AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - FedEx St. Jude Classic**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, June 07, 2011 10:27 PM   87 comments

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Toms +105 over Westwood

Byrd -115 over Gay

Snedeker -110 over Sergio

Goosen -115 over Karlsson

Davis +115 over Jacobson

Imada Ev over Yang

Herron +110 over Kelly  

Zach Ev over Toms

Zach +130 over Westwood

87 comments
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PennStateMan077 says:
06/07/11 10:33PM
yes I like them all but Sergio and Karlsson 


Bluefin says:
06/08/11 11:40AM
WOW what a fuckin dud this golf thread has turned into not even worth coming in here anymore cept for you AJ, no discussion,no opinion nuttin..I guess people with brains play golf not gamble on it..
jz1119 says:
06/08/11 11:47AM
I'm still consistently looking but unfortunately I dont believe my insight is all that helpful
NoWorries21 says:
06/08/11 11:59AM
I unfortunately do not have the time I did during the winter. I agree for a while we had some real good discussion but not any longer
jz1119 says:
06/08/11 01:52PM

7013 Geoff Ogilvy  +1½  (-140)  -110  
7014 Scott Verplank  -1½  (+110)  -120

 

Thinking about taking a shot on Verplank here, Ogilvy coming off an injury and never made a cut in this tourney.

PennStateMan077 says:
06/08/11 02:19PM
I like Z.Johnson/ Toms/ Byrd / Garcia/ Harrington/ Imada this week 
jz1119 says:
06/08/11 02:30PM

I like Imada over Yang as well, but I dont know if the numbers back it up

AJLightning says:
06/08/11 05:08PM

 

You got me man...it always picks up for the Major's, so next week should be busy!

AJLightning says:
06/08/11 05:09PM

 

Kind of like it too...looking into the matchup more.

AJLightning says:
06/08/11 05:32PM

my two cents...

Looks like value to me. Imada coming off a T3 at the Nelson two weeks ago and he has a decent history at TPC Southwind. Three starts with three top 30's.

Yang on the other hand has only played this tournament once and he missed the cut. Obviously he doesn't like the course. His stats are a LITTLE better than Imada's, but I feel Imada's game fits this course well. Southwind is a lot like The Nelson.

jz1119 says:
06/08/11 05:36PM
hmm just took this from YE's twitter:

Y_E_Yang YE Yang

In Memphis for the first time in my life. Exciting place. Tune up for US Open, but not an afterthought either - Fedex St Jude

AJLightning says:
06/08/11 06:22PM

HAHA....then he has a very bad memory. He played there in 2008 when it was the "Stanford St. Jude Championship"....he shot 71, 78 for a trunk slammer. Maybe that's why he forgot!

AJLightning says:
06/08/11 06:23PM

In 1989, the FedEx St. Jude Championship underwent its second course change, this time to the TPC at Southwind. The tournament has been held at Southwind every year since.

 

jz1119 says:
06/08/11 06:49PM
hahaha gtfo
AJLightning says:
06/08/11 07:22PM

 

Fo reels playa...

2A7D16FDDB304F80B18583F299D4B13D says:
06/08/11 07:37PM
Imada has been better lately but his year overall has been terrible.

I like yang here because he has been decently con. this year, much more than imada.
jz1119 says:
06/08/11 09:55PM
aj 
jz1119 says:
06/08/11 10:01PM
hmm..on a golf website : Ogilvy hasn't been as lucky as the men above in previous visits to the St. Jude, but he hasn't been a regular visitor and, much more importantly, he hasn't been playing as well as he is today. Ogilvy has had a few slips, but there is undeniable focus and a new-found sense of ability in rebounding and staying competitive. His game is on a different level, the major is right around the corner, and it feels like he's ready for a big step forward.
jz1119 says:
06/08/11 10:04PM

17. Scott Verplank [Yahoo Class C] - World Ranking: #67

Verplank brings the fear of recent injury to the counter for fantasy owners as we continue to work through the more dangerous commodities for the week. He has struggled to play well when he has been able to swing over recent weeks, and while he holds a respectable record of performance on this Memphis track, we worry he's not as stable as we might like from a fantasy starter.
AJLightning says:
06/08/11 10:57PM

