5t4r5align's Blog

Posted Wednesday, October 03, 2012 03:42 PM

5t4r5 playoff rankings

I guess you could call these my current Power Rankings as I see the teams heading into the Playoffs. All the playoff teams are fairly strong in all these areas (hence why they made the playoffs) and was more difficult than I anticipated.  I think these are the teams that are in?? Its a bit confusing with all this wildcard nonsense. 
Anyway, I will be updating/tweaking these lists as I see fit throughout the playoffs and will probably weighted more heavily towards current performance.  I didn't include starters as those obviously need to be evaluated on a game to game basis.
GL this postseason 

Bullpens      Batting        vsL             vsRBraves         Yankees     Cardinals     YankeesRangers       Nationals    Yankees      TigersCardinals     Orioles        Giants         OriolesOrioles        Giants         Nationals     CardinalsGiants         Athletics      Athletics      NationalsYankees      Cardinals     Rangers      GiantsReds           Tigers          Reds           AthleticsNationals     Rangers    ... [More]

Posted Sunday, June 10, 2012 11:37 PM

Monday's mush

yesterday 3-1 +2.20uMLB 60-41 59.4% +20.10u
Bankroll management is above all, the most important.  The best sports handicapper in the world will bust without it guaranteed.
I thought most of us here would already know that, but...  on to today's small card.  I haven't looked at any stats, line movement or capped the games in any way, just first glance thoughts looking at the card.
Yanks vs Braves
Seriously PK 'em?  Yankees are hot, Braves are hot.  But PK 'em? Nova vs. Delgado?  Seriously? Proceed with caution here.
Nats vs. Jays
Has to be value on the Nats.. right?.  They just swept Boston in Fenway. They are rolling right now and may actually be for real this year.
Red Sox vs. Marlins
Now that should be pick 'em imo.  Lean Boston though
LAA vs LAD
Not sure who Garrett Richards even is.  Should be a good series. 

Pick(s) coming later... if any but Im sure I'll have to play something











... [More]

Posted Friday, June 08, 2012 12:07 PM

Friday's Fears

At times, you must be willing to put your money in spots that make you uncomfortable.  That's where the profit lies.
yesterday: 3-2 +1.59uMLB 51-36 58.6% +14.91u
Phi/Bal u9 (-105) - Both pitchers pitching better than their ERA indicates.  And both teams struggling to plate runs as of late.  
Rockies +135 - COL pitchers always have inflated ERAs due to where they play.  It takes a pitcher a while to learn how to pitch there and CJ will be very unfamiliar Coors field (took a quick look, and couldnt find any games where CJ has pitched here).  Colorado also has a MUCH better pen and the Angels aren't a great Road team to begin with. Great line value here imo.  
Twins -135 -Starters are a wash imo.  Minny ranks #11 in MLB against lefties. Cubs have been playing a bit better lately but the Twins still have better, hotter bats and the better pen. We all know Cubs suck on the road.  Solid bet here.
Astros +130 - Wandy has been very solid on the Road this year.  Sox have cooled off and struggle against lefties anyway. Houston ranked #11 against right handed pitchers and have been smacking the cover off the ball lately.  Public perception of these two teams are offering solid value in the line. 
Rays +104 - Rays showed life yesterday beating the Yanks and smacking CC around and the Marlins are reeling.  Hellickson has been very solid so far and is coming off one of his best performances of... [More]

Posted Thursday, May 31, 2012 11:53 AM

Thursday's TAG fish

The tagfish sits at the table thinking he has it all figured out.  He thinks his way is the best way ..the ONLY way to play the game. He looks at his opponents with disgust not realizing their innovative play is changing the reality he once knew to be true.  He fears what he does not understand. He thinks selection is all that matters while ignoring the bottom line. The tagfish will continue to plod along collecting his dues, but sadly will never realize his FULL potential. A winner? sure, in the right situations.. but in the end, just another fish.  
I expect an over-reaction to Tulo being out tonight, and this will provide a good line to play the OVER in Colorado.  Will wait and see what happens as the day progresses. 
yest: 6-2 +4.45u 32-21 60.3% +10.33u
Leans:OVER in ColUNDER in Bos
... [More]

Posted Tuesday, May 29, 2012 01:33 AM

Tuesday's Troubles

Reds/Pirates u8 (-125)
Royals/Indians o8.5 (-115)
Orioles (+135) 2u very rare
Cards -115

