44-dimes's Blog
Posted Tuesday, April 03, 2012 04:20 PM
YTD 80-67 ( +20.05 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 13-11
2u 29-10
1u 34-32
PHOENIX ML -130 ( 3 units )
I'd never make this play if the Suns weren't in the playoff hunt. Phoenix is 10-15 away from home but 13 out of the 15 losses have come against teams that currently have winning records. They are rested and the Kings did play last night so this is a nice spot to pick up a much needed road win. I laid -130 and took this game on the ML. Not overly pricey. I jus't hate laying points on the road with teams that aren't playing over .500.
CHARLOTTE +9 ( 2 units )
The Raptors are 29-22-1 ats but only 5-4 ats as a favortie. That means they've only been a chalk in 9 out of 52 situations and mostly in the ( -1 to -4 range ) The previous high was a -7 back on 2/17 against this very same team the Charlotte Bobcats. The Bobcats won outright 98-91. Actually Charlotte has beaten the Raptors twice this year and both times shot over 50% from the field, thats 9 percentage points higher than their season average. Magette is out for today but i think Reggie Williams is more than capable of filling in. Charlotte will go small today, but that's fine.
NEW JERSEY +9 ( 1 unit )
The Lakers are 2-8 ats when laying 8 or more points. It was pretty much the same last year as a big chalk , throw in the condensed schedule this season it becomes a... [More]
Posted Sunday, April 01, 2012 09:23 AM
YTD 79-67 ( +18.05 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 13-11
2u 28-20
1u 34-32
INDIANA +4 ( 2 units )
It's been somewhat challenging and at often times very difficult to cap a team like the Pacers. Just a week ago they beat Miami and Milwaukee by a combined 36 points. Since then they've droped two of three and have failed to get the cover in three strtaight. The pacers are 13-20 ats as a favorite but a modest 10-8 as an underdog. This situational trend simply suggests fade as a chalk and play as a dog. They barely missed the cover last night but played well against the Spurs and shot 53% from the field. Rockets playing solid basketball despite missing Lowry and Martin but I'll take the Pacers in this one. The only concern here is 4/5 for Indiana but they have a clean slate on the injury list. Pacers are very deep in the Guard psoition ( George,Collison,Hill and Barbosa) a huge edge against the Rockets injury riddled backcourt right now.
GOOD LUCK
Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 07:02 AM
YTD 78-66 ( +17.10 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 13-11
2u 27-20
1u 34-31
NEW JERSEY +4 ( 2 units )
Home court value jus't isn't worth anything for the Warriros right now. This team is in shambles. Laying points against anyone is a crime. They have no Legit Center and none of these guys ( LEE,THOMPSON,ROBERSTON,WRIGHT ) play any defense or bang bodies in the paint, this is why why their dead last in the league in allowing rebounds at over 46 per game. The Hornets shot 54% from the field agasint the Warrirs last game imagine that. I can't pass up a play on the Nets.
CHARLOTTE +8.5 ( 1 unit )
Once again tonight they'll find another way to cover. I took them at +6.5 against the Celtics Monday so I'm certainly gonna take them getting +8.5 versus the Nuggets. ""SAY IT AIN'T SO"" but i got the Bobcats again.
GOOD LUCK,DRIVE SAFE HAVE A NICE WEEKEND!!!
Posted Thursday, March 29, 2012 07:26 AM
YTD 77-66 ( +14.10 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 12-11
2u 27-20
1u 34-31
OKLAHOMA CITY +1 ( 3 units )
If you go by the closing line Oklahoma City has been a dog only once in 50 games this season. Arguably this is the best team in the NBA. It looks like this team has reached it's peak. They've outscored their opponnent by a combined 62 points in their last 4 games and two of those teams were Miami and the Clippers. The stat that's mind blowing during that streak is that they've shot over 50% in all 4 games. Something that hasn't been done be any team this year. ( MIA and CHI have done it 3 in row). Absolutely no reason for a thunder let down in this spot. No chance not against the Lakers. According to my numbers the Thunder should be a -2 in this game. Regardless i would of bet Oklahoma City as a favorite. FINAL SCORE OKLA CITY 105 LAKERS 96
good luck
Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 05:05 PM
YTD 76-64 ( +17.35 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 12-10
2u 26-19
1u 34-31
0-5 run --Hit the wall early this week. Didn't play anything last night. Going with 3 games today. Hopefully i can break out of this mini slump.
