AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - The Open Championship**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 02:06 PM   101 comments
The Open is at Royal St. George's is Kent, UK this year. Not one of the best tracks in the rotation, but good enough for the Open. It's a Par 71 course that stretches about 7,100 yds. As with any Open Championship, Par is a great score on any hole. Still early in the week and I haven't seen the weather yet, but you want to look for guys that play good in the wind and guys that hit a lot a fairways and greens.
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scsiegel89 says:
07/11/11 02:13PM
Par 70. They changed it
AJLightning says:
07/11/11 02:25PM

Where does it say that?

According to The Open website, it's Par 71...http://www.pga.com/openchampionship/2011/index.cfm

Three Par 5's

Four Par 3's

Eleven Par 4's

eastcoastbias12 says:
07/11/11 02:41PM
They changed the 4th from a par 5 to a par 4.....check out this link -

http://www.opengolf.com/en/TheCourse/CourseGuide.aspx
AJLightning says:
07/11/11 03:02PM

There's a mixup some where then.

The way I understand it is...the 4th is a Par 4. They moved the tees back about 30 yds. and made it a Par 5.

I guess some sites are behind in updating this....

eastcoastbias12 says:
07/11/11 03:31PM

The Fourth

At 495 yards, the fourth is an intimidating

prospect, especially when confronted with the towering bunker inset in

the hill in front of the tee. Once on the fairway, the mid-iron approach

will have to contend with a deep depression in the front-left quarter

of the green. Anyone over-hitting the ball to a hole at the back of the

putting surface risks the out-of-bounds fence, just a few yards away. In

2003, the hole was played as a par-five.


**Note the last line...it was a par 5, now playing to a 4.  Some sites are still using the 2003 scorecard info.

scsiegel89 says:
07/11/11 03:36PM
yuppp eastcoast is right
AJLightning says:
07/11/11 03:43PM

Thanks eastcoastbias12...figured I was reading some old info. I just started digging into it today anyway.

 

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 09:13PM

The best wind players are usually the ones that not only have lots of experience in these conditions, but also the ones that are the overall best ball strikers. Great ball strikers can achieve the necessary impact condition to control their trajectory. For these players, a lot of wind doesn't affect the ball as much as it will for others. This impact condition will see the clubshaft return forward, so the clubhead is descending and accelerating when it contacts the ball. In addition, great ball strikers can control their clubface so they can move the ball left-to-right or right-to-left to counter the wind.

thisguyiswise says:
07/11/11 09:20PM

who are some of these?

have a pool for westwood, mcdowell, goosen, and p. hanson jacobson wilson bryd (as opposed to a paddy or garcia group) dont know if thats smart but i like hanson and jacobson

is mcdowell over casey or kuchar a wise choice?

any advice helps
AJLightning says:
07/11/11 09:36PM

 

Casey, Kuchar 

Aussie's...most of the Euro's...you can also check the Valero leaderboard from this year. It was windy as hell that week.

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 09:58PM

you can also go to pgatour.com/stats and look up the ball striking stat....

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 10:26PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Westwood +105 over McIlroy

Day -110 over Sergio

Watney -140 over Phil

Kuchar -125 over Stricker

Goosen -130 over Paddy

Choi -120 over Schwartzel

Rose -140 over Els

Casey -120 over Poulter

Bubba -110 over Quiros

Laird -130 over Furyk

Howell III -115 over Fowler

Westwood -120 over Donald

Woodland +110 over Ogilvy

Laird -115 over Oosthuizen

Jacobson -130 over Stenson

Stricker -140 over Phil

Donald Ev over McIlroy

 

bold plays are stronger leans...really like Watney over Phil. Phil has been a no show as of late. Casey is one of the best wind players around. Laird over Furyk may be a big play. Laird with a Top 10 at the wind blown Valero earlier this year and Furyk is M.I.A.. Jacobson is another great wind player.

AgainstDaConsen says:
07/11/11 10:38PM
I like stricker alot but I am hooing there will be a line against someone where its a bit easier... Stenson and Phil and not to people I want to fade in favor of stricker... 

