AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - U.S. Open**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Monday, June 13, 2011 11:27 PM   92 comments

U.S. Open golf at Congressional Country Club...what more could you want?

Fairways

GIR's

Scrambling

Bogey Avoidance

Pretty much the same story for any USGA Major.

92 comments
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coachpunt says:
06/13/11 11:30PM

What do you guys think about this parlay??

Stircker to make the cut -500 and Choi to make the cut - 285.

150 pays 100. 

 

any chance these guys dont make the cut?

 

AJLightning says:
06/13/11 11:43PM

A few guys I like this week:

Stricker

Mahan

Donald

Kuchar

Rose

Watney

Moore

Snedeker

Glover

Allenby

Overton

AJLightning says:
06/13/11 11:45PM

 

IMO...that's as good as the sun coming up tomorrow!

AJLightning says:
06/13/11 11:54PM

Top 10 Putters (putts per round) from the 2010 AT&T National:

WI

Moore

Snedeker

Perez

Merritt

Chopra

Overton

Gay

Green

Rose

AJLightning says:
06/13/11 11:56PM

Top 10 in Fairways Hit from the 2010 AT&T National:

Mallinger

Dufner

Willis

Glover

Hoffman

Delaet

Crane

DeJonge

Toms

Gay

coachpunt says:
06/13/11 11:58PM
I thought the same aj. 
AJLightning says:
06/14/11 12:00AM

Top 10 in Total Birdies Made from the 2010 AT&T National:

Allenby (20)

Moore (18)

Glover (18)

Quinney (17)

Willis (16)

Van Pelt (16)

Leishman (16)

R.S. Johnson (15)

VJ (15)

Wi (15)

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 12:04AM
I realize some of the above names are not in the field this week, but some are. I want you guys to get a feel for what type of player excels at Congressional. Keep in mind - the fairways and greens will be fast if it does'nt rain. So with fast fairways, length will not be a premium. Also look for guys who putt well on slick greens.
Bluefin says:
06/14/11 06:28AM
Oscarxena says:
06/14/11 08:10AM

AJ,

I'm an experienced gambler but a rookie when it comes to golf. If it is not too much trouble, could you list the sites you go to that gives you the data you are posting. I used ESPN.com just to get some driving accuracy numbers and such but I don't think it breaks down anything historical.

Great thread on the St. Jude's tournament last week, and best of luck to you this week. Any insight you provide would be greatly appreciated.

coachpunt says:
06/14/11 08:23AM
I got it with my local bluefin.  he gets his lines from bookmaker though, so you can find it there. 
AJLightning says:
06/14/11 11:09AM

Post 5,6 & 8 I got from golfobserver.com. It's a great site for historical purposes...I also use pgatour.com for stats. If you can think of a stat, they got it for you.

Thanks for the kind words and good luck to you as well!!

Oscarxena says:
06/14/11 12:20PM

McDermott says:
06/14/11 01:37PM
You realize the 2010 AT&T wasn't at Congressional, eh?
AJLightning says:
06/14/11 01:49PM

You are correct! Last year's AT&T was held at Aronimink Golf Club in PA., not Congressional.

I knew that but still used 2010's stats last night, instead of 2009.....what a retard eh??

I will update the stats to 2009......

McDermott says:
06/14/11 01:59PM
haha, no worries, just wanted to make sure you were going off the proper stats!  gl. 
AJLightning says:
06/14/11 02:24PM

Ignore post 5, 6 & 8...I used the wrong year. Here's the 2009 stats for the last year a tourny was played at Congressional.

Top 10 in GIR's

Warren

Streelman

Tiger

Elkington

Garrigus

Dufner

Mahan

Bohn

Leishman

Kim

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 02:26PM

Top 10 in Fairways Hit

Laird

Furyk

McCarron

Dufner

Elkington

Goydos

Kresge

Tiger

Snedeker

Mahan

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 02:28PM

Top 10 in Putting (putts per round)

Furyk

Letzig

Rose

M. Wilson

Molder

Danny Lee

O'Hern

Imada

McNeill

Moore

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 02:30PM

Top 10 in Total Birdies

Mahan (21)

Snedeker (19)

Tiger (18)

McNeill (18)

Chopra (18)

Glover (18)

Rose (18)

Love III (17)

Couples (17)

Molder (17)

Bluefin says:
06/14/11 03:05PM

Aj who do you consider the top 10  iron players at the open this year?

