AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - John Deere Classic**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, July 06, 2011 01:26 PM   68 comments

Well boys, it's birdie fest time at TPC Deere Run! Easy course this week where GIR's and Birdie Average are the top two stats. Accuracy and distance are nonexistent here. It's all about the short game.

Can Stricker three-peat?

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AJLightning says:
07/06/11 01:28PM

Players I like this week:

Zach

Day

Stricker

Howell III

Cink

Marino

Slocum

Byrd

Taylor

Rollins

Two Gloves

Wi

Tringale

AJLightning says:
07/06/11 01:40PM

Players to avoid:

Driscoll

Lyle

Adams

Percy

Blanks

Merritt

Points

Lamely

Quinney

 

AJLightning says:
07/06/11 02:01PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Day +120 over Stricker

Howell III -120 over Toms

Marino -105 over Cink

Barnes -120 over Romero

Gay -120 over Love III

Wi -120 over Imada

Trahan Ev over Dufner

Vegas +115 over Matteson

Leishman +120 over Points

Verplank +105 over Love III

Molder -130 over Kirk

M. Wilson -125 over Goydos

Garrigus -115 over Stroud

Byrd +105 over Toms

AJLightning says:
07/06/11 10:51PM

1st Round Matchups

7101 Henry (-115) over Day (-115)

102 Garrigus (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2*

7106 Toms (+120) over Stricker (-150)

7118 Rollins (-115) over Slocum (-115) - 2*

 

Tournament Matchups

7003 Howell III (Ev) over Toms (-130) - 2*

7006 Marino (-105) over Cink (-125) - 2*

7021 Vegas (+110) over Matteson (-140) - 2*

7039 Garrigus (-125) over Stroud (-105) - 2*

7048 Byrd (+150) over Toms (-180) - 2*

 

 

 

 GL to all

AJLightning says:
07/06/11 11:21PM

Jarrett75 says:
07/06/11 11:36PM
I can't find what injury Slocum was coming off of. I assume that's your angle going against him. Good luck tomorrow.
AJLightning says:
07/06/11 11:49PM

Not sure if he's hurt...but I know he had last week off. Rollin' with Rollins and his momentum!

That Henry/Day line is crazy! Day should be the fav. there. We'll see how that one turns out!

 

 GL Jarrett

Jarrett75 says:
07/06/11 11:56PM


yeah that one is interesting. My book has Day vs Cink, really thinking of taking Day or Rollins. I thought Slocum pulled out last week due to injury, but not sure. I know he withdrew, guess I just assumed injury was the reason.
WeMoveLines says:
07/07/11 12:01AM

Like that Byrd vs Toms play for tourney.. Great value too..

 GL AJ

stats1 says:
07/07/11 12:03AM
best of luck buddy   as we get ready 4 the British open
soonabooma says:
07/07/11 05:27AM
Any leans for top 5 finish? 
BDUBB says:
07/07/11 07:50AM
Bluefin says:
07/07/11 09:33AM
No play on the Scottish AJ ?
AJLightning says:
07/07/11 12:01PM

WOW....both Garrigus and Toms WD after 9 holes. That affected 5 out of my 9 plays...3 losers and 2 winners...assholes!!!

 

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 12:03PM

Can't wait...The Open is my second favorite Major behind the Masters. The Open is a TRUE test is golf skills!!

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 12:05PM

Nope, sorry man. My two books don't offer Top 5 or Top 10 anymore.

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 12:07PM

Naw....maybe this weekend after I see how things shake out the first two rounds. I'll have to look and see if anything jumps out.

 GL this week BLUE!

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 08:48PM

1st Round Matchups

7101 Henry (-115) over Day (-115)     1 shot

102 Garrigus (-110) over Gay (-120) - 2*     WD

7106 Toms (+120) over Stricker (-150)     WD

7118 Rollins (-115) over Slocum (-115) - 2* 

 

Tournament Matchups

7003 Howell III (Ev) over Toms (-130) - 2* 

7006 Marino (-105) over Cink (-125) - 2*    8 up

7021 Vegas (+110) over Matteson (-140) - 2*    1 down 

7039 Garrigus (-125) over Stroud (-105) - 2*     WD

7048 Byrd (+150) over Toms (-180) - 2* 

 

Sinking like the Titanic!! Mayday......Mayday.......

