AJLightning's Blog

Posted Wednesday, May 27, 2009 11:35 PM

**AJ's Picks - Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial**

Old School golf this week! I love it!      
Colonial is a beautiful track with a tightly knit layout and small greens. Shot makers dream where you are rewarded for accuracy. 
 
 
1st Round Matchups
 
213 Marino (Ev) over Davis (-130)
 
230 Na (-115) over Wi (-115)
 
235 Kelly (-120) over Jacobson (-110)
 
253 Crane (-130) over Glover (Ev)
 
278 Clark (-120) over Poulter (-110)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
122-99-18 YTD


Posted Wednesday, May 20, 2009 11:37 PM

**AJ's Picks - Byron Nelson Championship**

Well, the Tour is in my neck of the woods the next two weeks! The Nelson in Irving and then The Colonial in Ft. Worth. Colonial is my favorite and I'll be there next weekend. Can't wait!
 
They've tweaked a few things this week that I believe will help out the shotmakers. Pin placements will be in different locations than in past years to maximize the undulations of the greens. I didn't see many matchups that I liked. But I feel confident in these. J.J. Henry is a SOLID PICK, but the books got him juiced. I would try to work him into a 2 or 3 man parlay if your book/local allows it. He was a consultant on the recent renovations to the course and sports a cool 69.19 scoring average here the last five years (4 tournaments).
 
 
1st Round Matchups
 
1013 Mahan (-120) over Sabbatini (-110)
 
1032 Byrd (-115) over Davis (-115)
 
1055 Verplank (-115) over Weir (-115)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
119-96-16 YTD


Posted Friday, May 15, 2009 11:08 AM

Mike Maddux is Jesus

 

 

 

 

Full Name: Mike Maddux
Title: Pitching Coach

Bio: FIRST YEAR:

Maddux enters his first season as the Texas pitching coach after being named to the position on Nov. 3, 2008 joins Jackie Moore (bench) and Dave Anderson (third base) as new hires for the 2009 campaigns coming off 6 seasons (2003-08) as pitching coach for the Milwaukee Brewers, which was the National League Wild Card club last season helped to conduct a pitching mini-camp at Rangers Ballpark in January 2009.



MILWAUKEE:

Joined the Rangers after 6 seasons as Brewers pitching coach from 2003-08 oversaw a Brewers staff that ranked 2nd in the N.L. with a 3.85 ERA in 2008, the lowest figure by a Milwaukee club in 16 years since registering a 3.43 ERA in 1992 the 3.85 figure was also over a half-run lower than in 2007, as the teams staff ERA dropped in each of the past 2 seasons the Brewers compiled ERAs below 4.00 in 2 of the past 4 seasons during his six seasons with the organization, Milwaukee produced the 5th best strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.12) in the National League.



COACHING EXPERIENCE:

Was the pitching coach for Double-A Round Rock in the Houston organization for over 2 seasons from the latter half of 2000 until 2002 his staff ranked 2nd in the Texas League with a 4.11 ERA in 2000, year that the Express won the league championship.


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Posted Wednesday, May 13, 2009 10:56 PM

**AJ's Picks - Valero Texas Open**

This is a week when you have to go low to win. Driving accuracy, not distance, is important at LaCantera. It's a lot easier of an approach shot when your in the short grass. Par Breakers is also an important angle as well.
 
