AJLightning's Blog

**AJ's Picks - 93rd PGA Championship**

By AJLightning | View all Posts
Posted Monday, August 08, 2011 08:49 PM   69 comments

Oh my...are the players in for a treat this week. They get to play the redesigned (Rees Jones), battle proofed Atlanta Athletic Club! The course will be totally different than 2001 when the last Major was held. Fairways are tighter, bunkers and doglegs were added as well. The greens will be fast and hard. It's going to take someone who can control their spin and hit it in the right quadrant. And it's easier to do that if your in the fairway.

 

 

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AJLightning says:
08/08/11 09:02PM

I'm going to go through the Tournament Matchups and just pick who first comes to mind. Would like to watch the line movement as well as discuss the matchups. Good luck guys!! It's going to be an exciting week!!

 

AJLightning says:
08/08/11 09:31PM

McIlroy -115 over Donald

Phil -135 over Eldrick - Who's game is better right now?

Fowler Ev over Scott - Last week's winner fade??

Stricker -160 over Dustin

Watney -105 over Kuchar - Where's Kuchar been??

Day -150 over Sergio

Mahan +110 over Choi

Simpson -160 over Yang

Howell III -115 over Woodland

Ishikawa +105 over Baddeley - BIG PLAY ALERT!! 

McDowell +110 over B. Haas

Jacobson -125 over Laird

Kim +110 over Furyk -

P. Hanson -110 over Karlsson - Try this again?

Paddy +110 over Els

Poulter -105 over Casey - Better ball striker

Rose +105 over Moore

Marino +120 over Palmer

JB Ev over Romero

Bjorn -140 over Clarke -

Toms -130 over Schwartzel

Kaymer -140 over Eldrick

Stricker -150 over Phil

McIlroy -110 over Westwood

Jacobson -110 over Choi

Ishikawa Ev over K. Bradley

Hoffman -120 over Oosthuizen

Cink -120 over Allenby

Goosen -150 over Els

VJ -105 over Byrd - If he has the putter going??

Yang -125 over Kim

Howell III -145 over Love III

O'Hair +135 over Overton -

Senden -105 over Allenby

Glover +105 over Snedeker

Eldrick +140 over Scott - Not sure about this one

Zach -145 over Bubba

Watney -150 over Dustin

McIlroy -220 over Eldrick

Westwood -115 over Donald

thisguyiswise says:
08/08/11 09:56PM
good luck this week aj


thisguyiswise says:
08/08/11 10:01PM
tiger zach johnson or fowler for a pool?  just one lean to fowler

day or dustin johnson? lean to day

think its rorys week personally 
AJLightning says:
08/08/11 10:08PM

 

AJLightning says:
08/08/11 10:11PM

Zach

Day

Rory Top 10 for sure!

lifemisspent says:
08/08/11 10:30PM

I think you mean 25-1

AJLightning says:
08/08/11 10:39PM

 

lifemisspent says:
08/08/11 10:52PM

LOL,

Lucky draw................well good luck sir.

Bluefin says:
08/09/11 08:13AM

Let us not forget the weather this week in the deep south...

dog day heat and humdity look for the thin and the young to play with a little edge...the super fit

AJLightning says:
08/09/11 09:22AM

I agree...I also think a veteran ball striker with PATIENCE will do well too.

Ponch says:
08/09/11 10:58AM
My top 10 -

Dustin Johnson
Bubba Watson
Rory McIlroy
Andres Romero
Zach Johnson
Lee Westwood
Luke Donald
Adam Scott
Charl Schwartzel
Steve Stricker
AJLightning says:
08/09/11 11:05AM

Not bad....don't like Schwartzel because he only hits about 55% of the fairways. You can get away with that in most places, but not at AAC.