That may be the stat that counts the most along with scrambling and putts of course.

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 03:39PM

 

Whoever is tops in GIR's...obviously if you hit a lot of greens, then your good with your irons/approach shots.

Bluefin says:
06/14/11 05:37PM
Hit it high and land it soft

or the trap draw 1 hop and stop

good sand player

scrambler

fearless putter on a hot streak

my money say's the winner will excel at all of these skills this weekend.

 

I got a big one coming

... up tomorrow by teetime 

 

Good luck this week Texas

        

 

giant56 says:
06/14/11 07:06PM
what about Adam Scott using Tiggers caddie?
Worth the donation?
giant56 says:
06/14/11 07:08PM
CBSSports.com is excellent.  But AJ I love the observer site you mentioned as well.

Thanks
AJLightning says:
06/14/11 09:22PM

I thought the same thing. Kind of like the jockey and Animal King!

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 09:51PM

locking this in now -

 

Winning Score - 72 Holes

Under 281.5 (-115)

AJLightning says:
06/14/11 10:29PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Westwood -115 over Donald

McIlroy Ev over Phil

Mahan -105 over Stricker

Choi -125 over Toms  

Day -140 over McDowell   

Casey -125 over Poulter

Scott -110 over Sergio   

Simpson -140 over Yang

Hoffman -120 over Gay

Cabrera -120 over Quiros

Goosen -130 over Furyk   

Schwartzel -140 over Poulter

Ogilvy +110 over Sergio

Mahan Ev over Kuchar

 

 

jz1119 says:
06/14/11 10:47PM
I'm thinking about taking some shots on guys making the cut/or top 30 etc.  Liking Mahan top 30
thisguyiswise says:
06/15/11 12:44AM
AJ in a pool, you r the man at golf so for my pool if you have the time

choi or kuchar?

woodland snedeker na cink group or moore yang dufner overton group?

thx

good luck this weekend
Amp says:
06/15/11 02:30AM
Thoughts on Fowler?  He's a "go-for-broke" kinda player, doesn't seem to be the kind of golf you want to play this week, I'm thinking of betting against him in all the matchups
thisguyiswise says:
06/15/11 09:46AM
thx aj,

na is one of 4 in a group though, so i cant just take him out

which group would u take with best chance to do better

I have to pick on 4man group for D players

Woodland, Snedeker, Na, Cink
or
Moore, Yang, Dufner, Overton
or
Byrd, P. Hanson, Garcia, Glover

deadline is at noon and i need an expert to tie break these for me


thisguyiswise says:
06/15/11 09:47AM


thx for the advice!
thisguyiswise says:
06/15/11 10:00AM
odd that cink has been taken off the futures bets on 5 dimes, trying to find out if he withdrew or something, was at +9000
Bluefin says:
06/17/11 07:19AM
Yang +110/Cink  at 5/10's
WillyWonka says:
06/15/11 05:32PM
aj who u going with to win it
WillyWonka says:
06/17/11 01:40PM
nice start angel
3 putt from 3 feet
WillyWonka says:
06/17/11 01:49PM
angel should be ashamed of start
WillyWonka says:
06/18/11 02:12PM
3rd round AJ??????????????????
kindergartencapper says:
06/15/11 08:46PM
AJ hope all is well man

Come join my challenge
qball1324 says:
06/17/11 09:39AM
great call on manaserro
qball1324 says:
06/17/11 12:17PM
Baddeley will never win anything
madshooter72 says:
06/15/11 06:23PM
AJ, since you are one of the people on here that certainly knows golf, If you had to pick any 5 people to contend this week, who would you pick to contend for the win?    GL this weekend.
Oscarxena says:
06/19/11 08:13AM

Best of luck on your matchup plays today AJ.

