably end up taking the dog in both games. That's only if the Nuggets get the win today.
Let's start with this afternoons game!  Lakers are on a current L2/W2 streak and I've seen this too many times before. Los Angeles gets on a little roll and the point spread doctor gets a little too generous. If you consider that the Lakers were a 5 point dog opening night at home against the Bulls and  five games into the season they are a 5.5 point favorite versus the Nuggets. HOLD ON A MINUTE HERE.
IS CHICAGO 10 POINTS BETTER THAN DENVER ON NEUTRAL COURT.  We all know that Mike Brown puts a big emphasis on a half court game, that's why all 4 Laker games have stayed under the total but the Nuggets are one of the best transition teams in the league. Denver has played the Lakers tough of late. Especially at Staples Center.  Bynum is back for the Lakeshow but Nene can hold is own in the paint.


Good luck guys. This will be my only play today.

12/30 """"""NBA GAME OF THE WEEK"""""

YTD 2-3 ( -1.25 units )

5u 0-0
4u 0-0
3u 1-0
2u 0-2
1u 1-1


MINNESOTA +8 ( 4 units )Game of the Week

Here's my take on a foreseeable  angle in this condensed season. I just can't see any significant SU or ATS winning streaks developing  partly because most teams will be playing 8 or 9 games over a 14 day period. Fatigue and perhaps the desire to play hard on a day to day basis is the common denominator.  A couple of early season examples are the Spurs and the Heat.
San Antonio started the season 2-0 winning by a combined 37 points shooting lights out against the Clip at the same time hitting over 40% from beyond the arc in both games. Last night the Spurs go into Houston as a 3 point chalk and they couldn't make a trey to save their life
What I'm focusing on today is FADING THE HEAT.  I DON'T THINK THIS TEAM WILL HAVE A WINNING ATS BY SEASONS END.
The are currently 3-0 SU 1-2 ATS with wins against DALL,BOS and CHA.
Considering they were an 11 point favorite in CHARLOTTE in a game they should of lost. Well getting 8 points in MINNESOTA seems like a bargain to me. THE YOUNG UPSTART T-WOLVES HAVE PLAYED WELL AND  ARE HUNGRY.

CHICAGO +1 ( 1 unit )


GL EVERYONE

((( NBA THURSDAY )))

YTD 1-2 ( -3.2 units )

5u 0-0
4u 0-0
3u 0-0
2u 0-2
1u 1-0


HOUSTON +2 ( 3 units ) POD
I'm hoping this might be the right situation to fade the Spurs.

NEW JERSEY +12 ( 1 unit )


BOL

CAUTION GOLDEN ST BACKERS ?? CURRY IS OUT

Most books opened the NICKS as a 2.5 point favorite the line has being moving up all day. It has settled at -5 or -5.5 as of now and  this is because Stephen Curry will be a scratch for today's game.
Oddsmakers value Curry at about 2.5 points which sounds right to me.

He's a big part of their offense and I'd hate to be on GS today. This poor kid has got some bad ankles.

good luck guys, No bets for me today.

JAZZ @ LAKERS

YTD 1-1 ( -1.1 units )

5u 0-0
4u 0-0
3u 0-0
2u 0-1
1u 1-1

UTAH +4.5 ( 2 units )
We don't have to reach too much into the handicapping bag of tricks here. I'm going to fade the first B2B2B situation of the season. Lakers simply don't have the depth or desire to go up against a young team with fresh legs. This Laker team is in serious decline.

gl

((( NBA MONDAY )))

YTD 0-0
 
5u 0-0
4u 0-0
3u 0-0
2u 0-0
1u 0-0

Have a great season guys!!!
MILWAUKEE -3 ( 2 units )
A short price here. This is a bad Charlotte team going up against a very good defensive team in the Bucks.
Milwaukee will start the season with a healthy line up. I love the starting 5 along with addition of Jackson. Excellent backcourt with a good front line. Jennings looked good in Milwaukee's first 2 pre season games.This is an underlay at -3. The Bucks win big.

NEW ORLEANS +6.5 ( 1 unit )
A smaller play on New Orleans for me today as well. I think the departure of CP3 might of unintentionally inflated the Suns point spread value as a favorite on opening night for both teams.

good luck

3 Games in 3 Nights ( Wagering strategies )

How should we approach this unfamiliar scenario ! When teams play their 3rd game in  3 consecutive nights ??

There will be 42 betting opportunities this season starting with the Lakers when teams will be playing BACK TO BACK TO BACK.

The 50 game  shortened season of 1999 is the only time when the NBA deferred to this sort of schedule. I don't have any point spread data from that  season to see if any kind of betting pattern developed on a specific teams 3rd game in 3 nights.

A practical betting strategy would probably be to fade the team playing B2B2B or even lean towards the Under when two teams are involved in this scenario. I'd be very cautious blindly betting this because the odds makers will adjust accordingly. There will also be a few 9 games in 12 night situations and this has never happened in the NBA. Not even in 1999. Something to pay attention to.

Here's my take on this !!!!
I would lean towards fading some of the older line ups like the Celtics and the Spurs. I'd also be looking to fade a a team that's playing a B2B2B on the ROAD in comparison to playing at Home. Perhaps betting against a DD favorite covering the first two games and also being installed as a DD chalk for game 3.
I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that the play will be sloppy due to fatigue. Coaches will be going to the bench a lot more on a B2B2B and you have to able to identify which teams have stronger back ups.

I'D ... [More]