AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - RBC Canadian Open**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Monday, July 18, 2011 09:14 PM   67 comments
The TOUR heads off to a hell of a track this week! Old school, dog legged, tree lined Shaughnessy Golf and Country Club in Vancouver, British Columbia. It's a beautiful Par 70 with small greens...a ball strikers paradise!
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AJLightning says:
07/18/11 09:19PM

Thoughts on fading guys that were in The Open?

AJLightning says:
07/18/11 09:28PM

Regardless if they played last week or not (that can be debated later), here's a few I like this week:

 

Donald

Schwartzel

Fowler

Kuchar

Moore

Kim

Gay

Campbell

Glover

Mahan

Atwal

Sabbatini

Baird

 

All shot makers and this course suits them very well!

JWatt26 says:
07/18/11 09:50PM
AJ - Will probably be capping this event more than any other on the schedule this year. Know the track well and have tickets for the Thursday round (out of town the rest of the week ).

Lets make some this week!
JWatt26 says:
07/18/11 10:10PM


Some initial thoughts:

Donald - Course fits his game perfectly and he is very familiar with the city and course. Has been playing in Vancouver since the GVO tourney days... Missed cut at the British, should only further his desire to play well here this weekend.

Schwartzel - First timer in this event and rumor is that he and his buddy Oosthuizen are vacationing up in Kelowna with their better halves following the tournament. Could be a few distractions for both during the week if their families have tagged along. Love Schwartzel's game but I'm not sure if this is the week for him, will be following him regardless for a while on Thursday (since he won me some major coin @ 110 - 1 during the Masters).

Fowler - Played very well the past weekend, this could be his coming out party or I could also see this as a letdown spot. I see him starting slowly on Thursday, peaking on Friday/Saturday and faltering on Sunday if he's in the mix.

Kuchar - Another RBC sponsored player, gotta think he rebounds from a dreadful British Open. Placed 14th here in 2005.

Moore - I will defiantly be taking a flyer on him to win this weekend. A great player who is playing solid golf at the moment. T28 at British and 2nd at the Travelers before that. He also finish in a tie for 2nd here in 2005 and this tourney is close to home (Seattle native)!

Kim - His game is rounding into form, but I'm pretty indifferent about his chance this week. Don't think he will be in the mix come Sunday.

Gay - Course sets up for him nicely with the small greens. On of the best hitting fairways and avoiding bogeys, which is necessary on courses like this. However, he has a shitty track record in Canada. I think he will be a public favourite, gonna stay away.

All I have time for right now... Look forward to your picks this week AJ.
AJLightning says:
07/19/11 09:19AM

 

Right on Eh!!

Good luck!  

fightingillini says:
07/19/11 12:19PM
Any thoughts on Van Pelt?  Thought he was gonna have a nice Open Championship.  I was way off on that, though the last round made it look horrible.
WeMoveLines says:
07/19/11 12:20PM

Nice write-ups JWatt! Wish I was in Van this week/weekend I would've gone too....

GL on your plays AJ

WeMoveLines says:
07/19/11 12:21PM

Nice write-ups JWatt! Wish I was in Van this week/weekend I would've gone too....

GL on your plays AJ

AJLightning says:
07/19/11 01:14PM

IMO...guys that do well at Colonial, should do well here too.

 

AJLightning says:
07/19/11 01:41PM

 

Not sold on Van Pelt's form. Still looks to be off. And from what I'm reading, he stinks on Poa greens. He's a pass for me and may even fade him if the matchup is right.

fightingillini says:
07/19/11 01:57PM

Yeah was thinking the same plus not much value in outright win for him.  Laying off him this week as well, hopefully doesn't bite me in the ass

AJLightning says:
07/19/11 02:59PM

 

I seriously doubt he wins this week. Besides, there's plenty of other players out there with a shot.

What's your thoughts on fading guys that played last week?