ORLANDO -1.5 ( 3 units )
CHARLOTTE +5.5 ( 2 units )
GOLDEN ST -2 ( 2 units )
Good luck everybody. Thoughts, comments always welcome.
Posted Monday, March 26, 2012 07:29 AM
YTD 76-61 ( +22.60 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 12-9
2u 26-19
1u 34-29
Crapped out last night 0-2 ( Tough loss with the Jazz)
NEW JERSEY -1 ( 3 units )
The Nets by default. Not only did the Jazz play a B2B2B but you might even be able to say they played 4 games in 3 nights. The line has already been adjusted from overnight. The Jazz went from a 2.5 point favorite to a 1 point dog. I already expected this and i don't have a problem with it. The Utah players got 3-5 hours( MAXIMUM) of sleep this morning.
CHARLOTTE +6.5 ( 1 unit )
Going with the Bobcats in this one. Rondo is doubtful for today's game.
MIL/NY OVER 207.5 ( 1 unit )
This seems like a safe bet to me. I just hope I'm not setting myself up for an easy looking Over. I made this number 211.5.
GOOD LUCK
Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 10:41 AM
YTD 76-59 ( +26.80 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 12-8
2u 26-19
1u 34-28
There have been 26 betting situations this season in which teams have played 3 games in 3 consecutive days. When the NBA posted their schedule i circled the third game in every B2B2B situation and simply assumed that FADING THE TEAM PLAYING THE THIRD GAME of this specific situation would be an automatic moneymaker. Every team will go through this phase once and some teams twice. If you go by the closing line the this angle is currently 12-12-2 ATS ( not exactly free money or even close to it )
The only discrepency that i have noticed is that early on this trend got off to a 9-4 Ats start meaning the team playing it's third game had covered the spread in 9 out of the first 13 games. This mostly took place in the Month of January.
The next 13 games of this angle has been more favorable to the bettor fading this trend. Since 1/18 the team playing it's 3rd game in 3 days is 3-8-2 ATS and this makes perfect sense, not only because fatigue became a factor but also because some of these teams would eventually go on to play a 5/7 7/9 or 9/12 within the B2B2B.
My two wagers today involve teams in this situational angle. I'm fading the Hawks and the Spurs with San Antonio being my larger of the two wagers. Ginobli is a go but... [More]
Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 10:27 AM
YTD 74-59 ( +23.80 units )
5u 1-1
4u 3-3
3u 12-8
2u 25-19
1u 33-28
IND / MIL OVER 204 ( 2 units )
This is a tricky game to handicapp because both teams are on a B2B2B situation. The initial thinking here is that both sides will be tired and fatigue should be a major factor. OK BUT HOW ? This doesn't necessarily mean it will be a low scoring game or both teams will shoot under 45%. The pace might not be as hectic, but i seriously doubt defending the paint will be a prority for either team. Keep in mind the fast break is all about pushing the ball up court before the defense has a chance to set up . With tired legs i don't see to many bodies getting back defending the paint. Both teams have excellent open court players. The total has gone Over in 4 out of the last 6 Indiana games and 10 out of the last 15 Milwaukee games. FINAL SCORE 110-109 ( YOU PICK THE WINNER )
CLIPPERS -2.5 ( 1 unit )
During a recent 6 game homestand the Clippers ranged between a 5 and 9.5 point favorite in every game against Mediocre competition. A 3 game losing stread has caused a slight adjustment in the point spread. Laying 2.5 is a bargain in my opionion. Let's not forget the Grizzlies are only 9-13 SU away from home. The Clip should be a 4.5 here. Strictly a value play. Every team in this league will go through a lo... [More]
Posted Wednesday, March 21, 2012 11:06 PM