I have a heavy lean of Garcia over Day, so we might be on opposite sides of tht one..

GL
thisguyiswise says:
07/11/11 10:42PM
thx for the valero info, makes me like jacobson even more even though a lot of the big dogs didnt play in that one.

just torn between mcdowell and casey for my b player
AJLightning says:
07/11/11 10:50PM

locking this in now!!

 

Top Amateur

Lewis (-120) - 5*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 10:53PM

 

I know a lot of guys didn't play the Valero, but a lot of them did. Just gives you an idea of what type of player it will take to suceed this week.

I'd go with Casey for your B player.

 

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 10:56PM

I like Stricker this week too, but not in any matchups given. Maybe Stricker over Phil. Maybe....

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 11:09PM

Anyone like Quiros +350 for Top Spaniard?

Or Jacobson +325 for Top Swede?

 

 

ZonaCats says:
07/11/11 11:37PM
What about Rory to win it? He grew up playing in also windy and neighboring Ireland. He's on fire right now and came in 3rd at last year's British. 
AJLightning says:
07/11/11 11:41PM

Don't like him to win this week.

Two Major's in a row?? I doubt it....

AJLightning says:
07/11/11 11:42PM

 

BTW....I love the avatar!!!

     

WeMoveLines says:
07/12/11 12:29AM

If I could steer you off one it'd be Goosen over Paddy..

But I really like your Laird plays.. So bold those up..

BOL AJ.

WeMoveLines says:
07/12/11 12:32AM
Just checked some stuff on the '3 favs'.. Like your Westwood plays against the other 2 (Rory and Luke Donald).. Bio's are in your favor on that one..
AJLightning says:
07/12/11 09:11AM

Laird over Furyk for sure...Laird over Oosthuizen I like, but not as much as the first one.

BL

AJLightning says:
07/12/11 09:17AM

Bio's??

AJLightning says:
07/12/11 01:38PM

 

Oh....Biorhythms. I got you now. And where would one find such information??

AJLightning says:
07/12/11 06:59PM

a couple of props I'm looking at. Discussion welcome!

 

To Make the Cut

T. Lewis (-120)

 

To Miss the Cut

Furyk (+110)

Fowler (+115)

Els (+120)

Phil (+200)

 

Top 10

P. Hanson (+550)

Van Pelt (+800)

T. Lewis (+2200)

AJLightning says:
07/12/11 09:16PM

1st Round Leans:

Woodland -105 over Bjorn

Quiros -130 over Moore

Ogilvy -120 over Jimenez

Manassero -120 over Cabrera

Poulter -115 over Dustin

Sergio +120 over Donald

Davis -120 over Villegas

P. Hanson -120 over Fisher

Jamienson -120 over Campbell

Howell III -110 over E. Molinari

Day -105 over McDowell

Love III Ev over Allenby

Rock -110 over Simpson

 

 

sharpstick says:
07/13/11 12:44AM


Yes  
AgainstDaConsen says:
07/13/11 12:56AM
I found the perfect play

Stricker position Under 27th... -115

as for your first round matchups nothing caught my eye but I do really like Davis Over Villgas... and I like that you have some confidence in Ogilvy to play well... was considering a top 10 play for him... 

I lean strongly against quiros as I dont elieve his game is well suited to the course... or the Open in general... I will not be placing a single bet on him the whole championship... 

GL, let me know about the stricker play I have already hit it but want to add to it... 
AJLightning says:
07/13/11 09:38AM

Not sure about your Stricker play. I don't expect him to win, but I can see a top 30 finish for sure. He's just to good of a ball striker not to play well at St. George's.

I think Ogilvy is getting closer to regaining his form again. He is also a good wind player.

I actually like any bomber this week, including Quiros. The course is dry and fast right now. They hardly got any rain the last few months and the rough is really weak. So that means they can kill their drives with no regard to the rough. If they do get rain and high winds later on in the week, that plays into the bombers hands.