Maybe fade some of them in tournament matchups? Last week was brutal, plus the flight back over with hardly any time off has got to wear on you.

fightingillini says:
07/19/11 05:39PM

Well last week was a crapshoot and it may carry over to this week with the amount of guys that are coming back over to play in this event.  Alot of guys take at least a week or two off after the Open, so wouldn't be shocked with another longshot coming in this week. 

I play more tourney winners and 1st round leaders, but will check out some of the matchups.  I am shooting myself for throwing Donald and Rory in last weeks wager to win, thought would be hedging a bit.  At least Kirk won the Viking or would have been a crap weekend for me.

Not sure how you handicap Kuchar after missing the cut plus flying back.  Should be interesting to see who comes out firing.  One guy I am playing this week will be Mahan.  Everytime I play him or Verplank I think they miss the cut, headache city 

AJLightning says:
07/19/11 09:15PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Kuchar Ev over Donald

Crane +120 over Glover

Campbell -120 over Gay

Casey -130 over Els

Pettersson +115 over Levin

Pernice Jr. -115 over Adams

K. Bradley +105 over Romero

Cauley +110 over Cantlay

Casey +110 over Gay

Kim +130 over Moore

AJLightning says:
07/19/11 09:24PM
Fowler is a BIG dog in a few matchups. Not sure if I will bite though...
AgainstDaConsen says:
07/20/11 01:04AM
love pernice jr over adams...

dont know why you would fade donald against kuchar... 

I like fading els.... will search for a bet for him to miss the cut... 

GL, hope you turn it around this week...


You know anything about this kid BIO KIM?  Like Cejka but cant just bet him against someone I know nothing about... 

I also like Gay Over Campbell, as I feel like Gay does well on Poa greens, will have to double check that though at somepoint tomorrow...

Also Chappell Over Leonard...

Thanks in advance for any thoughts
AJLightning says:
07/20/11 12:34PM

 

Looking for Kuchar to bounce back after his 1st missed cut all year. He also tied for 14th at this course in 2005. And Even money doesn't hurt either. I'm just thinking Donald is wearing thin and is bound to hit a wall soon.

B. Kim was playing good earlier in the year, but has since cooled off. I would take Cejka in that matchup. He is good on old school tracks.

 

AgainstDaConsen says:
07/20/11 12:58PM
thanks bud... big bet on cejka it is... 

Will be taking Donald to win, so cant bet Kuchar... Small plays on everything else...

GL tom
Bluefin says:
07/20/11 02:04PM
I agree Kuchar has had a great year and coming off his only missed cut it should motivate him to bear down but you must consider his current form is off a little and he also had a long week so travel and stress considered I cap it at even. Donald travels back and forth alot and  being in his home territory may have been less stressfull than Kuchar felt missing the cut after a long trip overseas.

Just sayin it's a shot that one of the two may be off but on any given day I would call the matchup at even money anyway.

BOL with your plays

Europa says:
07/20/11 02:24PM
Good luck, AJ!
AJLightning says:
07/20/11 10:36PM

1st Round Matchups

7106 Fowler (-110) over Schwartzel (-120)

7107 Moore (-120) over Mahan (-110)

7114 Pettersson (-120) over Furyk (-110)

 

Tournament Matchups

7008 Crane (+110) over Glover (-140) - 2*

7015 Pettersson (+115) over Levin (-145) - 2*

7022 Pernice Jr. (+130) over Adams (-160) - 2*

 

 

 

PhantomFlag says:
07/21/11 12:34AM

Giving Ogilivy a try this weekend, quiet year, with as much talent as any, figure he is motivated enough to go to Canada to play.

Geoff Ogilivy +6000

50 / 3000

Gee_Gee says:
07/21/11 02:31AM


I appreciate much of your analysis here, but I highly doubt that Brian Gay will be a "public fav" this week.  This isnt the NFL were talking about here.  Sure he is a great ball striker, but I highly doubt that hundreds of thousands of dollars are pouring in on Gay this week. 
WeMoveLines says:
07/21/11 02:37AM

With ya on Pettersson.. Against ya on Glover.. 1st Round..