YTD 71-58 ( +23.05 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 12-8
2u 22-19
1u 33-28
MILWAUKEE -3 ( 5 units ) Game of the Month
Six straight wins , 8 straight covers this is the hottest team in the league and I'm gonna back them today and make this my Game of the Month ( a rare 5u play for me ) . With Monte Ellis joining the Bucks this makes for one of the most explosive backcourts in the NBA. Scott Skiles has cranked up the running game and it's been working partly because their team Chemistry is clicking on all cylinders. You gotta have talent to run a high octane offense without a true center and that's what the Bucks have been able to do. The Bucks have won the last two games by a combined 51 points with Jennings and Ellis in the backourt. Anyone of their 5 starters ( Delfino,Gooden , Ilyasova,Jennings and Ellis ) can lead them in scoring on a given night. This will be a revenge game for the Bucks as well. They are fighting for a playoff spot, this is their first home game with Ellis/ Jennings tandem and the crowd will be pumped. I got no problem laying the 3 here. The Bucks are a team you wanna have down the stretch laying a key number like a 3 or 3.5 because this is the best free throw shooting team in the league at 79.5%. In a perfect world the BUCKS WIN THIS GAME 105-90. Let's hope today is a perfect day.
ALSO PLAYING-... [More]
Posted Tuesday, March 20, 2012 05:19 PM
YTD 70-58 ( +22.05 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 12-8
2u 22-19
1u 32-28
INDIANA -3.5 ( 1 unit )
The Pacers have been consistent for most part of the season but extremely difficult to cap lately. They went 25 games deep into the season before suffering B2B losses then managed to lose 5 straight followed by 6 straight wins then 4 straight losses. I'm cautiously risking 1 unit on the Pacers today. They were roughed up by the Knicks on the Weekend but have had two days off to regroup. One of my favorite NBA players Leandro Barbosa will be playing tonight. He's a spark plug off the bench and provides experience and leadership. This is the Clippers first game of a B2B2B and this just might be a look ahead game as they travel to Oklahoma City tomorrow.
GOOD LUCK
Posted Monday, March 19, 2012 05:24 PM
NBA YTD 69-56 ( +24.20 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 12-8
2u 22-18
1u 31-27
ATLANTA -1.5 ( 2 units )
As expected the Celtics road trip has finally taken it's toll. This is Game 6 of an 8 game road trip and i think the Celtics are going to tank the rest of the way. I don't think I'm going to fade their remaining 2 unless the spread is reasonable but i do think there is super value in today's line.! Since Marvin Williams has been out the Hawks have moved Johnson to the small forward position and he's been on fire. Pachulia can hold his own against the Celtic Big guys up front. Zasa's been a rebounding machine, THE CELTICS ARE 1-5 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games.
CHARLOTTE +10 ( 1 unit )
MINNESOTA +2 ( 1 unit )
good luck
Posted Sunday, March 18, 2012 10:56 AM
YTD 67-54 ( +24.40 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 12-7
2u 20-18
1u 31-26
A big card for me today. I don't have time for write-ups as I'm taking the family out to the ST-PATRICKS day parade.
Good luck with all your plays everbody!! I made the Rockets my BEST BET today. Martin is probable, this is an awful lot of points for the Suns to be laying. I think the Rockets win SU here.
HOUSTON +6.5 ( 3 units ) Best Bet
ATLANTA -2 ( 2 units )
ORLANDO +8.5 ( 1 unit )
UTAH +11 ( 1 unit )
NCAA-------NORFOLK ST +14.5-----This play is from one of the best College basketball Cappers I know. He's not a covers poster but He's one sharp dude. This is his largest bet of the year. I just thought I'd share it here.