J2thakizzna says:
06/16/11 05:45PM
Aj...where did you get the 140 Manessero line?
BDUBB says:
06/17/11 05:26PM
Hoping for an absolute meltdown from jackass McDowell.....
BDUBB says:
06/17/11 01:19PM
Tailing on Ooosty........BOL
Absolutxedge22 says:
06/17/11 01:17PM
There is still a long ways to go and anything can happen...but your total under 281.5 is looking really good.
Absolutxedge22 says:
06/17/11 01:10PM
AJLightning - I tailed you in the second round match between Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson. Bodog had them both at even money when I placed the wager early this morning. I wanted to tell you thank you for the pick. Good luck to you the rest of the tournament. Thanks again.
Safe-Cracker says:
06/15/11 05:52PM

AJ GOT GOOSEN AND SERGIO AT 60-1 AND CHOI AT 30-1. WHAT DO YOU THINK OR WILL THESE GUYS PUT IT IN MYASS?

GOING TO EAT SOME KOREAN FOOD TONIGHT FOR CHOI LUCK.

GOOD LUCK BRO

 

 

 

Waxi says:
06/17/11 05:03AM

No reason why Yang will go away. Surprised to see you on a bet such as this though, not your style.

Thechad10 says:
06/17/11 10:31AM

 

I sprinkled some on YANG...20-1 at sportsbook.com

Also took rory under 72.5 for the second round....lookin good

 

Futures to win:

yang

a cabrera

h stenson

stricker

watson

kuchar

rory

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 01:08PM

2nd Round Matchups

7207 Schwartzel (-130) over Z. Johnson (Ev) - 2* 

7209 McIlroy (-125) over Phil (-105) - 5* 

210 Manassero (-105) over E. Molinari (-125) - 2* 

216 Snedeker (+115) over Baddeley (-145) - 2* 

 

Updating the morning group now because I want to add a few afternoon matchups.

 

 

 

190-193-44 YTD

+18.25 Units

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 01:15PM

2nd Round Matchups

7234 Cabrera (-120) over Paddy (-110)

7248 Oosthuizen (+120) over McDowell (-150) - 2*

256 Westwood (+105) over Donald (-135)

259 Scott (-115) over Karlsson (-115) - 5*

 

 

 

  GL Fellas

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 01:42PM

 

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 07:51PM

2nd Round Matchups

7234 Cabrera (-120) over Paddy (-110) 

7248 Oosthuizen (+120) over McDowell (-150) - 2* 

256 Westwood (+105) over Donald (-135) 

259 Scott (-115) over Karlsson (-115) - 5* 

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Choi (-120) over Toms (-110) - 2*    1 shot

516 Scott (-105) over Sergio (-125) - 2* 

532 Hoffman (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2*    1 down

7043 Goosen (-120) over Furyk (-110) - 5* 

 

 

 

193-197-44 YTD

+15.25 Units

AJLightning says:
06/18/11 02:43PM

Moving Day Matchups

7339 Love III (Ev) over Palmer (-130)

7344 Snedeker (+130) over Kuchar (-160)

7345 Slocum (Ev) over Garrigus (-130)

7347 Z. Johnson (-125) over Sergio (-105)

7350 Yang (+110) over McIlroy (-140)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/18/11 03:30PM
may add to Yang...line's moving....
AJLightning says:
06/18/11 08:56PM

Moving Day Matchups

7339 Love III (Ev) over Palmer (-130) 

7344 Snedeker (+130) over Kuchar (-160) 

7345 Slocum (Ev) over Garrigus (-130) 

7347 Z. Johnson (-125) over Sergio (-105) 

7350 Yang (+110) over McIlroy (-140) 

 

Tournament Matchups

532 Hoffman (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2*    2 down

 

 

 

194-201-44 YTD

+12.00 Units

AJLightning says:
06/19/11 09:40AM

Oscarxena

Jersey973

 

  

AJLightning says:
06/19/11 09:42AM

Winning Score - 72 Holes

Under 281.5 (-115) - 2*      

 

Pretty sure this is a winner...but I'll wait to count it!