GL this tourney

JWatt26 says:
07/21/11 03:10AM


Very true, I should have reworded it: "Covers Fav"... but you're right, it's not a reason to not take him... I just don't like his value in many of his full tourney matchups.
Jarrett75 says:
07/21/11 08:23AM
what are your thoughts on Molder over Levin or Chez over Atwal? Good

luck.

Oscarxena says:
07/21/11 09:27AM

Best of luck on your selections this week AJ, have a great tournament my friend.

 

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 09:49AM

 

No opinion on Molder over Levin...I actually like Atwal over Reavie 1st rd. I was going to play it, but wanted to keep the plays to a min. Atwal placed 10th here in 2005. I know it's 6 years ago, but you got to think he's a better player than he was back then. It also tells me he's comfortable on the greens. Chez has played great as of late, so I think that's why the line is inflated.

Good luck bro!!  

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 11:43AM

Bluefin - Thanks for the insight. I made it a no play. 

Europa - Same to ya!! 

PhantomFlag -   Good luck!

WeMoveLines - 

Bluefin says:
07/21/11 11:56PM
pm me what you saw and I'll tell you if I seen it
Bluefin says:
07/22/11 01:22PM

Come on Cookie birdie 18, please I can feel it come on Man!!!

Bluefin says:
07/22/11 01:41PM
UNF--KINGBELIEVABLE
Bluefin says:
07/22/11 10:25AM
Oh shit Ol Tom -4 Damn!
Bluefin says:
07/22/11 02:13PM
Kuch is taking the pipe looks like the energizer bunny finally ran down
Bluefin says:
07/22/11 03:41PM
I agree that the line stinks but I also favor Els he is just striking it too well and the putter seems to be working I'm thinking Casey is too far back and has tossed in the towell already
Bluefin says:
07/23/11 10:56AM

Oh shit! I didn't catch your plays in time. I'm opposite on Levin &Cantlay

BOL with the rest

Jarrett75 says:
07/22/11 08:33AM
gl today. I ended up taking Molder and won by a shot. I messed up though last night and took the Yankees big
AgainstDaConsen says:
07/22/11 12:44PM
we re on two of the same plays today...

gainey and fowler... 

AgainstDaConsen says:
07/23/11 01:32AM
On goydos as well... but took fowler again... god i wish the books gave him a matchup against someone else, I would eat the juice... but no, against schwartzel again... 
Oscarxena says:
07/23/11 09:32AM

Best of luck on the 3rd round plays AJ, I'm against you on a couple but I'm due to lose.

 

Oscarxena says:
07/24/11 12:13PM

Best of luck today AJ, I went with Glover but I am on your other three matchups!

Oscarxena says:
07/22/11 09:46AM
JWatt26 says:
07/22/11 02:50PM


Read my thread... but the line movement has me very concerned. It went from -130 to -113 in my book. If you can justify basing your play on a line movement, then this is a good spot. I still like Els though, but I could be wayyy off on my read of the two players
AJLightning says:
07/22/11 04:11PM

Well it's too late now. Just have to see how it turns out. It will be a "mental play" for the memory bank!

Your never too far back...see Two Gloves round today! He was WAY down the leaderboard.

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 10:13PM

The Senior Open Championship

2nd Round Matchups

2003 Cook (-120) over T. Watson (-110) - 5* 

2006 J. Haas (-120) over Funk (-110) - 2* 

 

 

Canadian Open

2nd Round Matchups

7004 Campbell (-125) over Rollins (-105) - 2* 

7010 Two Gloves (+115) over Wi (-145) 

7016 Fowler (-125) over Schwartzel (-105) - 2* 

 

Tournament Matchups

7008 Crane (+110) over Glover (-140) - 2*    EVEN

7015 Pettersson (+115) over Levin (-145) - 2*   

7022 Pernice Jr. (+130) over Adams (-160) - 2*  

 

Me  Fowler

 

 

 

212-238-49 YTD

-14.60 Units

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 10:22PM

 

Always good to gain knowledge for the future!