HAPPY SUNDAY
Posted Saturday, March 17, 2012 12:07 PM
YTD 66-52 ( +24.45 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 20-17
1u 31-25
Going for my 7th winning day in a row!!!!
CHARLOTTE +2 ( 3 units )
I've been accused of playing the Bobcats way too many times this season. I guess it's been working out OK as I'm 4-2 ats in Charlotte games , and once again today i find myself betting on the Bobcats. It's not so much a play on the Bobcats , I'm more into fading the Raptors in this particular situation. I've seen this angle play out consistently all season long . The Raptors just can't put B2B wins together. It's not only that !! Toronto is 2-11 SU coming off a win, and after last night's DD OUTRIGHT OT WIN !! I couldn't think of a better spot. This will be the only game this season that the Raptors will laying points on the road. LETS TAKE IT FINAL SCORE CHARLOTTE 96 TORONTO 91
NEW JERSEY -3 ( 2 units )
The latest news on Deron Willimas is Game time Decision. Some reports list him as Day to Day while others have him listed from questionable to probable!! If his calf is feeling better during the pre game shoot around he will get the start and this line will spike up to 4.5 or 5. If anyone is leaning Nets. I'd take them ASAP before this line moves. I love the trade for Gerald Wallace. This provides a major boost at small forward and on defense.
INDIANA -4 ( 1 unit )
I'll admit it, this is sort of a square play !! Playing on a losing team...
[More]
Posted Friday, March 16, 2012 05:15 PM
YTD 64-51 ( +22.50 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 19-17
1u 30-24
Going for my 6th winning day in a row. Three wagers for me today.
MILWAUKEE -1.5 ( 2 units )
TORONTO +10 ( 1 unit )
DETROIT +5 ( 1 unit )
Good luck Have a Great Weekend !!!
Posted Thursday, March 15, 2012 05:48 PM
YTD 63-51 ( +20.55 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 18-17
1u 30-24
CHAROLOTTE +14 ( 2 units )
I'm 3-2 ats this year in Bobcat games almost every time as a DD dog but i do try to pick my spots with some sort of solid reasoning. Today's play is a simple fade against the Mavericks. Dallas has lost it's mojo and desire to drive to the basket. Dirk is the only low post threat, their taking way too many three's , Kidd and Carter are hard pressed to play 25 minutes a game and it's basically a one dimensional team ( JASON TERRY FIRING TREY'S ) Dallas is 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games . Only 9 out of their 24 wins have been by DDs. They shot over 50% against the Wizards on Tuesday yet only won by 9 points and they've yet to have B2B games shooting more than 50% from the field. Not a common stat, but most teams will do this 3 or 4 times throughout the year. The decline of aging veterans has kicked in. FINAL SCORE DALLAS 99 CHA 91
GOOD LUCK
Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 11:08 AM
YTD 62-51 ( +19.50 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 18-17
1u 29-24
INDIANA -3.5 ( 1 unit )
The Pacers are riding a 4 game losing stread so this team is in desperate need of a win. Looking at the Trail Blazers road record this team has only 2 wins out of 20 road games agaisnt teams that currently have winning records. Half of Portland's losses away from home have been in the DD range so i don't have a problem laying 3.5. This is a tough spot for Portland as they arrive in Indiana for the 4th game of a season high 7 game road trip. Portland coming into Indiana might be just what the doctor ordered for the pacers.
good luck
Posted Sunday, March 11, 2012 09:28 AM
YTD 61-51 ( +17.50 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 17-17
1u 29-24
ATLANTA +1 ( 2 units )
Sacramento has only been a favorite in 5 out 40 situations this season and all 5 chalk games have come against teams with losing records. I'm looking for a good spot to bet the Hawks and I think I've found one ! Atlanta is on a current 5 game road trip and their coming of B2B losses agains the Heat and Pistons. They blew a 10 pt lead in the 2nd half of the Heat game and then lost 86-85 at Detroit a couple of days later. They had a chance to win both games in the dying seconds as Pargo and Johnson came up short at the buzzerd. With games coming up at Denver and Clippers this Sacramento game today might be the only chance they have to salvage a single win in their current 5 game road trip. The Hawks are a .500 team on the road and I'll bet against them getting swept. Offensive struggles have been on ongoing problem for Atlanta on the road but they match up well against the Kings who have the worst defense in the league allowing 102.5 points per game and let's not forget the Hawks are ranked #1 in overall road defense. Did i mention Joe Johnson is back !!!