I see a lot of scoring this week and I predict the winning score to be under par.

 

 GL this week Slick!

toasty says:
07/14/11 09:20PM
sadly, it's all about starting time on thursday and friday. it's the worst thing about the british open and it seems to be an issue every year.
fightingillini says:
07/14/11 07:17PM

Nice plays on Lewis, can make some nice change if he stays up there

 

Saw your Van Pelt wager for the tourney, hoping he can turn it around tomorrow.  Really thought he might have a monster tourney. 

happycap says:
07/14/11 08:23PM

No PW these were today's plays and be thankful you didn't get a chance to consider playing them lol... 3-4 day.

happycap says:
07/14/11 02:10PM

Ya disappointing.  Should have stuck with hammering Kaymer... a few minutes away from cashing that on barring any shocking miscues on the 18th green... 3-4 overall down a bit over a unit.

happycap says:
07/14/11 02:11PM
Lewis playing GREAT - good call
happycap says:
07/14/11 02:12PM
BTW two of the guys I faded are now #1 and #2 in the event
happycap says:
07/13/11 05:22PM

AJ I usually like to put together a list of significant line moves on the head to head by round board at Pinny and play them blindly.  Not being a golf capper such as you are I have found I can usually make money simply playing the line moves each morning.  I will definitely be seeking your advice on a few this weekend and would like to begin with this one:

McIlroy -189 over Fowler (Pinny)

Seems like a bit of a no brainer given Mac's current form... your thoughts?

 

happycap says:
07/13/11 05:38PM
Also, do you see any value in McIlroy TOP 20 -205??
happycap says:
07/13/11 07:20PM
Right on.  I will look elsewhere, just wondered about Rickie Fowler as a competitor since I don't know his game.  I have made the money (yes, as we discussed in 2009) playing into line moves, so Els goes from -124 to -132 overnight, I hit Els... no capping whatsoever and very small amounts for some interest strictly.
happycap says:
07/13/11 10:41PM

I share your basic philosophy on betting dogs.  However, there are two things that give me reason to believe this could have merit: First, its Pinny, and a LOT of Pinny moves are sharp moves, compared to the average book... Pinny is where the pros play (outside of the US that is)... Second, I am not talking about name players, I never took Tiger when he went -165 to -185 lol... no, it was the journeyman on the toor, Tom Lehman v. Furyk or Ames v. Montgomery... you get the picture... obviously these lines were being moved by people who knew their stuff.  I recall it worked about 3 weeks out of the 4 that I posted during majors... I will post some plays if I take any and we can put them under the microscope again this year.

happycap says:
07/13/11 10:42PM
lol *tour*
happycap says:
07/13/11 11:11PM

Just checked back in and one has EXPLODED ... Matt Kuchar was -119 over Paddy H. 5 or 6 hours ago, is now -134

That is an even bigger move than I am used to seeing and playing...

happycap says:
07/13/11 11:13PM

#2 Kaymer over Phil went from -120 to -133 in the same time frame...

I will play both if I don't hear anyone here warning me off of either play in the next half hour or so.

happycap says:
07/13/11 11:15PM
I think the Phil fade speaks for itself, Kaymer being among the top faves doesn't hurt that momentum...
happycap says:
07/13/11 11:28PM
Ya more interested in hammering that Kaymer line
happycap says:
07/13/11 11:31PM

Just locked it in first round matchup: -133

good luck with all your plays AJ and I will keep an eye on things and let you know if I see any other anomalies in the morning.  Thanks for your efforts, your golf threads are always a must read for me

happycap says:
07/14/11 01:59AM

Can't be bothered starting a new thread so here's what moved enough to catch my attention and get me invested:

Woodland -119 over Bjorn (was +105)

Ogilvy -114 over Jimenez

Cink -104 over Molinari (was +103)

Cabrera -105 over Manassero (was +102)

Retief -130 over Mahan

Davis -119 over Villegas

Kaymer -133 over Phil (was -121)