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 11:40PM

Moving Day Matchups

7301 Wi (-110) over Cantlay (-120)

7309 Glover (-115) over Levin (-115)

7315 Schwartzel (-115) over Fowler (-115) - 2*

7320 Goydos (-115) over Kelly (-115) - 2*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/24/11 12:21PM

 

 Good luck Bro!

AJLightning says:
07/24/11 05:23PM
AJLightning says:
07/24/11 05:33PM
Great drive on 18 Romero  
AJLightning says:
07/24/11 08:13PM

Moving Day Matchups

7301 Wi (-110) over Cantlay (-120) 

7309 Glover (-115) over Levin (-115) 

7315 Schwartzel (-115) over Fowler (-115) - 2* 

7320 Goydos (-115) over Kelly (-115) - 2* 

 

Final Round Matchups

7403 Levin (-120) over Glover (-110) 

7406 Tringale (-110) over Cantlay (-120)     1 shot

7414 Campbell (+110) over Moore (-140) - 2* 

7420 Romero (+110) over Ogilvy (-140) - 2*  PUSH

 

Tournament Matchups

7008 Crane (+110) over Glover (-140) - 2* 

 

 

 

216-242-50 YTD

-12.85 Units   

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 11:45AM

Right on man!!

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 07:38PM

Furyk is back to his old ways...

I honestly don't know how he made the cut last week. I think it was two negitives equal a positive. Bad form + bad weather = make the cut!

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 08:36PM

1st Round Matchups

7106 Fowler (-110) over Schwartzel (-120) 

7107 Moore (-120) over Mahan (-110) 

7114 Pettersson (-120) over Furyk (-110)  PUSH

 

Tournament Matchups

7008 Crane (+110) over Glover (-140) - 2*    EVEN

7015 Pettersson (+115) over Levin (-145) - 2*    1 Down

7022 Pernice Jr. (+130) over Adams (-160) - 2*    2 Down

 

 

 

209-234-49 YTD

-13.85 Units   

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 09:47PM

The Senior Open Championship

 

2nd Round Matchups

2003 Cook (-120) over T. Watson (-110) - 5*

2006 J. Haas (-120) over Funk (-110) - 2*

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
07/21/11 11:18PM

2nd Round Matchups

7004 Campbell (-125) over Rollins (-105) - 2*

7010 Two Gloves (+115) over Wi (-145)

7016 Fowler (-125) over Schwartzel (-105) - 2*

 

 

 

 GL

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 02:35PM

Classic high/low leaderboard play in the afternoon....Casey (-110) over Els.

Ernie beat him by 8 shots yesterday....and this matchup is almost a pick em'???? Emmm...I believe the line has moved towards Casey also.

Someone tell me why I shouldn't take Casey in this one??

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 10:52AM

Looking for Tommy to bounce back today. He's too good to have two sorry days back to back.

BL

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 11:01AM

 

Need a low round of the day by Cook.....

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 02:06PM

 

UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE is right!! Nice round by Cook...one of the low rounds of the day!

AJLightning says:
07/22/11 02:12PM

Looks like I finally have a good day in the makings....which is LONG OVERDUE!!

 

   

AJLightning says:
07/23/11 01:40PM
AJLightning says:
07/24/11 11:30AM

final round -

Levin -120 over Glover

 

more in a min....wanted to get this in first

AJLightning says:
07/24/11 11:41AM

7403 Levin -120 over Glover -110

7406 Tringale -110 over Cantlay -120

AJLightning says:
07/24/11 12:02PM

Final Round Matchups

7403 Levin (-120) over Glover (-110)

7406 Tringale (-110) over Cantlay (-120)

7414 Campbell (+110) over Moore (-140) - 2*

7420 Romero (+110) over Ogilvy (-140) - 2*

 

 

 

WeMoveLines says:
07/22/11 12:15AM
I'm fading Two Gloves this tourney.. Maybe he'll bounce back tomorrow.. BOL!
WeMoveLines says:
07/23/11 12:25AM

Looks like I'm against ya tomorrow..

I got Cantlay and Kelly...

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