1st Round Matchups

7105 Curtis (-105) over Marino (-125)

7112 Byrd (-115) over Snedeker (-115)

7114 Karlsson (+135) over Westwood (-165)

 

Tournament Matchups

7002 Toms (-105) over Westwood (-125) - 2*

7024 Imada (-105) over Yang (-125) - 2*

7025 Herron (Ev) over Kelly (-130) - 2*

 

 

 

BDUBB says:
06/09/11 02:03AM
AJLightning says:
06/09/11 09:34AM
may add some more to Karlsson...line up to +150 now. Will wait closer to tee time to see if it moves some more....
preed885 says:
06/09/11 09:59AM
AJ I'm trying to get odds to win tourney for either Kim or Sergio to text my bookie, but since it's closed, I can't find what the lines are. You know by any chance? And also do you have a long shot sleeper you like? Thanks, and GL
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 10:30AM
I took Estes over Ames for the tournament..not looking good at all!
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 11:34AM
does anyone have a live feed for this?
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 11:35AM
Ryuji 43 foot bomb for birdie
AJLightning says:
06/09/11 11:42AM

Sorry man, I sure don't. Now that the tournament has started the books have taken down the "To Win" props. I'm sure they are out there somewhere.

And again the tournament has started so I really can't tell you who I like. I'm not big into picking winners anyway, it's kind of like hitting the lottery! A lot can happen in four days. But there is one guy who hasn't started yet...and if you want a super duper long shot darkhorse sleeper, then here he is ---->

 

PATRICK REED  

(google the name and remember it!!!)

AJLightning says:
06/09/11 11:44AM

Liked it, but to juicy for Estes. He should never be that big of a fav.

AJLightning says:
06/09/11 11:45AM

 

jz1119 says:
06/09/11 11:49AM
We'll see what happens, need Ames to hit some shots in the water.  Did you see that 11 by Sergio just now..wow.  Do you have any live feeds?
AJLightning says:
06/09/11 12:26PM

 

Didn't see it live....just watching the leaderboard at work. I don't know of any live feeds....sorry dude

WillyWonka says:
06/11/11 08:45AM

yeah petereseen all over the place
camillo looks more consistent but who kows
thats a tough one


Byrd screwed me on day 2 against snedeker
BUt I think he does beat westwood today
thats my favorite of ur plays today
Westwood not putting all that good and I see byrd getting better each day
WillyWonka says:
06/11/11 01:09PM
beem just missed a 4 footer on 9
and then boo birdies 8
BEEN THAT IS UNACCEPATBLE
4 Footer
WillyWonka says:
06/11/11 02:06PM



WillyWonka says:
06/12/11 09:37AM


on at betjm -140
WillyWonka says:
06/12/11 09:38AM
WillyWonka says:
06/12/11 09:39AM
Who u got today AJ
Jarrett75 says:
06/11/11 05:43PM
Karlsson on the last two
Jarrett75 says:
06/12/11 01:45AM
liking the splits on sneds and merrick. Frazar I think will meltdown on Sunday. Good luck.
Jarrett75 says:
06/12/11 12:09PM
I just can't see Frazar who has barely made a cut the last two years coming out playing well after a 64 yesterday. It just depends on how well Merrick will play. He started out on fire and just ok later. GL today AJ.
Jarrett75 says:
06/12/11 11:57AM
interesting. At my book Merrick dropped 5 cents. hmmm
qball1324 says:
06/09/11 03:30PM
Byrd is playing like shit
qball1324 says:
06/10/11 04:56PM
that sergio play was $$$.  Great call
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 08:14PM
nice call with karlson
jz1119 says:
06/10/11 11:19AM
lool Ames may win this tournament..solid pick Estes -130 over Ames by me.
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 03:48PM
Ugh Ames is killing me..what a random stupid pick
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 05:18PM

Snedeker over Garcia looks like the POD so far.  Definitely wouldve preferred that to my silly Estes pick.

jz1119 says:
06/09/11 01:18PM
same here..im just checking out leaderboard as well. 
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 01:49PM
yikes what is Imada doing
jz1119 says:
06/09/11 02:56PM
Sounds good to me!
BDUBB says:
06/11/11 07:03AM
Thoughts or leans on Weekley -140 over Beems????