Good Luck  

HokieFrosty says:
08/09/11 11:18AM

Actually, it looks to be much cooler than in recent weeks down in the ATL.  Highs only in the mid-80s on the weekend with a decent chance of rain expected throughout the week:

WeMoveLines says:
08/09/11 02:54PM

BOL AJ

Kim +110 over Furyk -   

 

''Let us not forget the weather this week in the deep south...

dog day heat and humdity look for the thin and the young to play with a little edge...the super fit ''

John Daly not a good pick then?

Actually he's trimmed down pretty good..

Guess it's Phil's 'Man titties' we should be worried about...

Chus says:
08/09/11 04:10PM
Phil isn't the only one with man boobs.  Lee Westwood has got a pair of bitch tits as well.   Why either of these guys wear tight shirts is a mystery to me.
b18swim says:
08/09/11 04:18PM

AJ

I have been following you pretty much all season and really do not say much...Quick question though...you have Kaymer -140 over Eldrick....Who the Hell is Eldrick? I don't see him even on the players list let alone the wager board.

whevans says:
08/09/11 04:37PM


try google: "eldrick golf"

see what hits...
b18swim says:
08/09/11 04:43PM
hhaha I feel like an idiot now...sorry about that. Keep up the good work
b18swim says:
08/09/11 04:46PM

Can you give me some pointers on why you think Fowler can beat Scott over a weekend?

I think Scott is on fire right now and I to not think the young Fowler can keep up with him.

FYI I love the Ishikawa and Bjorn plays

AJLightning says:
08/09/11 07:38PM

The thought with that one is you fade last week's winner. It's extremely difficult to win two weeks in a row, especially when the second tourny is a Major. A lot of things go on after they win. It can be mentally and physically draining. That's why most of the players take a week or two off after a win. This system, if you want to call it that, has a good track record over time.

Fowler is no punk either man. He's played really well as of late and is very close to breaking through.

 

AJLightning says:
08/09/11 10:46PM

Kind of like YES for Hole in One (+150)....anyone else?

 

stats1 says:
08/10/11 12:52AM
yes, i played it at +160  
KillerKardoogan says:
08/10/11 04:29AM

Ishikawa is now +145 vs Badd, and +130 vs KBrad

I'm coming after your title this week AJ

AJLightning says:
08/10/11 10:18AM

 

AJLightning says:
08/10/11 10:22AM

 

Colts03 says:
08/10/11 12:16PM


good luck this week AJ! 
Safe-Cracker says:
08/10/11 05:50PM

AJ  NEED SOME HOT PICKS THIS WEEK

 

WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT D. JOHNSON, GARCIA OR SIMPSONS CHANCES?

Bluefin says:
08/15/11 08:46AM

Jarrett75 says:
08/12/11 11:12AM


hmmm are you his accountant?
Jarrett75 says:
08/12/11 11:14AM
by the way Rose only 1 shot back of Mahan at the turn.
Jarrett75 says:
08/12/11 11:19AM
also Kim 1 shot back of Els.
Jarrett75 says:
08/13/11 11:37PM
gl aj. been an up and down tourney for me, mostly down.
Jarrett75 says:
08/14/11 01:27AM
sorry AJ, this guy is stalking me because I am pointing out he's posting fake bets. He said he bet 20k on the Mariner's -9900 to win $190. They were up 5-0 and there is zero chance the line was -9900 and even less of a chance he had 20k to bet.
Jarrett75 says:
08/14/11 01:33PM
allenby is a queer. If you remember he was my nemesis. I would bet against him he would win. So I decided to bet with him and he would lose. I think I won like 1 of 11 bets involving him. I don't have any money on Mannaesero, but was considering it. Good luck on your other plays.
qball1324 says:
08/12/11 03:59PM
Van Pelt sucks again
HokieFrosty says:
08/11/11 10:36AM
It looks like the players that are starting on the back are roaring out of the gate.  A lot of birdie streaks on 10 through 13.  And then it looks like they stumble as they get to the closing holes.  Ross Fisher is a good example: 4 birdies on the first 5 holes but finished the back with bogeys on 16 and 18.  Can you find a link anywhere with hole-by-hole stats?
HokieFrosty says:
08/11/11 10:39AM
8 out of the 10 players currently at -2 or better started on the back.
DrtySanchez says:
08/11/11 01:09AM
I like the Day play, GL AJL
DrtySanchez says:
08/12/11 12:12AM
I like the BVP play, GL AJL.  
Waxi says:
08/12/11 10:58AM

Its been a struggle all year for you AJ.