AJLightning says:
06/18/11 10:04PM

Final Round Matchups

7402 Overton (+110) over Glover (-140)

7405 Goosen (-115) over Woodland (-115)

7409 Paddy (+110) over Kaymer (-140)

7413 Senden (+120) over Dustin (-150)

7436 Kuchar (+110) over Westwood (-140)

7437 Garrigus (Ev) over Sergio (-130)

 

 

 

   Sunday 6-Pack!!  

AJLightning says:
06/16/11 09:45AM

 

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 09:45AM

Thanks man! Not over yet, but it's looking good early on!

AJLightning says:
06/16/11 07:48PM

BetJamaica...

the three # ROT's are from BetJamaica

the four # ROT's are from BetUs

AJLightning says:
06/16/11 10:40PM

1st Round Matchups

111 Rose (+110) over Day (-140) 

7123 Byrd (-110) over B. Haas (-120) 

126 Westwood (-105) over Donald (-125)     1 shot

140 Manassero (Ev) over E. Molinari (-130) - 2*  PUSH

7143 Schwartzel (-115) over Z. Johnson (-115) 

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Choi (-120) over Toms (-110) - 2*    3 down

516 Scott (-105) over Sergio (-125) - 2*    5 down

532 Hoffman (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2*    2 up

7043 Goosen (-120) over Furyk (-110) - 5*    1 up

 

Winning Score - 72 Holes

Under 281.5 (-115) - 2*      

 

 

 

188-191-44 YTD

+15.65 Units

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 12:08AM

2nd Round Matchups

7207 Schwartzel (-130) over Z. Johnson (Ev) - 2*

7209 McIlroy (-125) over Phil (-105) - 5*

210 Manassero (-105) over E. Molinari (-125) - 2*

216 Snedeker (+115) over Baddeley (-145) - 2*

7248 Oosthuizen (+120) over McDowell (-150) - 2*

259 Scott (-115) over Karlsson (-115) - 5*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/17/11 12:17AM
No line for Yang at either of my books...   bummer.....I think he will do well this week.
AJLightning says:
06/17/11 12:36AM

I may hit up Yang to win...16-1

Thoughts anyone?

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 08:47PM

 

See post 3.... GL

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 08:55PM

Life is good...Thanks KGC!  

I'm in like Flinn!!

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 11:25PM

1st Round Matchups

111 Rose (+110) over Day (-140)

7123 Byrd (-110) over B. Haas (-120)

126 Westwood (-105) over Donald (-125)

140 Manassero (Ev) over E. Molinari (-130) - 2*

7143 Schwartzel (-115) over Z. Johnson (-115)

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Choi (-120) over Toms (-110) - 2*

516 Scott (-105) over Sergio (-125) - 2*

532 Hoffman (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2*

7043 Goosen (-120) over Furyk (-110) - 5*

 

Winning Score - 72 Holes

Under 281.5 (-115) - 2*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 09:37AM

 

Like Choi....and I would take out Na. Just take a look at Na's past results in the US Open, AT&T National (2009) and the Masters. Not very good if you ask me. I say the Masters because there are a lot of similarities to this week's track. If you can play well there, then you should be able to suceed this week as well.

Good luck Boss!!  

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 09:41AM

I'm not real high on Pretty Boy this week. Also, be careful fading him in several matchups. Try to find the best matchup and go with that one. IMO, it's not a good idea to double or even triple dip on one player.

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 08:16PM

 

Not feeling Furyk at all this week. He's really had an off year. His putting is fucking horrible. He's ranked like 103rd on the TOUR in putting. He was 26th last year and 8th in 2009. He's missed four cuts this year and only three all of last year. He just hasn't been the same ole' Furyk we used to know.....

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 08:43PM

 

I just like certain players I think will succeed at each weeks tournament and bet them in matchups. There's so many guys I think can win it Sunday. Not really into donating to the books. Although I will hit up some props every now and then.