 

yesterday: 3-2 +1.02u

ml26-15 +11.43u




Posted Sunday, May 27, 2012 11:07 AM

Sunday's Snacks w/ write-ups

Nothing tricky about today's plays.  Sometimes square plays are the right plays.
Tribe/ChiSox o9 (-120) - Let's start w/ Ubaldo (5.02 ERA, 5.79 xFIP).  His ERA is high and his xFIP confirms that he is just simply pitching bad.  His control is horrible 6.58 BB/9 and he is only striking out 5.19 batters per 9.  He faces the hottest hitting ballclub in majors today.  This alone is almost reason enough to take the over but wait.. there's more.  For the Tribe, Gavin is a quality pitcher and capable of throwing gems here and there, but this year he has been average at best (4.66 ERA 4.11 xFIP).  His GB% is down from previous years also.  If the Sox don't take care of  the total by themselves, the Indians should be able to help them out with a few runs of their own.
Rays/RedSox o10 (-110) - This is almost the same exact play as above.  With the Total opening at 10 (after a low scoring game), lines makers are telling us there will be fireworks.  To me, they want you to see that 10 and Hellickson's 2.73 ERA and think UNDER. Don't be fooled.  Hellickson's xFIP of 4.40 suggests negative regression.  However, last year his ERA stayed under 3 despite his higher xFIP.  Pitchers don't always regress the way the stats suggest they should.  In Hellickson's case, it prob can be attributed to TB's stellar defense.  Doesn't matter though, Bucholz has been awful (7.84 ERA, 5.35 xFIP).  His xFIP suggests his... [More]

Posted Saturday, May 26, 2012 11:26 AM

Savvy Saturday w/ write-ups

First, a quick primer.  I use a lot of Sabermetrics to cap games, esp pitching.  I also use the wOBA metric to rank team batting and xFIP- to rank bullpens.  For in-depth explanations on these terms, please google them.
Pads/Mets u7.5 (-110) - I'm stubborn and playing this UNDER.. again
Nats -120 - Significant starting pitching edge to the Nationals.  And while the Braves are struggling with injuries to their big bats (rank 2nd to last in past 7 days), Im going to ride Strasburg's arm in this one.
Royals +108 - Paulino has amazing breakout potential.  He has struggled with injury and control in the past, but this guy can and comes to pitch. He sports a fastball that averages over 95 mph and can strike people out with the best of them.  On the other hand, Wei-Yin's Saber stats suggest negative regression.  And while the O's may have the better team here, the Royals are strong enough in other areas to warrant a play on Paulino in my mind.  Bet this guy while he is on his way up.  The under could also be an option as the Royals struggle with left handed pitching.
Giants/Marlins o7.5 (EVEN) - Are you fucking kidding me!? Another total under 8 at Marlins Park and the public lining up on the under?  More runs are being scored in Miami than at Coors Field this year.  Both teams are hitting well right now and while these pitchers are good, they aren't anywhere close to scaring me off the over.  Taking the Giants ... [More]

Posted Sunday, May 20, 2012 11:46 AM

Super Sunday

Hey all!

Been away for awhile.  Getting back into this a little bit.  Im 1 and 8 in my last 9 picks   (not posted).  Finally got a win with OKC last night.  I haven't been doing much research or following anything closely but I like today's card.  Please feel free to let me know if think any of these are bonehead plays.

Reds +155 - Cueto at that price?  I'll take it.  I look for him to back bounce back after his last performance.  I don't care if he's playing the Yanks and Sabathia.

Marlins +104 - Sabermetic data suggest Johnson will get better and Lowe is due for regression.  I'll take the plus money here too.

Phillies -136 - Beckett and the RedSox are struggling with baseball and personal issues.  I'll take Lee and Phils playing at home at this short price.  I don't even care to look at stats on this game.