Rose +3 already and Kim +2 out of the gate this morning.

Waxi says:
08/14/11 01:43PM

Right on cue Allenby is going very low.

HMoney says:
08/11/11 05:07AM
Love that Watney play that was the only h2h  I was considering.    Good luck with Ryo get that nice payout   
AJLightning says:
08/11/11 09:16AM

GL DRTY!!

AJLightning says:
08/11/11 09:23AM

 

Too juicy, but I think it's golden!!

AJLightning says:
08/11/11 09:28AM

AND THEIR OFF!!!  

The winning score prop is a lock already!!!  

AJLightning says:
08/11/11 10:28AM

WTF Ishikawa?!!???

 

   

AJLightning says:
08/10/11 07:39PM

 

Simpson has the best chance to shine out of those three....

AJLightning says:
08/10/11 10:01PM

1st Round Matchups

7122 Choi (-125) over Furyk (-105) - 2*

7126 Howell III (-120) over B. Haas (-110)

7127 Kim (-110) over Els (-120)

7138 Day (-115) over Kuchar (-115) - 2*

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Watney (-110) over Kuchar (-120) - 2*

7020 Ishikawa (+135) over Baddeley (-165) - 5*

7025 Kim (+115) over Furyk (-145) - 2*

7033 Rose (Ev) over Moore (-130) - 2*

7040 Bjorn (-120) over Clarke (-110) - 2*

 

Will there be a Hole in One

Yes (+150)

 

Winning Score

Under 271.5 (-115) - 2*

 

 

 

 GL to all!!

AJLightning says:
08/11/11 02:32PM

 

Well, it's hard to some...here's some names of guys that are over par....

Cabrera

Toms

Laird

Quiros

Van Pelt

Poulter

Bubba

Moore

Overton

JB

Tiger

 

A lot of big names are struggling dude....plus it's the first day, always seems to be low scores on Day 1.

AJLightning says:
08/11/11 03:31PM
Badds finishes 7 over...still got a shot at that matchup!! Gonna need a great bounce back round from Ryo....
AJLightning says:
08/11/11 03:47PM
AJLightning says:
08/11/11 09:09PM

1st Round Matchups

7122 Choi (-125) over Furyk (-105) - 2* 

7126 Howell III (-120) over B. Haas (-110) 

7127 Kim (-110) over Els (-120)  PUSH

7138 Day (-115) over Kuchar (-115) - 2*  PUSH

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Watney (-110) over Kuchar (-120) - 2*    1 up

7020 Ishikawa (+135) over Baddeley (-165) - 5*    8 down  

7025 Kim (+115) over Furyk (-145) - 2*    3 down

7033 Rose (Ev) over Moore (-130) - 2*    4 up

7040 Bjorn (-120) over Clarke (-110) - 2*    4 up

 

Will there be a Hole in One

Yes (+150) - Pending

 

Winning Score

Under 271.5 (-115) - 2* - This is money, but I will wait to count it

 

 

 

232-259-55 YTD

-16.90 Units

AJLightning says:
08/11/11 10:54PM

2nd Round Matchups

7213 Kuchar (+105) over Day (-135) - 2*

7218 Rose (-115) over Mahan (-115)

7223 A. Kim (-115) over Els (-115) - 2*

7241 Manassero (+125) over Scott (-155)

7246 Van Pelt (-115) over Senden (-115)

 

 

 