 

 

 

199-215-46 YTD

+7.00 Units

Waxi says:
07/07/11 09:26PM
You liked Day and Stricker for the tournament yet went against them in the first round?
AJLightning says:
07/07/11 09:31PM

2nd Round Matchups

7201 Blanks (-115) over Driscoll (-115) - 5*

7205 Romero (-110) over Molder (-120) - 2*

7214 Goydos (+110) over Love III (-140)

7216 M. Wilson (+160) over Stricker (-190)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 09:42PM

The tournament is not won on the first day.  

Liked the value with Toms 1st rd., thought he would start off good because the course suits his game well.

The Henry/Day matchup was confusing to me. Day should have been the big fav. there. A pick em'??? Seemed to easy to take Day. 1 shot is pretty damn close if you ask me.

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 11:02PM

 

AJLightning says:
07/07/11 11:32PM

Hey BLUE...would love to hear your thoughts on the Blanks/Driscoll matchup?

AgainstDaConsen says:
07/07/11 11:58PM
tailed you on blanks over driscol for 1u

got one of my own for the scottish open 2nd rd

rock over edfors +118

GL to us...

you like rory to win the british... i got a local who is gonna give me +700... but its a 2k minimum bet...  Worth a shot?


Europa says:
07/08/11 01:28AM

Better day on 2nd round, good luck AJ.

Bluefin says:
07/08/11 08:23AM

AJ does your YTD caculate lost juice? My figures differ slightly from yours seeing as we are doing each others math.

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 09:35AM

Well if your keeping up with both of ours, then were really in trouble! 

If the match is -130...I will bet 1.3 units to win 1.0....if it's +130 then I bet 1.0 to win 1.3...pretty standard stuff.

I'm not keeping up with your shit, believe me I have my own problems....I just noticed you didn't count that Phil matchup in your daily figure....no biggie Boss!

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 09:40AM

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 09:43AM

May add another unit on Goydos....he's up to +125 now!! Public pounding Love III after the best round he's had in awhile. Just think Goydos has some good vibes on this track.

Jarrett75 says:
07/08/11 09:46AM
I like it as well Goydos plays the course well and like you said that was the best round Love has had. It's about the only matchup I liked on the board. Good luck today AJ.
Bluefin says:
07/08/11 11:49AM

BDUBB Blanks dosen't look to sharp today but good luck haven't seen you on here in awhile

Bluefin says:
07/11/11 01:59PM
At least there are still no red figures in the YTD category. I would say that is quite an accomplishment given it represents 268 plays.Keep fighting AJ the wind blows in waves.
Jarrett75 says:
07/10/11 04:19PM
I had Janzen and he looked good till he threw up a 7 on 17 and now 14 feet from par to win. Looks like it will be a push.
Jarrett75 says:
07/10/11 06:31PM
I stayed away from Molder/Marino. That one could have gone either way. Otherwise not a bad day, 1 shot loss a push that should have been a win and a win. Good luck next week.
Jarrett75 says:
07/08/11 08:28PM


dude take a break and maybe pick still but don't play. You are too good usually to lose for long. You will get it back. I am still searching for my mojo that I lost almost a year ago in all sports. Good luck on whatever you decide to do.
Jarrett75 says:
07/08/11 11:29PM
Here I will make you feel better AJ.

Lost Straight Wager   $160.50 / $200.63


 Davis Love III 1 vs Paul Goydos 0(PGA

John Deere Classic 2nd Round Matchups)

Paul Goydos +125

Lost Straight Wager   $80.00 / $100.00


 Davis Love III 1 vs Paul Goydos 0(PGA

John Deere Classic 2nd Round Matchups)

Paul Goydos +125

Lost Straight Wager   $80.00 / $100.00


 Davis Love III 1 vs Paul Goydos 0(PGA

John Deere Classic 2nd Round Matchups)

Paul Goydos +125

And last but not least...

Lost Straight Wager   $1102.18 / $847.83


 Diamondbacks (I Kennedy) 7 vs

Cardinals (K Lohse) 6

Cardinals -130


You see how much I suck and can't keep my mojo. You are so much better at golf picks. Good luck tomorrow.

Jarrett75 says:
07/09/11 11:24AM
what are you leans for today AJ?

I liked the JJ Henry matchup over Campbell, I went with it after seeing Blue liked it as well.
Jarrett75 says:
07/10/11 11:22AM
GL dude. It's like a basketball player, if you don't shoot you won't ever get out of a slump. Get em
qball1324 says:
07/08/11 11:08AM
Blanks better step up his game quick as he is down 3 going to the back 9
qball1324 says:
07/08/11 12:23PM

rough tournament so far

AgainstDaConsen says:
07/08/11 12:14PM
blanks just needs 5 stright birdies again... it could happen

rock is 5 up after 8 on edfors...

