AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, May 17, 2011 02:02 PM   56 comments

Finally...The Colonial! This tournament is my favorite next to the Masters. Old school golf at it's finest baby! Colonial Country Club owns the longest run of any host course of a non-major on the PGA TOUR schedule. Only the Masters has hosted a tournament for a longer period of time.

Pros can go SUPER low on this track. (See Z. Johnson last year, 64-64 on the weekend!) Last year Colonial was the Third easiest Par 70 course on Tour (1.459 strokes under Par). The course is not extremly long, but it's very tight. Trees line all the fairways, there's a lot of doglegs and the wind makes it a little more difficult to navigate. Usually, morning tee times will give you an advantage because of the light winds. Colonial is a shot makers paradise. You must be able to work the ball on command and having some experience is a plus as well. Look for guys that hit a lot of fairways and greens to do well this week. Being a good putter from beyond 10 ft. won't hurt your chances either.

 

 

 

 BOL

56 comments
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PennStateMan077 says:
05/17/11 02:26PM
AJ,

what do you think of Zach Johnson, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, and Bill Haas
AJLightning says:
05/17/11 03:18PM

I like all four of them this week!! Day and Zach would be my best two out of those...

 

 GL

jz1119 says:
05/17/11 04:42PM
Good Luck my friend.. looks like you picked up 7+ units last week right? 
AJLightning says:
05/17/11 05:12PM

Yes Sir, +7.05 to be exact!! Hit 3 out of 4 tourny matchups, about 50/50 on the H2H matchups and I hit the Top Italian prop (Manassero)!!!

 

jz1119 says:
05/17/11 05:40PM
That's awesome man..good stuff.  i go through a local whos has one of these iffy websites so it doesnt have stuff like "top italian" but it has tourney matchups, and round by round matchups.  curious to see what u pick .
PennStateMan077 says:
05/17/11 06:21PM
Thanks AJ.

I took J.B. Holmes,Jeff Overton, Brian Gay, Zach Johnson, Jason Day to win.

I think Holmes,Overton,Gay are all big sleepers this week. Cannot wait to see your card 

DT3324 says:
05/17/11 07:36PM
Just say...

BRIAN GAY! CHA CHING AT 50-1
NoWorries21 says:
05/17/11 10:26PM
You goin out there this year?
AJLightning says:
05/17/11 10:35PM

Nope, not this year.....

proguy747 says:
05/18/11 02:31PM
Toms  
AJLightning says:
05/18/11 02:44PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Kuchar -125 over Mahan

Crane +105 over Day

Furyk -125 over Scott

Toms -125 over Cink

Perez -110 over Snedeker

Laird -125 over Dufner

Gay -105 over B. Haas

Verplank -115 over Glover

Barnes -110 over Romero

Kim -105 over Perry

M. Wilson -115 over Palmer

Goydos -110 over Immelman

Leishman -105 over Walker

Laird -120 over Sabbatini

Perez -105 over Na

Sergio -120 over Scott

Leonard +110 over Campbell

Sergio -115 over Cink

Kuchar -125 over Zach

 

 

PennStateMan077 says:
05/18/11 02:55PM
fading scott and cink 
AJLightning says:
05/18/11 03:13PM

I agree...Toms over Cink for the tourny may be a 5* play!

AJLightning says:
05/18/11 03:14PM

Not sure about him winning this week...but he'll make the cut for sure!

 

 GL Hoss!

AJLightning says:
05/18/11 03:18PM

 

tschifano says:
05/18/11 05:24PM
AJ BODOG   has   GAY vs CINK   PK  Your thoughts
AJLightning says:
05/18/11 07:29PM

Gay

NoWorries21 says:
05/18/11 09:08PM
I agree. Goood play on Gay.

AJ You should come out to the Nelson next week. More of a party than the Colonial.