AJLightning says:
08/14/11 08:33PM

Final Round Matchups

7401 Manassero (-115) over Allenby (-115) - 2* 

7404 Vegas (-110) over Kelly (-120) 

7409 Davis (+110) over Dyson (-140) - 2* 

7415 B. Haas (+110) over Sergio (-140)  PUSH

7431 Schwartzel (+105) over Scott (-135) 

7440 Dufner (-110) over Steele (-120) - 5* 

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Watney (-110) over Kuchar (-120) - 2* 

 

Will there be a Hole in One

Yes (+150) 

 

Winning Score

Under 271.5 (-115) - 2* 

 

 

 

238-268-56 YTD

-21.60 Units

AJLightning says:
08/14/11 10:40AM

 

AJLightning says:
08/14/11 10:45AM

Lean Verplank +115 over K. Bradley....I like the veteran with patience and moxy today!

 

AJLightning says:
08/13/11 10:19PM

2nd Round Matchups

7213 Kuchar (+105) over Day (-135) - 2* 

7218 Rose (-115) over Mahan (-115) 

7223 A. Kim (-115) over Els (-115) - 2* 

7241 Manassero (+125) over Scott (-155) 

7246 Van Pelt (-115) over Senden (-115) 

 

Tournament Matchups

7010 Watney (-110) over Kuchar (-120) - 2*    1 up

7020 Ishikawa (+135) over Baddeley (-165) - 5* 

7025 Kim (+115) over Furyk (-145) - 2*    

7033 Rose (Ev) over Moore (-130) - 2* 

7040 Bjorn (-120) over Clarke (-110) - 2* 

 

 

 

235-265-55 YTD

-23.10 Units

AJLightning says:
08/13/11 10:38PM

Final Round Matchups

7401 Manassero (-115) over Allenby (-115) - 2*

7404 Vegas (-110) over Kelly (-120)

7409 Davis (+110) over Dyson (-140) - 2*

7415 B. Haas (+110) over Sergio (-140)

7431 Schwartzel (+105) over Scott (-135)

7440 Dufner (-110) over Steele (-120) - 5*

 

 

 

  Sunday 6-Pack...GL fellas!!

AJLightning says:
08/12/11 02:11PM

Tell me about it...I hate it. Probably have the same feelings as Eldrick does. You know you can do it and you've done it with sucess in the past, but it's just not working out lately. Frustrating, but I'll keep plugging along and try to get back to even before the end of the year.

Rose lost his match, but Kim pulled it off vs. Els!!

I've won 2 out of my first 3 picks today (both 2*), so hopefully it will be a good day!

 

AJLightning says:
08/12/11 02:18PM

 

If the guy you bet on to win the matchup makes the cut and the other one doesn't, then that's a win!

If they both miss the cut, then it's whoever has the lowest score after two rounds.

For example...let's say you took Marino over Hoffman for the tournament. They both miss the cut. Marino finishes with a two day score of 147 and Hoffman's two day total is 148, then Marino is the winner!

Does this help you out dude??  

b18swim says:
08/12/11 02:25PM

Yes thanks man..

We need Ishikawa to start making a couple of birdies.

Its insane of how many excellent golfers might miss this cut.

b18swim says:
08/12/11 01:55PM

Question AJ...this might be a dumb one but I have never had this happen so I do not know how it works.

If I wagered on a tournament match-up and say the guy I bet on made the cut and the other guy didn't is that considered a win?

Also what if both missed the cut? Is that a push?

Please clear up for me. Thanks man

b18swim says:
08/11/11 02:35PM

Yea agreed...we need Ishikawa to have a hell of a Day 2.

I was surprised on how well Bubba started and then dropped

b18swim says:
08/11/11 02:13PM
Wow this golf course looks like its playing really really hard with all these high scores
b18swim says:
08/11/11 03:05PM
Insane
CheckMate22 says:
08/14/11 01:18AM


inb4lock
onTHEfritz says:
08/11/11 01:22AM
AJ, do you like Day to make the cut at -365?...I know its a lot of juice, but he has done really good in majors so far 
bullmoose says:
08/11/11 02:37PM
Add Weeb Simpson to that list over par
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