Pacers +2 - Miami is toast

 All

 



Posted Thursday, November 10, 2011 05:09 PM

ncaaf week 11

Last Week 13-8 +4.20u  YTD: 175-117 59.93% +46.20u

Thurs
(113) Virginia Tech -1½ (-110)
 Thu@8:00p
(109) Ohio vs. (110) Central Michigan Under 58 (-105)
 Thu@7:30p
Sat
(150) Tulsa -19
 Sat@12:00p
(180) Nevada -14 Sat@10:15p





Posted Tuesday, October 18, 2011 07:29 PM

ncaa week 7

YTD: 133-94 58.5% +29.70u
Fri
(308) Louisville -2 (-105)
 Fri@8:00p
Sat
(364) Kansas +11
 Sat@12:00p
(354) Missouri +7 (-115)@12:00p
(316) Purdue +4½ (-115) Sat@12:00p
(334) Iowa State +21 (-115) Sat@3:30p
(344) Vanderbilt -10 (-120) Sat@7:00p
*more to come




Posted Wednesday, October 05, 2011 04:44 PM

ncaa week 6

Week: 20-14 +4.40u  YTD:114-72 61.3% +35.00u

(304) Middle Tenn State -11 Thu@7:30p
(315) Connecticut +20 (-115) Sat@12:00p
(380) Wake Forest +11½ Sat@12:30p
(331) Army -2 Sat@1:00p
(310) Indiana +14½ (-110) Sat@2:30p
(369) Kansas +32 Sat@3:30p
(364) Central Florida -18 Sat@7:00p
(352) Stanford -29½ (-110) Sat@7:30p

*more to come


Posted Tuesday, September 20, 2011 03:18 PM

Week 4

 last week: 25-11 +12.90u YTD: 73-40 +29.60u

Thurs
(301) North Carolina State +8 (-115) Thu@8:00p

Fri

Sat

(309) Toledo +2 (-105) Sat@12:00p
(320) Penn State -29 Sat@12:00p
(331) Bowling Green +4½ Sat@1:00p
(361) Nevada +20 Sat@7:00p



Posted Thursday, September 08, 2011 11:04 AM

ncaa week 2

YTD 25-10 +14.00u

Thurs
Arizona +14 (-120)

Fri
Fla Int +3 (-110)

Sat
Toledo +19 (-110) 2u
Tulane +14 (-120)
E. Carolina +18.5 (-110)
Washington -6.5 (-110)
Minnesota -20 (-110)
California -6.5 (-110)
Marshall +7.5 (-110)
N. Illinios -6.5 (-110)
Arkansas -36 (-110)






Posted Sunday, July 10, 2011 12:33 PM

All-Star break

This is the easiest play of the year.  No capping, No breakdowns, No leaning, just plain and simple. 

All-star game = UNDER the total (I'm guessing 7.5, haven't looked yet)

This is by far the toughest hitting enviornment for a batter.  Facing a different All-star pitcher every 2 innings, meaning they will probably be only facing each amazing pitcher once, if at all.  I don't care how good the hitters are in this game.  Great pitching almost always beats Great hitting and we will follow that rule here.  I'm playing 2 units on the UNDER.  

I will also be posting my Home Run Derby picks in here later.  That will take a bit more capping.

 



Posted Thursday, June 30, 2011 10:05 AM

mlb thurs w LIVE IN-GAME guide

Yesterday 6-5 +2.05u  June 148-142 +3.95u  May 97-94 50.8% 
YTD Series plays 4-1 +2.25u
    WED Steam 2-2 YTD STEAM 147-111 56%

Leans

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101084102

Can't argue with Bodio's leans. I am a true believer in his handicapping style. My only concern is the wind blowing out at Coors field.  Cook is a groundball pitcher while Peavy allows more flyballs which could spell trouble for him today.

Plays and LIVE IN-GAME betting guide coming soon!!!



Posted Monday, June 06, 2011 10:28 AM

MON mlb w/ steam

Yesterday 9-6 +3u June 37-30 55.2% +5.0u  May 97-94 50.8% 
YTD Series plays 2-1 +1.05u

Sun Steam 2-2 YTD STEAM 97-70 58.0%

--won 20$ in sims_key's contest last night at absolutely NO RISK.  I didn't believe it either, but I signed up for free, posted my picks and the money was in my paypal account within minutes after the contest
you can check the site out here
 https://www.ludawgs.com/forum.php?referrerid=219

Initial Leans - based on starters overall xFIPs ONLY
Baltimore
Minnesota and under
Sea/Cws under
Toronto
TB
Lad/Phi over
Chi/Cin under
Milwaukee
Col/SD over
Was/Sfo over








Posted Thursday, June 02, 2011 10:12 AM

THURS mlb and steam

Yesterday 6-6  June 6-6 -0.45u  May 97-94 50.8% 
Series plays 2-0 +2.45u
Wed Steam 6-1 YTD STEAM 85-61 58.2%


Initial Leans
Bucs and over
Tribe
Royals
Giants/Cards under
Tampa
Astros/Pads under

Nats/Dbacks total is set @ 9 with Zimmerman and Duke on the mound.  I'm not sure if this is just b/c of the HOT bats on these two teams or if this a trap by the books to get dumbasses like me on the under. 