 
1st Round Matchups
 
1013 J.J. Henry (-115) over Frazar (-115)
 
1020 Stroud (-110) over Wilkinson (-120)
 
1047 Hoffman (-120) over Ames (-110)
 
1049 Davis (-105) over Chopra (-125)
 
1071 D. Johnson (-110) over O'Hern (-120)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
116-92-15 YTD


Posted Wednesday, May 06, 2009 11:23 PM

**AJ's Picks - The Players Championship**

1st Round Matchups
 
1004 Furyk (-110) over Ogilvy (-120)
 
1035 Ames (-115) over Weekley (-115)
 
1038 Allenby (-135) over Immelman (+105)
 
1039 Love III (Ev) over Toms (-130)
 
1041 Perry (-120) over Casey (-110)
 
1118 Gay (-125) over Weir (-105)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
107-87-13 YTD


Posted Wednesday, April 29, 2009 10:59 PM

**AJ's Picks - Quail Hollow Championship**

1st Round Matchups
 
1013 Choi (-110) over Z. Johnson (-120)
 
1020 Cink (-125) over Cabrera (-105)
 
1037 Ogilvy (+110) over Phil (-140)
 
1052 O'Hair (-115) over Mahan (-115)
 
1089 Van Pelt (-105) over Kelly (-125)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
102-81-12 YTD


Posted Wednesday, April 22, 2009 11:13 PM

**AJ's Picks - Zurich Classic of New Orleans**

1st Round Matchups
 
101 Perry (-110) over Watney (-120)
 
126 Overton (+110) over Kuchar (-140)
 
155 Hoffman (-105) over Verplank (-125)
 
176 Wilkinson (-105) over Wi (-125) 
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
93-76-12 YTD


Posted Wednesday, April 15, 2009 11:12 PM

**AJ's Picks - Verizon Heritage**

 
1st Round Matchups
 
310 Boo (Ev) over Na (-130)
 
331 Trahan (-125) over D. Johnson (-105)
 
344 Casey (-135) over Baddeley (+105)
 
361 Kelly (+105) over Flesch (-135)
 
374 McIlroy (-130) over Els (Ev)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
86-69-11 YTD


Posted Wednesday, April 08, 2009 10:52 PM

**AJ's Picks - The Masters**

My favorite major! I get friday off, so I get to watch 3 days this year! Gonna stick with the hot players and I looked for the best matchups to exploit that. No newcomers or old timers (sorry Bluefin ). For some reason Sergio ended up being a fade for me. Maybe it's because he CAN'T PUTT or he's started off 76, 76 the last two years.
 
 
1st Round Matchups
 
1008 Casey (-120) over Sergio (-110)
 
1016 O'Hair (Ev) over Watney (-130)
 
1029 Leonard (-130) over Mahan (Ev)
 
1032 Clark (-125) over Appleby (-105)
 
1118 Ogilvy (-125) over Sergio (-105)
 
1149 Z. Johnson (Ev) over Sergio (-130)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
74-60-10 YTD


Posted Wednesday, April 01, 2009 10:15 PM

**AJ's Picks - Shell Houston Open**

Going with the ball strikers this week. GIR's are important.
 
1st Round Matchups
 
1116 Hoffman (-130) over Na (Ev) - Na ranks T114 in ball striking...Hoffman, T23.
 
1119 Baddeley (Ev) over Rose (-130)
 
1122 Choi (-105) over Kim (-125) - Choi 4th in GIR's  
 
1153 Glover (-115) over Crane (-115)
 
1179 Garrigus (-120) over V. Taylor (-110) - Taylor 145th in GIR's, Robert, 19th
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
73-56-10 YTD


Posted Wednesday, March 25, 2009 11:16 PM

**AJ's Picks - Arnold Palmer Invitational**

1st Round Matchups
 
114 O'Hair (-125) over Goggin (-105)
 
116 Mahan (-125) over Howell III (-105)
 
122 Glover (-105) over Crane (-125)
 
149 Goose (-110) over Furyk (-120)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
65-50-9 YTD


Posted Wednesday, March 18, 2009 11:23 PM

**AJ's Picks - Transitions Championship**

1st Round Matchups
 
1026 Glover (-115) over Slocum (-115)
 
1029 Appleby (-120) over Weekley (-110)
 
1049 Perry (+125) over Furyk (-155)
 
 
Top 10
 
221 O'Hair +165
234 Senden +400
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
59-46-7 YTD


Posted Tuesday, March 17, 2009 09:40 AM

Line Movement

Yesterday there were 10 games played...7 of those games had line movement.
 
Of the 7 that had line movement....5 won in which the line moved in the winners favor. Dog went to even odds or slight fav.  
 
No encoder ring needed here....
 
I found this interesting, hopefully some of you will too. I believe AJ mentioned yesterday that the lines are set before they know the lineups and sometimes the pitchers. The quicker you get that information, the better the line you can get. Obviously...
 
So why the late line movement?
 
Sharps   
 
Thoughts anyone??


Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2009 10:09 PM

**AJ's Picks - WGC CA Championship**

1st Round Matchups
 
140 Scott (-105) over Harrington (-125)
 
142 Ogilvy (-125) over Phil (-105)
 
144 Z. Johnson (Ev) over Els (-130)
 
162 Perez (-105) over Ames (-125)
 
163 Hoffman (-110) over Watney (-120)
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
49-39-6 YTD


Posted Wednesday, March 04, 2009 10:10 PM

**AJ's Picks - Honda Classic**

1st Round Matchups
 
101 Els (Ev) over Garcia (-130) Els playing better right now. And oh ya, he's the defending champ!
 
119 Lonard (-110) over Duke (-120) Average start: Lonard 71...Duke 74.5
 
128 J.J. Henry (-115) over Gay (-115) Better history at PGA National. J.J. T2 last week as well
 
135 Pettersson (-120) over Cabrera  (-110) Cabrera has a terrible record here. Last two years MC, MC. Average start: 75      Carl's average start: 72.5
 
149 Villegas (-105) over Garcia (-125) Are you kidding me with this line? Spider Man is HOT HOT HOT right now! Garcia T43 last year. Camilo T2, T24 in 07' and 08' respectively.
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
42-33-5 YTD   


Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2009 01:24 PM

Good book for Golf

 
OK fellas, apparently I'm getting hosed by BetUs.   
 