AJLightning says:
05/18/11 10:48PM
1st Round Matchups

 

7104 Gay (-115) over Laird (-115) - 2*

 

7109 Dufner (-115) over Fowler (-115) - 2*

 

7118 Lehman (-120) over Perry (-110) - 5*

 

 

Tournament Matchups

 

7003 Crane (Ev) over Day (-130) - 2*

 

7009 Toms (-125) over Cink (-105) - 5*

 

7012 Perez (-110) over Snedeker (-120) - 2*

 

7019 Barnes (-120) over Romero (-110) - 2*

 

 

 

 

 

KBrick84 says:
05/19/11 03:55AM
GL tomorrow.  I myself am just taking some bomb's and checking in Saturday to see where they be.  Ranging from 35/1 to 65/1

Pat Perez
Brian Gay
Bo Van Pelt
Brian Davis
Steve Marino
Bluefin says:
05/19/11 05:56AM

bringing  out the big 

I made a few top secret plays!

ON the B's in the pucks whats up with the bases you dabbling?

AJLightning says:
05/19/11 09:12AM

 

Those are all really solid picks man...good luck!!

AJLightning says:
05/19/11 09:17AM

My favorite tournament of the year Biggin'....I got to come out firing!!! What do you think of the Lehman pick??

 

I play the diamonds everyday BLUE!!!  

 

BOL of your plays!!!   

jz1119 says:
05/19/11 09:38AM
Aj, wanted to wish you luck man.  Need to start focusing on my Series 7 this weekend so I'm going to stay away from this tourney but wanted to wish you luck. 
AJLightning says:
05/19/11 11:45AM

Thanks man and good luck with your Series 7!!

 

AJLightning says:
05/19/11 11:59AM

Fucking Ricky Barnes man...I don't know why I continue to bet on that fag! When I want to bet on him but lay off, he goes low! When I bet on him, he throws his skirt up!!

AJLightning says:
05/19/11 02:02PM

couple of early surprises -

Chez Reavie

Boo - where has he been?

Scott

Stenson - really?

Toms and Fowler go LOW.....

Bluefin says:
05/19/11 05:39PM
Awfully quiet in here where are the golf fans?
proguy747 says:
05/19/11 06:19PM
  Toms..       please win..
AJLightning says:
05/19/11 07:30PM
1st Round Matchups

 

7104 Gay (-115) over Laird (-115) - 2* 

 

7109 Dufner (-115) over Fowler (-115) - 2* 

 

7118 Lehman (-120) over Perry (-110) - 5*  PUSH  

 

 

Tournament Matchups

 

7003 Crane (Ev) over Day (-130) - 2*    4 down

 

7009 Toms (-125) over Cink (-105) - 5*    2 up

 

7012 Perez (-110) over Snedeker (-120) - 2*    2 down

 

7019 Barnes (-120) over Romero (-110) - 2*    Even

 

 

 

 

 

156-159-35 YTD

 

+18.90 Units

AJLightning says:
05/19/11 07:32PM

 

They all left when you quit posting....nobody likes quitters!!

KBrick84 says:
05/20/11 02:02PM


Looks like Van Pelt, Marino & Gay are my only chances after slow starts from the other 2.

Need Van Pelt to have a big day...63 or 64 would do just fine....and need to get Gay to somewhere around -8 or -9 going into the weekend.
Bluefin says:
05/20/11 10:31PM

Getting ready for the Covers Golf tournament and the No Worries Challenge Match but I'm afraid Salty may do me bodily harm I hear he is a big SOB. Oh man why do I always piss off the big ones

 

Jarrett75 says:
05/20/11 11:04PM


just kick him in his chin balls and he will go down.
Jarrett75 says:
05/22/11 03:03AM
I don't think you should bite AJ or bet Toms to win. He looks like he lost it mentally today, don't know that he can take the pressure two weeks in a row.
Jarrett75 says:
05/22/11 05:07PM
looks like Mark Wilson putting his ball into the water on that par 3 is going to cost us.
PennStateMan077 says:
05/19/11 07:45PM
im here lurking as usual 
Tampaman9 says:
05/20/11 08:32AM
Getting Lehman at -105 right now....Hmmmm
jz1119 says:
05/22/11 02:46AM
i could catch this should i bite aj/whoever:

003 Toms wins Crowne Plaza Invitational   +140 
6004 Toms does not win   -170
\

jz1119 says:
05/22/11 11:39AM
lol..sorry was a little inebriated..I actually was considering betting on "No" on Toms winning, now its -190.
jz1119 says:
05/23/11 10:23PM
get em back next week aj
Waxi says:
05/20/11 09:38PM

You seem to have this dis-like of Fowler and he continues to burn you.