Posted Saturday, May 28, 2011 10:30 AM

sat mlb and steam

Yesterday 3-8Thurs Steam 1-0
YTD MLB 61-67 YTD STEAM 70-56 

Today's snippets can be found here: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101065354

Pitt/Chi Over

Wells is coming back off the DL and I feel they are rushing him back due to the Cubs dire need for starting pitching.  Wells thinks he’ll be able to throw around 90 pitches on Saturday and wasn’t concerned that two minor-league rehab appearances might not be enough to get him ready. He wrote off his last start at Triple-A Iowa – seven runs in four innings – as trying to locate his fastball and get a feel for his sinker.

Malholm is nothing special and hasn't had much success against Chicago's hitters in the past.  Soriano and Ramirez have blasted 6 home runs off him in 63 AB. The Cubs hit lefties well and have responded well this year with big production after getting shut down the game before.  There is also  a stiff breeze predicted to be howling off the Great Lakes directed towards the ivey laced brick wall today @ Wrigley

CWS/TOR Under 8

This will probably be an unpopular play today I imagine b/c you will hear alot of "Jackson sucks on the road" rhetoric from the peanut gallery.  That is exactly why I like this play. 

Jackson's advanced stats suggest he is due for positive regression.  I truly feel that this regression will come on the r... [More]

Posted Thursday, May 26, 2011 09:09 PM

mlb snippets for friday

This is just a little experiment. These are just a very quick overviews of the games I come up with that I use in my initial capping process and I thought I might as well post them.  Alot of the generalized statements I make are very subjective based on a quick overview of stats (both standard and advanced) A certain stat may carry more weight with me than someone else.  Please know that these are very, very early leans.  Obviously, much more in-depth analysis is needed before deciding on a play.  If you are reading this and you like it or think its something you could use to help you in your capping, just post a  or  etc so I wont waste my time in the future

Fri 5/27
Early Game:
Pit@Chc -105 and (OFF)
Doug Davis' ERA is deceiving (has nice FIP and xFIP but small sample size this year), High strike out pitcher, but he has always struggled with control. Correia is very avg pitcher (Low K/9 but also low BB/9) but has had some success against Cubs current lineup. Davis has also very good success against Pitt apposing lineup.  Cubs have much better bats.  Bullpen advantage: Pirates by alot.
Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Leans: Definitely will look at the Under when line comes out.

Late games:
BOS@DET -110 and  9.0
Both pitchers have been pitching relatively well this year.  Porcello struggles against Leftys, Boston has plenty ... [More]

Posted Thursday, May 26, 2011 10:39 AM

MLB thurs and steam

Yesterday 3-0
YTD MLB 55-55
50.0%
YTD STEAM 68-56  54.8%
STEAM Wed - NONE

Locked these in last night
Tor -130
Cin/Phi o7 -120

Leans
Det
Det/Bos o8.5
KC

Steam
Ari/Col o9

I don't really know if anyone is reading or enjoying my silly write-ups everyday (mainly just for fun) so I'm going to try just posting for awhile (saves time).  If you have any questions about my plays, feel free to ask
Lets do this and BOL to All


Posted Wednesday, May 25, 2011 03:16 AM

Wed MLB and Steamers

Yesterday 1-2
YTD MLB 52-55 48.5%
YTD STEAM 68-56  54.8%
STEAM Tues 1-2

Today's Leans
AL
Bos/Clv Ov        
Det TT Ov
Tor ML

AL Snoozer of the Night

Oak/Laa Un 6.5

Both pitchers starting this game are throwing some of the best ball of their careers this year. Although Oakland's current lineup has hit Santana well in the past, this is not the same Santana from 2010.  He has returned very close to his '08 form and Cahill has been even more dominant than he was last year.  Neither one of these teams hit right-handers as well as they do southpaws overall and the A's are a pretty light hitting bunch as it is. The Bullpens haven't been great as of late but some of their best arms are rested and available tonight. 

6.5 is little number to play the under against, if only we had an 'Under' ump.  Oh shit.. hello Doug Eddings.  Nice to see you behind the dish tonight. 
 