...wish me blind luck

Jarrett75 says:
07/13/11 11:17PM
gl this weekend.
Jarrett75 says:
07/15/11 06:33AM
aj don't worry you aren't the only one to over think it. Yesterday I took Laird over Van Pelt and won. Then I let myself talk myself talk me out of taking Kamyer over Phil. I took Westwood over Stricker.  So last night I won a nice parlay and just knew I was going to take Kaymer over Phil, then I see others picking Phil and once again allowed myself to over think it and took McDowell over Day. Kaymer may not win, but McDowell is 6 back and shooting a +5. We all do it to ourselves. Good luck.
clepto says:
07/13/11 10:39PM
 this week AJ
clepto says:
07/14/11 12:07AM
Really loving Lee v Rory and Peter v Y.E. for the tournament.
AgainstDaConsen says:
07/13/11 01:02PM
Its not that i think the rough will be an issue I just think with the wind the way it is they will be hitting out of the rough on nearly every approach... I know the current state of golf might make St Goerges look silly but I still dont have confidence in players who will be hitting from the rough constantly unless there name is Phil... Even then Phil has added a knockdown driver to his bag of triks, I imagine that will come into play alot for him... I dont know if the Quiros woodland and d. johnson have that in there bag yet... 

Furyk is playing so poorly right now I would call him close to a guearentee to miss the cut exspecially if he gets a round where the wind is gusting... 
Oscarxena says:
07/14/11 04:49PM

Shake it off AJ on the first round, a lot of tournament left to handicap, kick that books ass tomorrow buddy.

BDUBB says:
07/14/11 07:46AM
BDUBB says:
07/14/11 11:27PM
more4us says:
07/13/11 11:25PM
johncapper750 says:
07/14/11 12:00AM
do you like McIlroy over Fowler tomorrow?
Waxi says:
07/14/11 07:11AM

Weather not as bad as predicted.

AJ you have been supporting Ryan Moore consistently all year...

unclebruce says:
07/14/11 02:51AM
great read guys, thanks...
si1ly says:
07/13/11 11:20PM
make that cheddar AJ.. your golf threads are always a pleasure to read



AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:53PM

 

Thanks man! It's nice to know some of you actually like my threads and that my efforts don't go unnoticed. Much appreciated! 

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:25PM

Nevermind...I found it. I was looking at tourny matchups. I got 1st Rd. Kuchar -140 over Paddy. Layed off because of the juice and the unknown with Paddy.

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:27PM

Thanks Jarrett!! Same to you bro!

 

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:28PM

You know it holmes!! Got to make that cabbage!!

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:30PM

 

Yes...out of the two, I would go with Kaymer over Phil

 

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 10:58PM

 

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:20PM

 

I really like Kuchar there! Neither of my books have that one.

Phil fade is automatic!!

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 09:50AM
I think I'm going to hammer Furyk to miss the cut.....
AJLightning says:
07/13/11 10:26AM

 

I think I read this wrong the first time...is this for him to finish between 1st and 27th??

If so, then I would pound it too!!

 

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:12AM

FYI....

 

SANDWICH, England -- High wind might force tournament officials to move up some tees Thursday in the first round of the British Open at Royal St. George's.

Gusts up to 30 mph are forecast, making some fairways and the long par-3 11th unreachable for many players.

Peter Dawson, chief executive of the Royal and Ancient, says No. 7, a par 5, and No. 11 are among the holes that could be shortened.


Copyright 2011 by The Associated Press

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 08:30PM

I may be wrong and this is just my opinion, but I have started to think it was the public making these moves. You can probably agree most of the bigger moves are on big names. So my thinking was, this was Joe Blow hitting the guys he knew. So I would go against it. And most, if not all of the time they were big dogs. And dogs with a bite you know? Always take a dog with a good bite, one that can fight back and give you good value on your bet.

It was working early in the year and now it's not. I may just ride it out all year and see what happens. But not this week. I feel good about my plays this week.