GOOD LUCK
Posted Saturday, March 10, 2012 12:26 PM
YTD 59-50 ( +16.55 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 17-17
1u 26-23
WASHINGTON +5.5 ( 1 unit )
NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (1 unit )
GOLDEN ST -3 ( 1 unit )
Good luck everybody---------------------3 plays for me today !!!
Posted Friday, March 09, 2012 05:16 PM
YTD 57-48 ( +15.65 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-3
3u 11-7
2u 16-17
1u 26-21
MILWAUKEE +2 ( 2 units )
Knicks are 8-12 as a favorite and 7-12 Ats in road games and I'm not sure this team deserves to be a favorite against the Bucks. New-York will miss Chandler and that's good news for Drew Gooden who's been averaging over 20 points in his last 4 games. I like the Bucks in this spot and if it's a close game in the 4th, Milwaukee's got a huge advantage from the Charity stripe as they are 2nd in the league at 79.3 %.
BOSTON -3 ( 1 unit )
I think this might be my first wager on the Celtics this year. It's a team that i dread laying points with but I do have an exception for this one bet though. Coming off 3 season low's 71 points , 35% from the field and 0 three points shots made i expect the Celtics who have one of the best home defenses in the league to come out strong and cover the 3 against a very bad road team in Portland.
NEW ORLEANS +10.5 ( 1 unit )
DALLAS -1.5 ( 1 unit )
4 WAGERS FOR ME TODAY----------THE GLOVES ARE ON
good luck Guys, have a great sports betting weekend !!!
Posted Wednesday, March 07, 2012 12:32 AM
YTD 54-47 ( +15.85 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-2
3u 11-7
2u 15-17
1u 24-21
HOUSTON -1.5 ( 4 units )
I love the Rockets in this spot and i anticipate this line closing as high as -2.5 or -3. There is a striking similarity pattern that has developed with this current 4 game losing streak in comparison to an earlier 4 game losing streak which took place from 1/3 to 1/7. Looking back at that previous L/STREAK the Rockets lost all four games against teams with winning records ( CLIP,LAK and OKLA CITY twice ) now this current four game losing streak once again involves teams with winning records ( Utah, Den, Clip and a heartbreaking loss against the Celtics last night ) Excuse me Utah is one game under .500 !!! Now let's backtrack into that previous losing streak! The Rockets avoided a 5th loss by stepping down in class travelling to Charlotte as 3.5 point favorite and beating the Bobcats 82-70. Once again tonight the Rockets will try to avoid a season High 5 game losing streak as they travel to Toronto and lay a favorable -1.5 against a sub .500 team. I'd go as high as -3 in this game. FINAL SCORE HOU 105 TOR 90
CHARLOTTE +7.5 (2 units )
As soon as Paul Silas got ejected the Bobcats turned a 20 point defecit into a 15 point win. I'd normally avoid playing a team that won as an outright dog the previous night but with the Bob... [More]
Posted Tuesday, March 06, 2012 05:04 PM
YTD 52-47 ( +12.85 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-2
3u 11-7
2u 14-17
1u 23-21
1-1 l last night, just a horrible loss with the Timberwolves. Two plays for me today, don't have time for write-ups.
Gotta Run
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR BETS TODAY !!!