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 10:28AM

 

Moore, Yang, Dufner, Overton

AJLightning says:
06/15/11 01:41PM

 

Karlsson and Quiros 

Manassero & Laird tied for 3rd...really like what Manassero has been doing this year, but this is the US Open and that's a lot for the young first timer.

Good luck on your plays Hoss!!  

Jersey973 says:
06/19/11 08:17AM
volstud50 says:
06/15/11 02:32PM
AJ - I agree w Karlsson there.  Quiros is 2nd as well.  Not big on any of the others.
volstud50 says:
06/15/11 09:14AM

thisguyiswise - i know you didnt ask my opinion, but I think it is tossup between Choi/Kuchar, but love woodland, sneds, cink group!

 

AJ - Golfobserver.com is an awesome site, been using them for 2 years now.

scudrocker says:
06/15/11 11:21AM

Hey AJ,

Love some of your picks for the open...gonna be a great weekend.

Laird, Jimenez, Karlsson, Quiros, Harrington and Manassero

If you had to take the top 2 from those 6 who would you take.

I'm leaning Karlsson and Quiros but would love to hear what you think. Harrington is possible?

Thanks

giant56 says:
06/15/11 04:23PM
ok.  Here we go.  I took Scott, Glover, Furyk, Kuchar, Snedeker and Francesco Molinari.
5 need to make the cut to advance in my pool.
Any thoughts? Remove a player and add a player?


giant56 says:
06/15/11 04:34PM
Also, after seeing that video on pgatour.com I have a real hard time picking any one of them.  You can't take a tournament like this lightly and the timing of the video, even though it is for charity, I can't help but think they will be distracted.  I love Mahan and Fowler.  Bubba has done well and Crane I dont follow.  5 dimes says none of them win it.
giant56 says:
06/17/11 07:37PM


You were right. I F'd up
AFN says:
06/15/11 07:49PM

 

With you on Scott over Sergio, and Mcilroy over Phil for Day 1.

 

BOL!

AFN says:
06/15/11 07:56PM

Locked In

Goosen 40/1

Toms 40/1

Furyk 40/1

Scott 50/1

Poulter 50/1

Scott over Garcia (tourney)

Poulter over Casey (tourney)

Mcilroy over Mickelson (rd. 1)

 

any other longshots you are really feeling this weekend?

davopnz says:
06/16/11 03:13AM
MICHAEL CAMPBELL
Jack_Hoss says:
06/16/11 02:45AM
before anyone seriously accepts these statistics to make their bets, please realize that most of these players have a very different kind of game.

My Top 5:

Kuchar
Donald
Choi
Watson
Cabrera

Look at the course and the way it is going to play. High rough, fast greens and long.

Personally Donald is my weakest to outright win, but I believe his short game is good enough to keep him at the top around 3 under through the weekend (he simply does not get off the tee well enough)

My favorite's are Choi and Kuchar. Cabrera is ALWAYS a safe pick as he tears up tough courses. If he would only play in more PGA events the public would realize this. Watson would be my toss up, as he has been playing well and hits the long ball to have an advantage over most of the field.

Players to consider:

Casey
Westwood
Cink
Scott
Fowler

Cheers and good luck. Winning score 5 under by Kuchar.
mvp12331233 says:
06/19/11 11:46AM
likr gargarrius

Waxi says:
06/19/11 03:31PM
Under 281 was a great call. Everywhere else not so good.
AJLightning says:
06/19/11 08:11PM

Final Round Matchups

7402 Overton (+110) over Glover (-140) 

7405 Goosen (-115) over Woodland (-115)  PUSH

7409 Paddy (+110) over Kaymer (-140) 

7413 Senden (+120) over Dustin (-150) 

7436 Kuchar (+110) over Westwood (-140) 

7437 Garrigus (Ev) over Sergio (-130)  PUSH

 

Tournament Matchups

532 Hoffman (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2* 

 

Winning Score - 72 Holes

Under 281.5 (-115) - 2* 

 

 

 

194-205-46 YTD

+12.00 Units

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