 

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 07:13PM

I remember you talking about this a year or two ago. Do you go with the movement or against it? I've been having some sucess going against the movement, especially on big names in big tournaments.

I like that matchup against Fowler, but too juicy for me.

The McIlroy Top 20 is juicy also, and I wouldn't do it. He's already admitted to not liking links style golf courses. Ya he's playing well, but with the weather being like it will be, anything can happen.

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 11:16PM

1st Round Matchups

7106 Quiros (-125) over Moore (-105)

7127 Davis (-120) over Villegas (-110)

7130 P. Hanson (-120) over Fisher (-110)

7150 Day (-105) over McDowell (-125)

7156 Love III (Ev) over Allenby (-130)

 

Tournament Matchups

7001 Westwood (-115) over McIlroy (-115) - 2*

7009 Kuchar (-120) over Stricker (-110) - 2*

7016 Choi (+130) over Schwartzel (-160) - 2*

7026 Laird (-130) over Furyk (Ev) - 5*

7075 P. Hanson (-130) over Fowler (Ev) - 2*

 

Top Amateur

Lewis (-120) - 5*

 

To Miss the Cut (1u ea.)

Furyk (+110)

Phil (+200)

 

Number of Players to Finish the Tournament Under Par (1u)

Under 5.5 (-120)

 

 

 

That's it folks! Kind of heavy, but it IS The Open!! Good luck everyone!  

AJLightning says:
07/13/11 09:40PM

 

He's a playa! Just won a tournament at St. Andrews with a 9 under, 279. In cold and windy conditions!! Lost in a playoff at the New South Wales Open last November, then placed 12th at the Australian Open. He's obviously got game!

You think Uihlein can handle the weather? How about blind boy Hinton?

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 09:22AM

I wanted the bomber...didn't work out this time. 

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 01:01PM

Props looking good, tourny matchups are looking decent, but the slide continues with the H2H matchups.....arrrgghhhhh  

glad I went small to start off....

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 02:56PM

I didn't hit ONE 1st round matchup!!! It's almost laughable now. What am I supposed to do? Fade myself?? LOL...once I do that, it will probably turn and go the other way.

Oh well, there's always tomorrow and some hope in the tourny matchups.

 

    

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 02:58PM

Thanks man! At least I got that going for me and the number of players to finish under par prop looks golden!!!

 

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 01:03PM

About 50/50 huh?

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 01:14PM

Nope, sorry. I didn't even have anything offered at my two books besides To Win futures.

To much focus on The Open to mess with that this week.

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 08:59PM

1st Round Matchups

7106 Quiros (-125) over Moore (-105) 

7127 Davis (-120) over Villegas (-110) 

7130 P. Hanson (-120) over Fisher (-110) 

7150 Day (-105) over McDowell (-125) 

7156 Love III (Ev) over Allenby (-130) 

 

Tournament Matchups

7001 Westwood (-115) over McIlroy (-115) - 2*    Even

7009 Kuchar (-120) over Stricker (-110) - 2*    5 down

7016 Choi (+130) over Schwartzel (-160) - 2*    Even

7026 Laird (-130) over Furyk (Ev) - 5*    Even

7075 P. Hanson (-130) over Fowler (Ev) - 2*    3 down

 

Top Amateur

Lewis (-120) - 5*   

 

To Miss the Cut (1u ea.)

Furyk (+110)    1 under the projected cut

Phil (+200)    1 over the projected cut   

 

Number of Players to Finish the Tournament Under Par (1u)

Under 5.5 (-120)  

 

 

Very disappointed with the H2H matchups. The sad part is, I really felt good about them too....

Press on...