The kid has major talent.

AJLightning says:
05/20/11 10:18AM

 

That's the plan....Toms scares me some, he's been HOT lately.

AJLightning says:
05/20/11 09:23AM

I like going against the line movement in golf....so that line is fine by me!

AJLightning says:
05/19/11 10:35PM

2nd Round Matchups

7202 Perez (-110) over Crane (-120)

7204 Lehman (-120) over Perry (-110) - 2*

7211 Dufner (-110) over Fowler (-120) - 2*

7213 Kuchar (-110) over Toms (-120)

 

 

 

 GL

AJLightning says:
05/22/11 10:24AM

 

I agree Jarrett....I think he's done! Go look at the ESPN streak for the cash prop today....who will win, Wi or Senden?? They didn't even include Toms. So he either wins it or falls farther back today. I choose the latter...

AJLightning says:
05/22/11 10:28AM

Final Round Matchups

7401 Kuchar (-120) over Mahan (-110)

7403 Laird (-115) over B. Haas (-115) - 2*

7407 Cejka (-120) over Atwal (-110)

7409 Palmer (-105) over Na (-125)

7416 M. Wilson (-115) over Goydos (-115) - 2*

7417 Senden (+110) over Toms (-140)

 

 

 

Sunday 6-Pack....Good luck fellas!!

AJLightning says:
05/21/11 08:18PM

2nd Round Matchups

7202 Perez (-110) over Crane (-120) 

7204 Lehman (-120) over Perry (-110) - 2*  PUSH

7211 Dufner (-110) over Fowler (-120) - 2* 

7213 Kuchar (-110) over Toms (-120) 

 

Tournament Matchups

 

7003 Crane (Ev) over Day (-130) - 2* 

 

7009 Toms (-125) over Cink (-105) - 5*    9 up

 

7012 Perez (-110) over Snedeker (-120) - 2*    6 down

 

7019 Barnes (-120) over Romero (-110) - 2*    PUSH

 

 

 

 

 

157-162-37 YTD

 

+14.60 Units

AJLightning says:
05/21/11 09:05PM

4 Pt. Teaser

DAL +7

O194.5

 

 

AJLightning says:
05/21/11 09:50PM

 

Rounds like today are why I bet against him.

AJLightning says:
05/21/11 10:18PM

Final Round Matchups

7401 Kuchar (-120) over Mahan (-110)

7403 Laird (-115) over B. Haas (-115) - 2*

7407 Cejka (-120) over Atwal (-110)

7409 Palmer (-105) over Na (-125)

7416 M. Wilson (-115) over Goydos (-115) - 2*

7417 Senden (+110) over Toms (-140)

 

 

Sunday 6-Pack....Good luck fellas!!      

AJLightning says:
05/22/11 07:11PM

Final Round Matchups

7401 Kuchar (-120) over Mahan (-110) 

7403 Laird (-115) over B. Haas (-115) - 2* 

7407 Cejka (-120) over Atwal (-110) 

7409 Palmer (-105) over Na (-125) 

7416 M. Wilson (-115) over Goydos (-115) - 2* 

7417 Senden (+110) over Toms (-140) 

 

Tournament Matchups

7009 Toms (-125) over Cink (-105) - 5*   

 

7012 Perez (-110) over Snedeker (-120) - 2* 

 

 

 

 

OUCH....big hit today.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

159-168-37 YTD

 

+10.40 Units

proguy747 says:
05/20/11 06:53PM
Toms!   
NoWorries21 says:
05/20/11 09:24AM
On those last 2 heavy. Fading the low round from day before is usually a good thing!!
tschifano says:
05/22/11 09:37PM
ouch
tschifano says:
05/22/11 09:38PM
Drunk on thar 6 PACK  !
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