DALLAS -1.5 ( 2 units )
CHARLOTTE +9( 1 unit )
Posted Monday, March 05, 2012 05:36 PM
YTD 51-46 ( +13.95 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-2
3u 11-7
2u 14-16
1u 22-21
MINNESOTA -3 ( 2 units )
This is a tough spot for the Clippers !! They are currently on a 4 game in 5 nights road trip and this will be the only time in the Clippers schedule that they will be forced into playing all these away games bunched together. They Clip are coming off an OT win last night with several lead changes which adds a little more comfort towards the let down angle.
GOLDEN ST -1 ( 1 unit )
I'd never thought I'd be laying points on the road with the Warriors but after yesterday's 75 point season low i jus't can't help myself. Stephen Curry is Game time decision . This time around I'm not even going to speculate weather he play's or not. We'll probably know by 6 pm and I'm anticipating a small jump in the line. I managed to find a -1. So I'll take it.
gl
Posted Sunday, March 04, 2012 09:53 AM
YTD 51-45 ( +16.05 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-2
3u 11-7
2u 14-15
1u 22-21
DEN / SA OVER 206.5 ( 2 units )
2 out of the top 5 highest scoring San Antonio games this season have come against the Nuggets. 121-117 back on 1/7 and then just two weeks ago the Spurs defeated the Nuggets 114-99. The posted totals for those games were 199.5 and 202 !! Now is today's Over/Under of 206.5 still worth a play ? I think it is !! This is what George Karl wants ! Lawson to push the ball as much as he can. The Nuggets have taken over the top spot in the league with 103.8 PPG. They are also tops in the league with fast point breaks. Denver is ranked #29th in the league in points allowed on the road and ranked #1 in points scored on the road and this is why 11 out of Denver's last 15 road games have gone Over the total.
GOOD LUCK GUYS
PEACE, ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY WITH FAMILY AND FRIENDS
Posted Saturday, March 03, 2012 11:27 AM
YTD 51-43 ( +18.25 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-2
3u 11-7
2u 14-15
1u 22-19
DETROIT +8 ( 1 unit )
The Pisons are 13 games under .500 but a modest 18-19 ATS. This roster is filled with aging vetrans along with 2 promising young players in Knight and Monroe. I had given up on Stuckey but he's had some pretty games and is most likely shoping for a contract next year. Detroit is on an 11-3 ATS run and had their first winning month ( FEBRUARY ) in over 3 years. I can't pass this number up !! 8 POINTS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME.
CLE/WASH UNDER 199 ( 1 unit )
Both teams near the bottom of the league in FG%, ranked #23rd and #28th in the league. I'm hoping this can counter either teams inability to defend the paint as both teams are giving up near 100 PPG. With Nick Young out and Kyrie Irving GTD the under is the play for me.
PORTLAND -5.5 ( 1 unit )
The T-Wolves are playing their 4th game in 5 nights which includes a B2B2B session. There have been 22 B2B2B situations this season but only 4 out of the 22 have occured while the team has been away from home in all 3 games. The Timberwolves are the 5th team to fall into this trend. The Trail Blazers have been pretty good (12-6 SU ) coming off a loss and if you factor in the T-Wolves scheduling i think the Blazers should win this game handily.
GOOD LUCK HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY
Posted Friday, March 02, 2012 03:45 PM
YTD 51-42 ( +20.35 units )
5u 1-0
4u 3-2
3u 11-7
2u 14-14
1u 22-19
HOUSTON -3 ( 2 units )
The Rockets are a solid 15-4 SU at home. They were on a nice run right before the All-Star break winning 5 out their last 6 on home court. They matchup well against Nuggets who are the worst defensive team on the road. Denver allows the most three points made in the league with 8.2. This is a nice spot for the Rockets who just had sub 90 point B2B games for the first time this season. Actually they shot less than 40% from the field in their last 2 games and this is a first after 36 games under their belt. Some of the Players tweeted right after the Jazz game that they'll be ready for the Nuggets. Laying three points is more than reasonable in my opinion. FINAL SCORE HOU 106 DEN 99
good luck