FYI, I hit that Rory Future... Thx for the Help 
AgainstDaConsen says:
07/10/11 01:35PM
took stricker over de jonge -193 for .5u

gl on rest of your plays
AgainstDaConsen says:
07/10/11 03:17PM

lol. its pretty much already a winner... stricker 4up after 6.... Will be better the british heavily. hope you pick it u next week...  I am up again this week and my leans have been rock solid... Cant afford not to play the British Heavily... FYI, I like Martin Laird alot at St Georges
michaelpaul1 says:
07/10/11 09:21AM
how about couch over da points?
BDUBB says:
07/10/11 11:30AM
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 10:56AM
Thinking about taking Goydos over Points in the ESPN Streak
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 11:44AM
Driscoll playing well makes me laugh.



For the record I'm also on Blanks.
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 10:03AM
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 03:37PM
Now hoping Goydos misses the cut.....
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 03:55PM
Really frustrating to watch with Points missing birdie putts all over the place and this jackass can't come close to a par....
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 02:54PM
Suck a dick Goydos.
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 02:56PM
Nice double on 4, jerk off.
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 02:59PM
Already 5 shots back through 4 holes, it was nice knowing you Streak......
BDUBB says:
07/08/11 03:00PM
D.A. Points playing well is about as funny as Driscoll.
AJLightning says:
07/08/11 03:22PM

Ya, this is crazy!!

I think I'm done for awhile...thinking to much about this shit and it's not good.

Paralysis by Analysis...just like my golf game

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 12:32PM

Figures...I go against one of my rules and Blanks Tanks!! Classic High/Low leaderboard play got me...it is kind of funny that Driscoll is playing good today. He couldn't do shit yesterday...I really believed Blanks would continue to play good. No way I saw this coming, at least not in the 2nd round.

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 12:36PM

I'm taking that one too....

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 10:29AM

 

Thanks Jarrett!! 

Hope it goes up even more. I've had some sucess this year playing these big dogs that make big moves like this.

AJLightning says:
07/08/11 10:30AM

 

  GL DUBB!!

AJLightning says:
07/10/11 12:04PM

I hear ya man...frustrating, but you got to keep doing what you do. Just need to quit over thinking these matchups.

AJLightning says:
07/10/11 12:27PM

Trailing BLUE and his hot streak with the Janzen pick!

AJLightning says:
07/10/11 01:18PM

Marino 4 over...got to find a magic 8-ball so I can cap for those things.

 

AJLightning says:
07/10/11 11:20AM

Final Round Matchups

7401 Points (-115) over Couch (-115)

7405 Marino (-110) over Molder (-120)

7407 Janzen (Ev) over Mallinger (-130) - 2*

7415 Tringale (-115) over D. Wilson (-115)

 

Even though I've been losing my ass the last few tournaments and I need to take an extended break, I just can't stay away. Hopefully I can get it going again....soon!

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 02:08PM

how about 470 total plays....but who's counting??

Thanks for the kind words BLUE!! Good luck in the Open!!

AJLightning says:
07/10/11 01:38PM

6 over...fucked me in the contest too

AJLightning says:
07/10/11 01:39PM

Good luck on that...lock or not, it's too juicy for me.

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 01:49PM

2nd Round Matchups

7201 Blanks (-115) over Driscoll (-115) - 5* 

7205 Romero (-110) over Molder (-120) - 2* 

7214 Goydos (+110) over Love III (-140) 

7216 M. Wilson (+160) over Stricker (-190) 

 

Final Round Matchups

7401 Points (-115) over Couch (-115)     1 Shot

7405 Marino (-110) over Molder (-120)   

7407 Janzen (Ev) over Mallinger (-130) - 2*    PUSH

7415 Tringale (-115) over D. Wilson (-115)    

 

Tournament Matchups

7006 Marino (-105) over Cink (-125) - 2* 

7021 Vegas (+110) over Matteson (-140) - 2*  

 

Well, I tore up the tournament matchups hitting 4 out of 5...H2H matchups were a whole different story. This is the life of gambling, ups and downs and there ISN'T NOTHING EASY ABOUT IT!!

 

 

 

202-221-47 YTD

+0.00 Units

pdc says:
07/08/11 11:18AM
blanks is done.....we need a miracle
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