BDUBB says:
06/11/11 07:39AM
DrtySanchez says:
06/13/11 08:12PM
Plus Units = 

Keep up the good work AJL, looking forward to the US Open picks.  
DrtySanchez says:
06/12/11 02:19PM
GL on your plays AJL
AJLightning says:
06/12/11 06:20PM

Final Round Matchups

7406 Byrd (+130) over Westwood (-160) 

7407 Herron (-120) over Matteson (-110) 

7409 Imada (+115) over Snedeker (-145) 

7416 Pettersson (+110) over Jacobson (-140) 

7418 Merrick (-125) over Frazar (-105) - 2* 

 

Tournament Matchups

7025 Herron (Ev) over Kelly (-130) - 2* 

 

+1.75 units on the day...+7.05 units for the tourny!

 

 

 

187-188-43 YTD

+17.80 Units

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 06:28PM

HAHAHAHA  

Frazar won it!! WOW....good for him....355 starts

 

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 12:02PM

Looks like this could be a fun final round....got some low scores so far today!!

 

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 12:04PM

Merrick is -125 at my shop now....may make a play on him....

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 12:15PM

 

Thats what I'm thinking. He actually went low two days in a row....65, 64....that's fade material coming from a career journyman...

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 01:02PM

adding Merrick -

 

Final Round Matchups

7406 Byrd (+130) over Westwood (-160)

7407 Herron (-120) over Matteson (-110)

7409 Imada (+115) over Snedeker (-145)

7416 Pettersson (+110) over Jacobson (-140)

7418 Merrick (-125) over Frazar (-105) - 2*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 01:04PM

going to pass on the final group...should fade the leader but you should also fade a guy that goes low the day before.

lean Karlsson for his first win in the US!!!

AJLightning says:
06/11/11 07:22AM

lean to the Beemer!

AJLightning says:
06/11/11 07:25AM
Take a look at Pettersson's stats through the first two rounds....
AJLightning says:
06/11/11 07:26AM

I'm out....tee time in an hour!! See you'all around noon!!

 

AJLightning says:
06/11/11 02:06PM

Should have hammered Merrick.....

 

        

AJLightning says:
06/11/11 04:31PM

 

Not sure what you mean by that..his stats are solid as hell.

This week:

Birdies - T9

Dri. Acc. - T3

Dri. Dis. - 10th

Putts Per GIR - 3rd

GIR's  - T24

 

The Golf God's will eventually reward you for solid play...

 

AJLightning says:
06/11/11 02:04PM

Pettersson 2 up...9 to go

 

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 12:02AM

Moving Day Matchups

7307 Byrd (+140) over Westwood (-170) 

7312 Pettersson (-115) over Villegas (-115) - 2* 

7317 Karlsson (-120) over Jacobson (-110)  PUSH

 

Tournament Matchups

7025 Herron (Ev) over Kelly (-130) - 2*    2 up

 

 

 

183-186-43 YTD

+16.05 Units

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 12:12AM

putting these up for line movement purposes, these are NOT leans...plays to follow in the morning....

 

Kelly -125 over Walker

Allenby -140 over Villegas

Westwood -155 over Byrd

Herron -120 over Matteson

Snedeker -140 over Imada

Howell III -140 over Ames

Adams -135 over Blanks

Jacobson -140 over Pettersson

Merrick -135 over Frazar

Goosen -125 over Karlsson

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 11:48AM

Final Round Matchups

7406 Byrd (+130) over Westwood (-160)

7407 Herron (-120) over Matteson (-110)

7409 Imada (+115) over Snedeker (-145)

7416 Pettersson (+110) over Jacobson (-140)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 11:50AM

Tough call for the final pairing. Ya, you want to fade the leader but you also fade a guy that shot low the day before. Goosen with a 64 should be faded today....I'll have to think about that one.