Everyone has trashed my lines I get for golf. Calling them "30 cent lines" and all that. 
 
1) Can someone explain "30 cent lines" in more detail. Not just "it's a shitty line" or "find a different book". I've never heard the term "30 cent lines" before yesterday. I would like to understand this a little better.
 
2) Can someone recommend a good book for golf without the so called "30 cent lines?"
 
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated 


Posted Tuesday, February 24, 2009 10:28 PM

**AJ's Picks - WGC Accenture Match Play**

Round 1 Matchups
 
105 Baddeley (-105) over Casey (-125)
 
113 Clark (-110) over Goosen (-120)
 
129 Perez (+125) over Harrington (-155)
 
162 Leonard (-105) over Romero (-125)
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
30-23-5 YTD   


Posted Tuesday, February 24, 2009 02:44 PM

Match Play Discussion - Early Leans

Ok fellas, just printed out the matchups from my book and after a quick glance there's a few that stand out to me. I'm looking at the lower juice picks or the ones I think are slam dunks!
 
Let's talk about these guys and get a concensus on who we think the winners might be. Fell free to add your own.
 
104 Casey (-130)
105 Baddeley (-110) - thinking Badds here
 
113 Clark (-115)
114 Goosen (-125) - Goose here
 
128 Harrington (-160)
129 Perez (+120) - WTF? Paddy is playing shitty right now
 
158 Quiros (-125) - don't know much about this guy.
159 Ames (-115) - Thinking Ames here
 
164 Rose (-115)
165 Booooo (-125) - Boo all day here? Thoughts?
 
182 Weir (-140)
183 Mahan (Ev) - I'm liking Hunter in this spot...anyone else?
 
 


Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 09:26 PM

Top 10 Bet - Northern Trust Open

651 John Rollins +600 for Top 10
 
50/300...is it
 
or 
 
 
 
 
what do you think? opinions? other  plays besides matchups?
 
 


Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 05:13 PM

**AJ's Picks - Northern Trust Open**

Another week, another tournament...boy what a life they lead! I'd give anything to be a pro golfer. Just as long as I make a couple of cuts and make more money in a year than I do now! All I can do is dream and bet on these guys though....
 
1st Round Matchups
 
110 Z. Johnson (-115) over Perry (-115)  just cause I hate Perry...oh, and Zach is en fuego
 
122 Choi (-120) over Campbell (-110)  Choi seems to start strong here year after year
 
153 Allenby (ev) over Els (-130)  Els is DONE
 
186 Rollins (-115) over Imada (-115)  tough one here, but Rollins seems to show up for this tourny 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
24-19-4 YTD 


Posted Thursday, February 12, 2009 09:36 AM

**AJ's Picks - Pebble Beach National Pro Am**

1st Round Matchups
 
1111 Weir (-145) over Goosen (+115)
 
1114 Love III (-105) over Toms (-125)
 
1st Round 2 Balls
 
7022 Mahan (ev) over Love III (ev)
 
7026 Pavin (+105) over Maggert (-105)
 
Not sure why my book took so long to put out the 1st round matchups. I waited till almost 10 o'clock last night, and they still were not up. Now I'm tired. Anyway, got em locked and loaded and the Fantasy Team ready to go!
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
20-17-3 YTD 


Posted Sunday, February 08, 2009 01:23 PM

N.O./MINN **Funky Lines**

Anyone else notice this crap
 
64% on N.O. side and the line is down 1.5 pts. to N.O -2.5, -3 in some places
should be -5.5 to -6...right?
 
AND...63% on the OVER and the line is down 2.5 pts.??? opened at 191.5...now 189
 


Posted Wednesday, February 04, 2009 11:07 PM

**AJ's Picks - Buick Invitational**

1st Round Matchups
 
117 Sutherland (-135) over Curtis (+105)
 
128 Pettersson (-120) over Goggin (-110)
 
1st Round - 3 Ball
 
1 Baird +135
2 Quigley +175
3 Frazar +220
 
 
 
 GL to all
 
 
 
16-11-2 YTD 


Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2009 02:33 PM

**AJ's Picks - Dubai Desert Classic**

bad read last week on the euro tour for me...small play to start off
 
Top 4 Finish
 
Karlsson +300
 
 
 
 GL to all


Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2009 02:25 PM

**AJ's Picks - FBR Open**

11-9-1 YTD   
 
need to get back on the winning side this week
 
 
 
1st Round Matchups
 
105 Villegas (-115) over Ogilvy - Ogilvy missed the cut here the last two years. I think the atomsphere suits Villegas better
 
119 J.B. Holmes (-130) over Trahan - Same here. D.J. missed the cut the last two years. J.B. is defending champ!
 
125 Curtis (-130) over Verplank - Still pissed at Verplank...hopefully he makes me money this time around.
 
138 Na (-130) over Cabrera - Na tied for 4th last year...enough said.
 
 
 GL to all


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