Eddings has some revealing peripheral numbers that show he is a long-term ‘under’ umpire. In the last five years the ‘under’ is 78-62 in his 140 games behind the plate. In 2007, Eddings called an amazing 65.43 percent of pitches a strike, which is the highest percentage of strikes called by any umpire in the last five years. In that same year, Eddings had a strikeout/walk ratio of 2.88 to 1. Batters better be ready to get that bat off their shoulders when ... [More]

Posted Sunday, May 22, 2011 10:59 PM

MLB MON w/ Steam and Tail plays

Sunday's Recap

MIN/ARI UN 8 even

HOU +130

ATL -125

PHI -142

TB/FLA OV 8 -105 steam play

CIN/CLV OV 8.5 -105 tail play

COL -125 tail play

STL -170 tail play

WAS -105 tail play

Sunday's STEAM 2-2

YTD 50-52 49.0%
YTD STEAM 64-51  55.6%
YTD Tail Plays 12-12 50.0%

Today's Early Leans

Cleveland 

LAD/HOU Under

TOR/NYY Under

MIL/WAS Over

St Louis

LAA -1 RL

Lets do thisand BOL to ALL





Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 11:21 PM

MLB SAT with Steam and Tail Plays

Fridays Recap
TEX/PHI UN 7
FLA TT OV 4
WAS/BAL UN 8.5
YTD 46-47 +0.15 units 

FRI STEAM 1-5
YTD Sharp Moves 59-48

TAIL PLAYS
MIL/COL UN 7.5
ORIOLES
Race to 3 Runs - Toronto
YTD Tail Plays 6-8 -3.5 units

Today's Very Early Leans
Reds
Pitt and Over
Baltimore
Phillies
Atlanta

Today's Plays

TB -1.5 RL +105

Already locked this in.  Maybe I should have waited to get a better price, but I just didn't expect anyone to be backing Vazquez seeing how he has pitched this year, but they are.  I just don't see how. Vazquez is 5-5 with a 4.97 ERA against the Rays. But last year with the Yankees, Vazquez was 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA against Tampa. Price is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts against the Marlins.

Do I even need to post anything about how BAD Vazquez has been this year? This seems like a very 'square' to me with Price on the hill, but I just don't think Valquez has what it takes to pitch in the Bigs anymore.  The only reason he is still in this rotation is because FLA doesn't really have any other options and his manager seems stubborn.

Manager Edwin Rodriguez said Friday,  “We need to establish and solidify that rotation. And without him in the rotation, we don’t have many options. He’s going to have to step up, make adjustments, because that rotation, the one we send out there, that’s the one we plan on using. We’re going to stay with that r... [More]

Posted Thursday, May 19, 2011 09:00 AM

5t4r5 MLB Thurs with Steam and Tail plays

Yesterday's Recap
 COL/PHI Under 7.5 -130
Cincinnati -155
CLV/CHW Under 8.5 -120
MIL/SD Over 6.5 -120
Toronto TT OV 3.5 -135
Yankees +111
YTD 43-43 50% +0.50 units  

Wed Steam 3-1

YTD Early Sharp Moves 56-43 56.5%

Tail Plays
Tex/KC Under 8 -120
 
Atl/Ari Over 9.5 -115
Dodgers -130
YTD Tail Plays 6-5 +0.24 units

Today's Leans

WAS/NYM Over 7.5
HOU/STL Over 8
Texas
Toronto TT Over


Posted Wednesday, May 18, 2011 01:24 AM

5t4r5 MLB Wed with Steam and Tail plays

Yesterday
SFO/COL Over
HOU/ATL Over
SD/ARI Under
Nats ML PPD
TOR/DET UN PPD

YTD 38-42 -3.00 units

STEAM 1-0

YTD Early Sharp Moves 53-42

Tail Plays

Cubs ML
Marilins ML PPD
Blue Jays ML PPD
CHC/CIN OV
LAD ML

YTD Tail Plays
6-2 +3.9 units

Today's Leans
Yankees
Florida and Under

Today's Plays

COL/PHI Under 7.5 -130
Cincinnati -155
CLV/CHW Under 8.5 -120
MIL/SD Over 6.5 -120

Let's do this and BOL to ALL!



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Joined: March 2011
Location: Virginia
Team: St. Louis Cardinals
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