AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - Sony Open**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, January 10, 2012 09:40 PM   35 comments

Will Stricker repeat? I say NO!!

How about somebody else that hits a lot fairways?

 

35 comments
comment Post A Comment
AJLightning says:
01/10/12 09:55PM

Howell III sure has been quiet lately...he has a great history at Waialae too....

Bots27 says:
01/11/12 04:54PM

Aj,,,,,i thought mark wilson was tryng to repeat as champ at the sony??? do u mean back 2 back weeks?? haha just givin ya a hard time cause i tuned in expecting to see ur winners and got the run around!!

u aint kidding bout howell III,,,great record here....but lots of guys have a good record here,,,,Davis LOVE III, Stricker, even Rory,,,,no not McLLroy the other rory.....sabbatini,,,,,, shoot I even like zach johnsons record here,,former champ!!

I am lookin for guys who played last week,,played well,,,hit it straight and can scramble,,,,as well as a good track record,,,,,and man do I like Stricker again this week,,,,,but i agree with you it is hard to win 2 weeks in a row,,,,,,,

So a couple guys I like are as follows,,,,KJ CHOI (-8 on monday got my head turnin), Mark Wilson, def. champ,,had a solid week at TOC),,, I also like Chris Kirk,,finished 30th here last year and 7th last week.

Lots of sleepers are at play here 2,,,,guys like brian gay and jerry kelly....RYO is playing,,, hes got enough game to win anywhere!!!! also Bud Cauley....in 8 events last year he had 5 top 30 fiinishes,,,4 top 20's and 2 top 5's........including making the cut at the US Open.......

I will be seeking out tournament match-ups and round by round as well.....tough to pick a winner with 134 guys,,,i like 27 player fields for pickin winners!!

 

 

Bots27 says:
01/11/12 06:42PM

ok,,looking at how brian gay finished last year,,,i dont think I would trust him this week,,,,,def. wait to see how he does thurs b4 I would make any plays on him........The more I look into charles howell III the better he looks,,,,he finishes really strong at this event.

 

AJLightning says:
01/11/12 08:05PM

BOTS - OK, maybe I should have been more clear. Will Stricker win BACK to BACK weeks?? There, you happy? 

I like all those guys too...Zach, Choi, Love III, Kirk, Gay, Toms. All accurate drivers and they all know the course well...besides Kirk. Although he had a Top 30 last year, which was surprising.  

I'm just narrowing it down to experience, accuracy and putting. Now, it's difficult to get the best guy at each stat. Obviously! Just look for the right matchups.

blah, blah, blah,.....blee blee boo blah....blady blah....

and that's how I feel about this week.....

AJLightning says:
01/11/12 08:06PM

no time for leans I guess?

AJLightning says:
01/11/12 09:14PM

1st Round Matchups

7108 VJ (-115) over Cink (-115)

7111 Toms (+105) over Z. Johnson (-135)

 

Tournament Matchups

7006 Howell III (-130) over K. Bradley (Ev)

7012 Marino (-120) over VJ (-110) - 2*

7020 Yul Noh (-115) over Ishikawa (-115)

7040 Campbell (-115) over Barnes (-115) - 2*

 

 

 

Bots27 says:
01/11/12 09:57PM

AJ,,,,,man i feel better now we are on the same page,,,ty...

man i searched and searched and i found some match-ups i liked but nothin i was that confident in...

I like charles howell over keegan,,,,simply cause he has played well at his tournament year after year

Not so sure bout Toms, he didnt play so well last week, but this course sets  for him,,,,i didnt see any highlights of 400+ yard drives from him,,although he was T-1st in driving accuracy...hard to go against zach johnson 2,,,,he played well at tigers tourny,,1 up with 2 to go,,,said he didnt have his A-game so he seemed pretty up beat bout where his game was headed plus he hits it straight and gets it up n down.

these were the ones i would consider: ( i had a lot more and kept on scratching em off 1 by 1,,,,hard to tell who has game this early in the year)

Tournament:  Stricker -135 over webb simpson

1st round: C. Pettersson -145 over J.Vegas,

to win: Howell III +2000

BOL,,,i look forward to watchin tomorrow and seeing what kinda match-ups we get for friday.

AJLightning says:
01/11/12 10:44PM

Just remember bro...distance ain't shit this week! That is a stat I totally ignore. Useless...like tits on a boar!!

I thought the Toms line was off. I think it opened at Zach -125. Accuracy and scrambling is a wash with them. I don't know exactly and it would be difficult to explain my logic on that one...but it has to do something with last weeks performance, Zach's Chevron showing and the way odds makers do the lines.

So basically I probably talked myself into believing Toms is the play....

stats1 says:
01/11/12 10:46PM
bol  buddy         u play any1 2 win outright?
AJLightning says:
01/11/12 10:59PM

Not a big fan of futures or parlays....IMO   

But if I just HAD too...maybe Howell III, Marino and a flyer on Brian Davis @ 100-1 

Bots27 says:
01/12/12 08:54AM

AJ,,,I agree with you that distance is not as much of a factor this week,,,I tried to say this course sets up better for toms than last week,,,,,he was T-1 in driving accuracy and finished towards the bottom of the field,,,,obviously hitting fairways didnt matter much,,,however, hitting fairways should help him this week.

I like the toms play alot better since its only todays round,,not sure he beats zach for the whole tourny but with toms playing last week and getting some of the rust off his game, I think for sure he can go out and beat him 2day....plus I always like getting the +105 line on a solid player like Toms!!!!