 

 

 

202-226-47 YTD

-5.70 Units

AJLightning says:
07/14/11 11:25PM

2nd Round Matchups

7204 Holmes (-110) over Barnes (-120)

7217 Glover (Ev) over Karlsson (-130)

7241 Casey (-120) over Baddeley (-110)

 

 

 

InCash says:
07/13/11 08:32PM
Tell us why so big on Tom Lewis.  He is -110 as top amateur at my book.
stats1 says:
07/14/11 05:23PM
play a smaller then normal card 2morrow just 2 b safe...    Lewis play looks GREATTTTT.
stats1 says:
07/13/11 02:42PM
hammer all 1st round matchup's  against furyk  he is currently a trainwreck has lost it between the ears!!!!!   best of luck 2 all
stats1 says:
07/13/11 09:47PM
       this might b the safest bet on the board...   i think he will probably b the only amateur to make the cut...
I_Need_A_Detox says:
07/13/11 10:50PM

i like it .... interested in seeing what you come up with

best of luck with your plays AJ

Earhog says:
07/15/11 02:43AM
Ill follow you on the Glover pick.... I got it at +105.. looks like good value

Earhog says:
07/15/11 07:51AM
Good call on Glover

BOL in your other picks
Bluefin says:
07/16/11 07:41PM

I am also on all of those but Lewis you beat me to it have not posted yet!

 

 

 

willydollas says:
07/16/11 09:26PM
dustin over fowler looks great.  Sergio has been good besides his putter but I'm not picking on Mcelroy
AJLightning says:
07/16/11 08:30PM

 

I hope it works out for us. I need a good day! Should be very entertaining tomorrow.

   

AJLightning says:
07/16/11 07:35PM

Final Round Matchups

7406 Lewis (-105) over Ikeda (-125)

7407 Van Pelt (-125) over Bubba (-105)

7411 Sergio (+120) over McIlroy (-150)

7432 Love III (-115) over Coetzee (-115)

7437 Dustin (-120) over Fowler (-110)

7440 Clarke (-115) over Bjorn (-115)

 

Sunday 6 Pack!! Good luck fellas, tomorrow is going to be an exciting ride!!!  

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/17/11 12:21PM

 

I know right...with Bubba's high ball flight, I thought Van Pelt would take him today. Tough to cap with the weather the way it is.

AJLightning says:
07/17/11 01:37PM

2nd Round Matchups

7204 Holmes (-110) over Barnes (-120) 

7217 Glover (Ev) over Karlsson (-130) 

7241 Casey (-120) over Baddeley (-110) 

 

Final Round Matchups

7406 Lewis (-105) over Ikeda (-125) 

7407 Van Pelt (-125) over Bubba (-105) 

7411 Sergio (+120) over McIlroy (-150) 

7432 Love III (-115) over Coetzee (-115) 

7437 Dustin (-120) over Fowler (-110)  PUSH

7440 Clarke (-115) over Bjorn (-115) 

 

Tournament Matchups

7001 Westwood (-115) over McIlroy (-115) - 2* 

7009 Kuchar (-120) over Stricker (-110) - 2* 

7016 Choi (+130) over Schwartzel (-160) - 2* 

7026 Laird (-130) over Furyk (Ev) - 5* 

7075 P. Hanson (-130) over Fowler (Ev) - 2* 

 

Top Amateur

Lewis (-120) - 5* 

 

To Miss the Cut (1u ea.)

Furyk (+110)   

Phil (+200) 

 

Number of Players to Finish the Tournament Under Par (1u)

Under 5.5 (-120) 

 

 

 

208-233-48 YTD

-13.65 Units

AJLightning says:
07/17/11 11:09AM

 

Sure did!! Good picking STATS!

 

AJLightning says:
07/17/11 11:10AM

Uihlein showed me something this week...he gave Tom a run for low amateur! I'm impressed!

 

wHo-CaReS says:
07/16/11 02:23AM
does anyone here know the how the weather is.must be bad. i see a prop were kaymer 3rd round score under 72.5 (-130). i kind of like it. well ilike it alot which doesnt fair well for me when that happens
stats1 says:
07/15/11 02:42PM
not bad 2-1 missed 3-0 by holmes getting a 7 on the par 5 14     hopefully we can hammer the books Saturday....
stats1 says:
07/17/11 11:04AM
we won the tom lewis play great job!!!!
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