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 11:55AM

All of them moved 5 cents...Merrick moved 10 cents

 

AJLightning says:
06/12/11 11:56AM

Final Round Matchups

7406 Byrd (+130) over Westwood (-160)

7407 Herron (-120) over Matteson (-110)

7409 Imada (+115) over Snedeker (-145)

7416 Pettersson (+110) over Jacobson (-140)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/09/11 01:13PM

adding another unit on Karlsson...

 

1st Round Matchups

7105 Curtis (-105) over Marino (-125)

7112 Byrd (-115) over Snedeker (-115)

7114 Karlsson (+135) over Westwood (-165)

7114 Karlsson (+150) over Westwood (-180)

 

Tournament Matchups

7002 Toms (-105) over Westwood (-125) - 2*

7024 Imada (-105) over Yang (-125) - 2*

7025 Herron (Ev) over Kelly (-130) - 2*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/09/11 02:43PM

Damn...he gave some back on the front didn't he. Still finished even for the day which I think is very good on the first day. Very tough track and I think the guys that posted 4 under played out of their minds (Kisner, Merrick and Blanks won't be around come Sunday). I'm thinking 2 under is a more reasonable score. Looks like 10 or 11 under will win it this week!

AJLightning says:
06/09/11 07:36PM

1st Round Matchups

7105 Curtis (-105) over Marino (-125) 

7112 Byrd (-115) over Snedeker (-115)  PUSH

7114 Karlsson (+135) over Westwood (-165) 

7114 Karlsson (+150) over Westwood (-180) 

 

Tournament Matchups

7002 Toms (-105) over Westwood (-125) - 2*    6 down  

7024 Imada (-105) over Yang (-125) - 2*    Even

7025 Herron (Ev) over Kelly (-130) - 2*    1 down

 

WTF Toms?? This has been your place for years and you go and shoot yourself right out of the tourny on the first day.

 

 

 

179-184-42 YTD

+12.55 Units

AJLightning says:
06/09/11 05:05PM

Byrds not playing all that bad...+1 after 12 holes.

Now Toms is playing like SHIT....fucking 3 over after 12...REALLY???   

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 12:45PM

I got really fucked up last night during the Mavs game...Coors Light and a bowl of "Train Wreck" had me tipsy as hell. Didn't like the matchups last night, but I got two for this afternoon.

 

  MAVS 

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 12:47PM

2nd Round Matchups

7213 Sergio (+120) over Goosen (-150)

7220 Crane (+110) over Z. Johnson (-140)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 12:59PM

Thanks man! I should have hit it again today...

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 09:51PM

2nd Round Matchups

7213 Sergio (+120) over Goosen (-150) 

7220 Crane (+110) over Z. Johnson (-140)    1 shot

 

Tournament Matchups

7002 Toms (-105) over Westwood (-125) - 2* 

7024 Imada (-105) over Yang (-125) - 2* 

7025 Herron (Ev) over Kelly (-130) - 2*    3 up 

 

Toms 

 

 

 

181-186-42 YTD

+12.65 Units

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 09:59PM

 

 

Thanks Boss!!!  

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 11:35PM

Moving Day Matchups

7307 Byrd (+140) over Westwood (-170)

7312 Pettersson (-115) over Villegas (-115) - 2*

7317 Karlsson (-120) over Jacobson (-110)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/10/11 11:40PM

Lean Merrick +125 over Keegan...

 

volstud50 says:
06/10/11 11:46AM
Karlsson is kicking ass these first two days!  Not sure what happened to Toms, he is always solid here.
NoWorries21 says:
06/12/11 08:41AM
I had a little different openers than you but I had absolutely zero line movement over night.

Going to play Imada, Peterson, Merrick, and of course fade the leader play which is a play on Goosen.

Only one other than that that I have interest in is Matteson over Herron.

Good luck buddy   I am headed to Chi town for a few days.
NoWorries21 says:
06/12/11 09:28AM
Anybody know why imada/snedeker is off the board?
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