Also really liking your chad cambell play,,,he has had some great tournaments at sony.....and I dont expect much outta ricky barnes,,,

man I keep going back to rory sabbatini,,,i think he might be dangerous this week,,,,I dont really like the guy but i think he could be in the last groups come sunday,,,gonna look into some plays for him,,,I dont want to, but I think i have too!!

bogey533 says:
01/12/12 01:43PM

Good luck A.J on your picks today and throughtout the week.

Like you say useless like tits on a boar lol good to see a good sense of humor. Distance means shit. The Hyundia is a different tournament, not alot of players and players to bring there families. I think if you dont get off to a good start your attention goes more to the surroundings and spending time with your family then on the course. Toms didnt get off to a good start and his putting, GIR, and scrambling all near the bottom. This is a good event for him to play well if he starts out ok. BOL A.J.

AJLightning says:
01/12/12 03:46PM

On ESPN Streak for the Cash....they have the Zach/Toms matchup as a prop.

96% have picked Zach to win!!! I'm loving that....Toms it is!!

 

MrBogey says:
01/12/12 04:12PM
The other Rory is off to a hot start bots, I hope you guys loaded up on him, sorry to say I missed out....
AJLightning says:
01/12/12 09:33PM

Toms - 23% driving accuracy through 16 holes...

great job Sport!!

 

AJLightning says:
01/14/12 01:04AM

Moving Day Matchups

7302 Points (-110) over Piercy (-120)

7316 Cauley (-125) over Stanley (-105)

7317 Pettersson (-135) over De Jonge (+105) - 5*

7320 Hearn (-125) over Every (-105) - 2*

 

 

 

 

WhatThePho says:
01/14/12 01:24AM

 

AJ,

Do you know I can find a list of Sony  Open 1 rd head to head matchups results?

My cheesy online books only list who I took and not other opponent..!

They told me to wait Sunday to post final results..!

Thanks!

 

 

bogey533 says:
01/14/12 10:56AM
BOL On your plays today
AJLightning says:
01/14/12 11:00AM

If your book won't tell you who your matchups were, then you need a new book.

Bots27 says:
01/14/12 12:18PM

I like you ur Cauely over stanly play today,,i think cauley is gonna make a run at this thing,,,,when he is on he makes it look so easy!!

 

also I love the pettersson play over de jonge....de jonge went low yesterday and that is tough to follow up, peterrsson missed some opportunities yesterday (missing for par on 17 (3 feet) and not making birdie at 18 and he still managed to finish strong and get it to -8 for the tourny,,,,,of all the guys at the very top of the leaderboard I would expect Pettersson to have the best day

BOL go get em AJ

AJLightning says:
01/14/12 04:59PM

7302 Points (-110) over Piercy (-120)  

AJLightning says:
01/14/12 05:57PM

Come on Carl and Hearn....I need solid rounds from the both of you's!!

 

    

AJLightning says:
01/14/12 06:40PM

Bud with a double bogey, bogey start...that a way to do it Hoss!!!

 

AJLightning says:
01/15/12 11:10AM
AJLightning says:
01/15/12 11:11AM

Final Round Matchups

7402 Cauley (-120) over Stanley (-110) - 2*

7405 Pettersson (-110) over Gay (-120) - 5*

7413 Points (-110) over Piercy (-120) - 2*

7416 Waldorf (+130) over Wagner (-160) - 5*

 

 

 

Pipe-Light says:
01/15/12 11:46AM

good to see you on waldork and points.

AJLightning says:
01/15/12 11:49AM

Tailed Bluefin on Duffy....and I have always liked DA's game and I'm banking on a strong finish from him today.

AJLightning says:
01/15/12 02:14PM

Looking at the early scores, it might be a tough day for scoring.

NoWorries21 says:
01/15/12 05:12PM

Hope u win today but in general DA is not that good and he is the biggest douche out there

Bluefin says:
01/16/12 07:55AM
sorry bro..
AJLightning says:
01/16/12 06:51PM

sorry for what? for not coming in my thread till after the fact?

long season "bro"....

 

Bluefin says:
01/17/12 08:36AM

Always look at the positive makes life so much more enjoyable

AJLightning says:
01/16/12 07:27PM

OK, I'm a dumbass....I assume it's for the Waldorf tail???

Oh well, but I didn't expect him to throw up his dress like he did. I mean damn Duffy, you can't remember what pressure feels like?

 

AJLightning says:
01/16/12 08:00PM

1st Round Matchups

7108 VJ (-115) over Cink (-115) 

7111 Toms (+105) over Z. Johnson (-135) 

 

Moving Day Matchups

7302 Points (-110) over Piercy (-120) 

7316 Cauley (-125) over Stanley (-105)  PUSH

7317 Pettersson (-135) over De Jonge (+105) - 5* 

7320 Hearn (-125) over Every (-105) - 2* 

 

Final Round Matchups

7402 Cauley (-120) over Stanley (-110) - 2* 

7405 Pettersson (-110) over Gay (-120) - 5*  PUSH

7413 Points (-110) over Piercy (-120) - 2* 

7416 Waldorf (+130) over Wagner (-160) - 5* 

 

Tournament Matchups

7006 Howell III (-130) over K. Bradley (Ev) 

7012 Marino (-120) over VJ (-110) - 2* 

7020 Yul Noh (-115) over Ishikawa (-115) 

7040 Campbell (-115) over Barnes (-115) - 2* 

 

 

 

11-12-7 YTD

-11.95 Units   

AJLightning says:
01/16/12 08:01PM

Not the start I was looking for this year. The only positive I can take from the first two weeks is -

5-1-1 on Tourny matchups....so maybe I'll stick to those.....

Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 
Advertisement